You know who’s probably most excited about NFL football returning for the 2018 season?
Not the fans. Not the oddsmakers, bookies or people with money to burn. Maybe not even the NFL players and their bank accounts. Who’s most excited has to be the NFL owners, because their offseason was absolutely brutal.
President Donald Trump continuously blasted the league because of the National Anthem kneeling controversy that nobody has figured out to squelch in the two years after Colin Kaepernick began protesting. The league owners have tried to appease him, but Trump hasn’t yet been satisfied. Some of the players have defied him, and some fans have blasted them for doing so. Some fans have probably even boycotted the league. It’s a big mess, and the only way it’ll go away—at least, temporarily—is for the players to suit up, take the field (before or after the anthem plays) and start knocking their helmets together.
Oh, and speaking of Kaepernick, he became the face of Nike’s latest Just Do It campaign this week, and it’s already divided much of the NFL-loving world.
So, basically, football can’t come soon enough to change the subject (whether the subject should be changed is another matter entirely, but that’s for somebody else to write about). And since just about everybody wants to read predictions of what will happen in Week 1, you’ve come to the right place.
Last year, I chose three games per week to write about, based on 1) how sure I was one team would triumph in its contest, 2) how frightened I was at picking the winner of another game, and 3) how much fun one last matchup would be to watch. Nothing has changed for me at Pickwatch heading into this season. Hopefully, my picking record will improve (after dominating the NFL picks game in 2015 and 1016, I was only a better-than-average 175-92 last season. We also don’t need to talk about my 124-126 against the spread mark, other than to say that I was hacked or that it’s fake news or something else).
But either way, my writing and prognosticating will be just as clever and poignant as ever. It will also win you millions. And away we go.
1)Bet your life savings on this game*
Bills at Ravens
You could almost hear the shock around the league last weekend when the Bills announced they would start Nathan Peterman at quarterback. “Shock” is probably the wrong word. More like it was met with a little bit of a chuckle, a slight headshake and an eye roll, and plenty of sad resignation if you had any intention of rooting for Buffalo this year. Peterman’s claim to fame in the NFL is putting together this line in his starting debut in Week 10 of last season. 6 of 14, 66 yards, 0 TDs, 5 INTs, 17.9 QB rating To put it mildly, it’s impossible for people to forget something that was so very putrid (remember, all five picks occurred in the first half). Now, Peterman has beaten out first-round pick Josh Allen to pilot the Bills, who made the playoffs for the first time in 18 years last season but who are expected to badly regress in 2018. Peterman has had a good preseason, but expect the Ravens to be ready to roast him, especially with what figures to be a terrible offensive line in Buffalo.
Straight up: Ravens Against the Spread: Ravens -7
2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 14-5 S/U and 9-10 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Cowboys at Panthers
Ezekiel Elliott is going to have to be so huge for Dallas this year. The Cowboys have lost Jason Witten and Dez Bryant from last year’s squad—and the 132 catches and 11 touchdowns they combined to produce—and their replacements (Geoff Swaim and Allen Hurd, respectively) aren’t exactly superstars. Elliott missed six games last year, and he still almost ran for 1,000 yards. He is the one the team must count on the most. But the offensive line is hurting, and that could help hinder Elliott’s production. Meanwhile, the Panthers have solid receivers, a fun running back in Christian McCaffrey, and a top-10 quarterback in Cam Newton. This should be an interesting contest to watch, and though I’m pretty confident Carolina will prevail at home, Elliott frightens me just a little.
Straight up: Panthers Against the Spread: Panthers -3
2017 record for “This game scares the hell out of me: game: 10-9 S/U and 10-8-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Jets at Lions
The man reason why this matchup will be fun to watch is because Sam Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick, will be the only rookie quarterback to start in Week 1, and he’ll go against a Detroit squad that was fourth in the league last year with 19 interceptions. Plus, new Detroit coach Matt Patricia, New England’s former defensive coordinator, likely will have something surprising for Darnold. But the Lions were mediocre (or worse) on defense last year, and it’s pretty well established that the Matt Stafford-led offense will have to be the engine for the team once again. Maybe Darnold will impressive, anyway. After all, he played well in the preseason, and he was good enough for New York to trade away Teddy Bridgewater. But I think Darnold will have a tough time keeping up with Detroit’s offense. Beware, though. As the Detroit Free Press (https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2018/09/03/detroit-lions-new-york-jets-sam-darnold/1186075002/) reminds us, Darnold will be the first rookie quarterback to make his pro debut vs. the Lions since Matt Ryan in 2008. Ryan’s first passing attempt? A 62-yard touchdown en route to a 34-21 loss for Detroit.
Straight up: Lions Against the Spread: Lions -7
2017 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 13-6 S/U and 10-8-1 ATS 2017 record for every game picked in this column: 37-20 S/U and 29-26-2 ATS 2017 overall record: 175-92 S/U 124-126 ATS
S/U ATS ATL over PHI PHI +3 BAL over BUF BAL -7 JAC over NYG JAC -3 NO over TB TB +9.5 NE over HOU NE -6.5 MIN over SF MIN -6 MIA over TEN TEN -1 CIN over IND CIN +3 PIT over CLE PIT -4 LAC over KC KC +3 DEN over SEA DEN -3 CAR over DAL CAR -3 ARI over WAS ARI -1 GB over CHI CHI +7.5 DET over NYJ DET -7 LAR over OAK LAR -4.5
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.