Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/4/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Kansas City Royals hit the road to face the Boston Red Sox.

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Boston Red Sox -155 on BetRivers
Best Spread Odds: Boston Red Sox -1.0 (-108) on BetRivers
Best Total Odds: Under 9.5 (-110) on ESPN BET

Game Info

Date: August 4, 2025
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV: NESN and FDSKC

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Preview

This Monday night matchup at Fenway Park features two of the American League's hottest teams. The Boston Red Sox, with a 62-51 record, are riding a five-game winning streak, including a recent sweep of the Houston Astros. They've been particularly dominant at home, boasting a 37-21 record, which is among the best in MLB. Their offense has been consistent, ranking 5th in batting average and slugging percentage, and they lead the league in doubles. Key offensive contributors include Trevor Story, who has 69 RBIs, and Jarren Duran, with 117 hits and 18 stolen bases. On the mound for Boston will be Brayan Bello, who holds a 7-5 record with a 3.19 ERA.

The Kansas City Royals, standing at 56-56, are also in strong form, having won four of their last five games and taking two out of three from the Toronto Blue Jays. They are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 13 contests. Their lineup features Bobby Witt Jr., who is hitting .285 with 16 home runs, and Vinnie Pasquantino, adding power with 18 home runs. The Royals will start newly acquired left-hander Bailey Falter, who comes in with a 7-5 record and a 3.73 ERA. Both teams have some players on the Injured List, including several long-term absences for the Red Sox and a few key players for the Royals.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The pitching matchup between Bailey Falter for the Royals and Brayan Bello for the Red Sox brings some interesting historical individual matchups. Falter has faced the current Boston Red Sox roster in limited plate appearances, with Alex Bregman (1 hit, 2 walks in 5 at-bats), Abraham Toro (1 hit, 1 double in 2 at-bats), Rob Refsnyder (1 hit in 2 at-bats), and Trevor Story (1 hit in 1 at-bat) showing some success against him. Jarren Duran has yet to record a hit in 2 at-bats against Falter.

On the other side, Brayan Bello has a more extensive history against the Kansas City Royals' current lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. has performed well against Bello, with 3 hits and a double in 8 at-bats, along with a walk. Salvador Perez has also found success, hitting 2 singles and a home run in 5 at-bats, drawing a walk. Adam Frazier has been particularly effective, with 3 hits, a triple, and a home run in 6 at-bats, plus a walk. Kyle Isbel has 2 hits and a double in 7 at-bats. Jonathan India, however, has struggled against Bello, going hitless in 4 at-bats with a walk.

While Bello has had some past issues at home, the Red Sox as a team have been playing exceptionally well at Fenway Park, which is known to be a hitter-friendly venue with a Park Factor of 105, favoring runs and doubles.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

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The Boston Red Sox are the pick here. They are playing with significant momentum, having won five consecutive games and sweeping their last series. Their home record of 37-21 is among the best in MLB, indicating a strong home-field advantage. While the Kansas City Royals are also playing well, the Red Sox's overall team performance, combined with the sharp money leaning towards Boston (58.81% sharp win percentage on the moneyline), gives them the edge in this matchup. Brayan Bello has been a consistent starter for Boston, and the team's offensive depth should be able to capitalize on opportunities at Fenway Park.

Top Player Prop Picks

Jarren Duran (BOS) - Hits Over 0.5

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Jarren Duran has been a consistent hitter for the Red Sox, and his recent form suggests he's likely to get a hit in this game. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10 games. Over the entire season, he has hit the over in 70.54% of his games, averaging 1.06 hits per game. When playing at home, his over hit percentage rises to 74.58%, with an average of 1.14 hits. Against the Royals in 2025, he has hit the over in 66.67% of his matchups. Given these strong trends, taking the over on his hits prop is a favorable play. You can find the best odds for this prop at -235 on BetMGM.

Brayan Bello (BOS) - Pitcher Strikeouts Over 3.5

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Brayan Bello has demonstrated a strong ability to rack up strikeouts recently. He has hit the over on 3.5 strikeouts in 100% of his last 5 games, averaging 5.6 strikeouts, and 80% of his last 10 games, averaging 5.0 strikeouts. His season-long over hit percentage stands at 68.42%, with an average of 4.37 strikeouts. At home, he has hit the over in 61.54% of his starts, averaging 4.54 strikeouts. While his 2024 performance against the Royals saw him hit the over in 50% of his starts, his recent form is very encouraging. The best odds for this prop are -146 on Fanduel.

Trevor Story (BOS) - Hits Over 0.5

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Trevor Story has been consistently getting on base, making the over on his hits prop an attractive option. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 100% of his last 5 games, averaging 1.8 hits, and 70% of his last 10 games, averaging 1.1 hits. For the season, he has hit the over in 62.16% of his games, with an average of 0.97 hits. When playing at Fenway Park, his over hit percentage improves to 66.67%, averaging 1.02 hits. Although his 2025 performance against the Royals shows a lower hit rate (66.67% over in 3 games, averaging 0.67 hits), his recent overall form is very strong. You can find the best odds for this prop at -240 on BetRivers.

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