Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 11/17/2024 4:25 PM EST

We have your Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to face the Buffalo Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Odds Info

Best Moneyline Odds: Kansas City Chiefs +115 (BetMGM) / Buffalo Bills -130 (BetMGM)
Best Spread Odds: -2.5 - Kansas City Chiefs -110 (bet365) / -2.0 - Buffalo Bills -110 (DraftKings)
Best Total Odds: 46.5 - Under -110 (bet365) / Over -110 (bet365)

Game Info

Date: 11/17/2024
Time: 4:25 PM EST
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
TV: CBS

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the past three seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills have faced each other three times. In these matchups, the visiting team has consistently emerged victorious, with the Chiefs winning once and the Bills securing two victories. The Chiefs' lone win came in the most recent encounter, while the Bills triumphed in the two prior games. Against the spread, the Bills have covered twice, while the Chiefs have managed to cover once. In terms of total points, the games have gone over the set line once and under twice, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring affairs in these matchups.

The most recent game between the Chiefs and the Bills took place on January 21, 2024, during the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning 27-24. The game was closely contested, with the Chiefs overcoming a halftime deficit to secure the win. Kansas City was the underdog with a closing spread of +2.5, and they managed to cover the spread with their three-point victory. The total score of 51 points exceeded the closing over-under line of 45.5, marking the only instance in the last three meetings where the game went over. Key statistics from this game include the Chiefs' 361 total yards and 21 first downs, compared to the Bills' 368 yards and 27 first downs. Both teams demonstrated strong rushing performances, with the Chiefs gaining 146 yards on the ground and the Bills accumulating 182 rushing yards.

In the two previous encounters, the Bills emerged victorious, both times as the visiting team. On December 10, 2023, the Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17, covering the spread as underdogs with a closing line of +1.5. The total score of 37 points fell well below the over-under line of 49, resulting in an under. Earlier, on October 16, 2022, the Bills again won on the road, defeating the Chiefs 24-20. In this game, the Bills covered the spread as favorites with a closing line of -2.5, and the total score of 44 points also resulted in an under, as it was below the over-under line of 54.5. These games highlight the Bills' ability to perform well on the road against the Chiefs, with both victories coming as the visiting team.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling encounter at Highmark Stadium. The Chiefs, riding a remarkable 15-game winning streak, including a perfect 9-0 start to the season, are looking to extend their dominance. Their recent victories have been characterized by narrow margins, showcasing their resilience and ability to perform under pressure. Patrick Mahomes, despite not having his best statistical season, continues to lead the Chiefs with poise, particularly in high-stakes situations. His record as an underdog is formidable, and he will be keen to maintain his unbeaten streak against the Bills in regular-season play.

On the other side, the Bills are on a five-game winning streak, boasting an 8-2 record. They have been impressive offensively, consistently scoring over 30 points in recent games. Josh Allen has been a key figure in their success, especially in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs, where he has outperformed Mahomes. However, the Bills face injury concerns, with key players like Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid potentially sidelined. Despite these challenges, Buffalo's defense has been a strong point, particularly in the red zone, and they will look to leverage their home advantage to halt the Chiefs' unbeaten run.

This matchup is not just a battle for supremacy in the AFC but also a potential preview of a postseason encounter. The Chiefs have had the upper hand in playoff meetings, but the Bills have shown they can compete with Kansas City in the regular season. With both teams having potent offenses and defenses capable of making crucial stops, this game is poised to be a high-scoring affair, defying the trend of their recent encounters. As the Bills aim to end the Chiefs' streak and assert their own dominance, fans can expect a captivating contest that could have significant implications for the playoff picture.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Pick: Total Points Over

The upcoming clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams boasting potent offenses that have the potential to light up the scoreboard. The Chiefs, despite their recent trend of close games, have shown an ability to score in crucial moments, averaging 24.3 points per game. Patrick Mahomes, known for his prowess in high-pressure situations, has led the Chiefs to an average of 32.2 points per game when playing as an underdog, a scenario they find themselves in this week. This suggests that the Chiefs are more than capable of putting up significant points, especially against a Bills defense that, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in the absence of key players like Matt Milano.

On the other side, the Bills have been on an offensive tear, scoring at least 30 points in four of their last five games. Josh Allen has been instrumental in this offensive surge, particularly in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs, where he has consistently outperformed Mahomes. The Bills' offense, averaging 29.0 points per game, is well-equipped to exploit any defensive lapses by the Chiefs, who have allowed an average of 17.9 points per game. However, the Chiefs' defense has shown signs of bending, especially in recent games where they have relied on last-minute heroics to secure victories.

Given the offensive firepower on both sides and the stakes of this matchup, it is reasonable to expect a high-scoring game that surpasses the current over/under line of 46.5 points. The Chiefs' recent games have often been decided by narrow margins, but the presence of two elite quarterbacks in Mahomes and Allen, both capable of orchestrating explosive plays, suggests that this game could easily turn into a shootout. With both teams having a history of high-scoring encounters, particularly in regular-season play, the over is a compelling pick for this marquee matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Top Player Prop Picks

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Tds +110 (FanDuel)

Patrick Mahomes has consistently demonstrated his ability to perform under pressure, especially in high-stakes games like the upcoming matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Despite not having his best statistical season, Mahomes has a history of rising to the occasion, particularly when the Chiefs are considered underdogs. With an impressive record of 11-3 straight-up as an underdog, Mahomes averages 281.9 passing yards and 32.2 points per game in such scenarios. The Bills' defense, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities, particularly with key players like Matt Milano potentially sidelined. Given Mahomes' track record and the Chiefs' need to maintain their winning streak, betting on Mahomes to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +110 odds presents a compelling opportunity.

Josh Allen Over 237.5 Passing Yards -110 (bet365)

Josh Allen has been a pivotal figure in the Bills' offensive success, especially in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs. In the last three regular-season games against Kansas City, Allen has averaged 292.3 passing yards per game, showcasing his ability to exploit the Chiefs' defense. With the Bills' offense averaging 29.0 points per game and Allen's penchant for high-yardage performances, particularly at home, the over on 237.5 passing yards is an attractive proposition. Despite potential injuries to key receivers, Allen's versatility and ability to adapt make him a strong candidate to surpass this yardage line, especially in a game that could turn into a shootout.

Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards -110 (bet365)

Travis Kelce remains a crucial component of the Chiefs' offensive arsenal, particularly in games where Patrick Mahomes needs a reliable target. Kelce's ability to find space and make significant plays is well-documented, and his chemistry with Mahomes is a key factor in the Chiefs' offensive strategy. Despite the Bills' defensive strengths, Kelce's role as a primary receiver, especially in high-pressure situations, makes the over on 67.5 receiving yards a strong pick. With Mahomes likely to rely on his trusted tight end to navigate Buffalo's defense, Kelce is poised to have a significant impact, making this prop bet a worthwhile consideration.