Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 1/5/2025 4:25 PM EST

We have your Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Odds Info

Best Moneyline Odds: Kansas City Chiefs +430 (Caesars) / Denver Broncos -590 (BetRivers)
Best Spread Odds: -10.5 - Kansas City Chiefs -108 (BetRivers) / Denver Broncos -105 (ESPN BET)
Best Total Odds: 39.5 - Under -105 (ESPN BET) / Over -110 (Caesars)

Game Info

Date: 1/5/2025
Time: 4:25 PM EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, CO)
TV: CBS

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the past two seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos have faced each other three times, with the Chiefs winning two of those encounters and the Broncos securing one victory. Notably, all three games were won by the home team, with the visiting team failing to secure a win in any of these matchups. Against the spread, the Broncos have covered twice, while the Chiefs have managed to cover once. In terms of scoring, all three games have gone under the projected over-under line, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring contests between these two teams. The Chiefs have generally been the favorites in these matchups, as indicated by their lower moneyline odds in two of the games.

The most recent game between the Chiefs and the Broncos took place on November 10, 2024, with the Broncos emerging victorious with a narrow 16-14 win. The Broncos, playing as the underdogs with a closing spread of +7.5, managed to cover the spread, while the game total of 30 points fell well below the over-under line of 42.5. Key plays included a 6-yard touchdown pass from Bo Nix to Devaughn Vele and a 32-yard touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, which gave the Broncos a 14-3 lead. The Chiefs responded with a 2-yard touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce, and two field goals by Harrison Butker, but ultimately fell short. The game was characterized by strong defensive performances, with the Chiefs recording four sacks and the Broncos two, and a crucial blocked field goal by the Broncos' defense in the final moments.

In the other two games from the 2023 season, the Chiefs won both matchups, with a 19-8 victory at home on October 12 and a 24-9 win on the road on October 29. In the October 12 game, the Chiefs, as the favorites, covered the spread of -10.5, while the total score of 27 points went under the closing over-under of 47.5. The Chiefs' defense was particularly effective, recording four sacks and forcing three turnovers. In the October 29 game, the Broncos, as the underdogs, covered the spread of +7.0, with the total score of 33 points again falling under the over-under line of 46.5. The Broncos' defense was instrumental in this game, forcing five turnovers, including two interceptions. Overall, these matchups have been characterized by strong defensive efforts and lower-than-expected scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos are set to clash in a pivotal Week 18 matchup at Empower Field at Mile High. With the Chiefs having already secured the AFC's top seed and a first-round bye, head coach Andy Reid has opted to rest several key starters, including star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This decision opens the door for backup quarterback Carson Wentz to take the reins, providing him with a valuable opportunity to showcase his skills and potentially increase his value for the upcoming offseason.

For the Broncos, this game carries significant weight as they aim to secure their first playoff berth since 2015. Denver enters the contest with a 9-7 record and controls its own destiny; a win or tie against the Chiefs would clinch the AFC's final playoff spot. The Broncos have shown resilience throughout the season, bouncing back from recent setbacks with a determined mindset. Head coach Sean Payton has emphasized the importance of embracing the pressure and playing with a sense of freedom, a sentiment echoed by his players.

Despite the Chiefs' decision to rest their starters, the Broncos are not taking their opponents lightly. Denver's defense, led by standout performances from players like Zach Allen, will need to maintain its intensity to contain the Chiefs' offense, even with Wentz at the helm. The Broncos' offense, spearheaded by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, will look to capitalize on the opportunity to face a less experienced Chiefs lineup. Nix has shown promise in his debut season, and his ability to lead the Broncos to victory in this high-stakes game could cement his status as a rising star in the league.

Historically, the Broncos have struggled against the Chiefs, but they managed to snap a 16-game losing streak to Kansas City with a decisive 24-9 victory at home last season. This time, with the stakes even higher, Denver will rely on its home-field advantage and the support of its fans to propel them to a crucial win. As the Broncos aim to end their playoff drought, the Chiefs will use this game as an opportunity to rest and prepare for their postseason run, making for an intriguing matchup with contrasting motivations.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Pick: Total Points Over

As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to face the Denver Broncos in a Week 18 showdown, the betting line for total points is set at 39.5. Despite the Chiefs resting key starters, including Patrick Mahomes, the potential for a high-scoring game remains. The Broncos, with their playoff hopes on the line, are expected to bring their best offensive effort, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Nix has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season, and with the Chiefs fielding a less experienced lineup, Denver's offense could capitalize on this opportunity to put points on the board.

Historically, matchups between these two teams have trended towards lower scores, with all three of their recent encounters going under the projected over-under line. However, the dynamics of this game are different. The Broncos are in a win-and-in scenario, which could lead to a more aggressive offensive approach. Additionally, the Chiefs' decision to rest their starters might result in a less formidable defensive effort, providing the Broncos with more scoring opportunities.

Furthermore, the Broncos' defense, while strong, will face a Chiefs team eager to prove themselves despite the absence of their star players. Carson Wentz, stepping in for Mahomes, has a chance to showcase his abilities and potentially boost his value for the upcoming offseason. This motivation could lead to unexpected offensive production from the Chiefs, contributing to a higher total score.

Given the circumstances, the potential for both teams to exceed expectations offensively is significant. The Broncos' urgency to secure a playoff spot, combined with the Chiefs' desire to maintain momentum heading into the postseason, sets the stage for a game that could surpass the 39.5 total points line. As such, betting on the over appears to be a compelling choice for this matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Top Player Prop Picks

Bo Nix Over 218.5 Passing Yards -110 (bet365)

Bo Nix has been a pivotal figure for the Denver Broncos this season, and with the team's playoff hopes hanging in the balance, he is expected to deliver a strong performance against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be resting several key starters, including Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs' decision to rest their starters provides Nix with an opportunity to exploit a less experienced defensive lineup. Throughout the season, Nix has shown flashes of brilliance, and with the Broncos in a win-and-in scenario, he will likely be given the green light to air it out. Given the circumstances and the stakes, Nix surpassing 218.5 passing yards seems a plausible outcome.

Courtland Sutton Over 64.5 Receiving Yards -115 (bet365)

Courtland Sutton has been a reliable target for Bo Nix, and with the Broncos' playoff aspirations on the line, Sutton is poised to play a significant role in the passing game. The Chiefs' defense, missing several starters, presents an opportunity for Sutton to exploit mismatches and accumulate significant yardage. Sutton's ability to make big plays, as evidenced by his 32-yard touchdown reception in their previous encounter, underscores his potential to exceed the 64.5 receiving yards mark. With the Broncos likely to adopt an aggressive offensive approach, Sutton is expected to be a focal point in their game plan.

Carson Wentz Over 0.5 Interceptions +115 (bet365)

Carson Wentz, stepping in for the rested Patrick Mahomes, will have the chance to showcase his skills against a Broncos defense that has been formidable throughout the season. However, Wentz's history of turnovers, combined with the pressure of stepping into a high-stakes game, increases the likelihood of him throwing at least one interception. The Broncos' defense, led by standout performances from players like Zach Allen, will be eager to capitalize on any mistakes made by Wentz. With the Broncos' playoff hopes on the line, their defense will be playing with heightened intensity, making it plausible for Wentz to throw an interception during the game.