The Patriots lost badly to the Chiefs last Thursday night. I didn’t expect that.
The Bears nearly beat the Falcons on Sunday (and probably should have). I didn’t expect that either. The Ravens shut out and embarrassed the Bengals. I certainly didn’t expect that.
Hey, everybody, the NFL is officially back, and just like every year, games we think we know the answers to end up slapping us in the face. Picking games is tough. Picking them against the spread is even harder. If we had any thoughts that the 2017 NFL season might be any different, well, now we know better.
As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 2 picks. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).
1)Bet your life savings on this game*
Jets at Raiders
The Jets are horrendous (or at least they were last week), and the Raiders are going to compete for the AFC West title. Here’s what I hated about the Jets in Week 1 vs. the Bills: Bilal Powell and Matt Forte combined to rush for 38 yards. I didn’t expect much from this duo at this point in their careers, but man, that’s terrible. Meanwhile, here’s what I loved about the Raiders beating the Titans on the road last week: Quarterback Derek Carr looked great, running back Marshawn Lynch played solidly and kicker Giorgio Tavecchio couldn’t stop booming those 50-plus yard field goals. Jets quarterback Josh McCown has lost the last eight games he’s started. You can be sure Oakland will extend that streak to nine.
Straight up: Raiders
Against the Spread: Raiders -14
2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 1-0 S/U and 0-1 ATS
2)This game scares the hell out of me
Falcons at Packers
The Falcons allowed the Bears to nearly sneak out a Week 1 win, and that has to be concerning to those who believe Atlanta is a Super Bowl contender. Because, yes, the Falcons were lucky to win this game. The Packers, meanwhile, did enough on offense to beat the Seahawks in Week 1, but the real star of the game was the Green Bay defense, which shut down quarterback Russell Wilson. If Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan heats up and can begin finding Julio Jones consistently, the Falcons have enough offensive firepower to outlast Green Bay. But just barely.
Straight up: Falcons
Against the Spread: Packers +3
2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 1-0 S/U and 1-0 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Patriots at Saints
How many people do you suppose lost their survivor pools in Week 1 because the Chiefs blasted through the Patriots last Thursday? Probably plenty. But now New England has the chance to get back on track, facing off against a Saints team that still features Drew Brees and defensive end Cameron Jordan (and little else). The Saints are fun to watch at home, and it’s always a good time watching a mad Patriots team coming off a loss (unless you’re the opponent that week). There’s also this: If the Patriots struggle or (gasp!) lose again, we might have to take a real look at what the heck is going on in New England. But the Patriots won’t.
Straight up: Patriots
Against the Spread: Patriots -7
2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS
S/U ATS
CIN over HOU CIN -6.5
BAL ove CLE BAL -9
CAR over BUF BUF +7.5
ARI over IND IND -7.5
JAC over TEN JAC +2.5
KC over PHI PHI +5.5
NE over NO NE -7 (FUN)
PIT over MIN MIN +5.5
TB over CHI TB -7
LAC over MIA MIA +4.5
OAK over NYJ OAK -14
DEN over DAL DEN +2
LAR over WAS LAR -2.5
SEA over SF SF +14
ATL over GB GB +3
DET over NYG DET +3
Overall: 9-6 S/U and 5-10 ATS
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.