The Cowboys still have a chance to save their season. They enter their Thanksgiving matchup vs. the Redskins with a 5-5 record, and though they have plenty of work to do to have a chance at the NFL’s second wild card—they’re currently one game behind the Falcons, Seahawks and Lions for that spot—they have a decent opportunity to make the postseason for the third time in four years.

But based on the way Dallas has played since running back Ezekiel Elliott was suspended for six games, you’d be forgiven if you don’t pick them to win until he returns for Week 16 on Dec. 24. After all, the Cowboys have lost two straight, scoring seven points vs. the Falcons and nine points last week vs. the Eagles. In those two Elliott-less games, they’ve received decent rushing performances from Alfred Morris, but he’s clearly not the game-changer Elliott can be.

And as it stands now, quarterback Dak Prescott, who had four turnovers vs. Philadelphia, isn’t a good enough offensive player to overcome the loss of such a good running back. As Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman wrote this week, “In games before the suspension, many defenses devoted a lot of resources to stopping Elliott first and Prescott second. Now those defenses are largely targeting Prescott. The Eagles practically ignored the Cowboys running game, and you could almost see the pressure build on Prescott. Then, like a cracking dam trying to hold back millions of gallons of water, the pressure overtook him.”

At this point, if I’m picking the last four games of Elliott’s suspension, I’d say the Cowboys will beat the Giants but lose to the Chargers, Redskins and Raiders. And that would keep them out of the playoffs.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 12 picks. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).

1)Bet your life savings on this game*

Dolphins at Patriots

Though the fact the Dolphins are getting 16.5 points vs. New England is a bit much for me, there’s no doubt in my mind the Patriots will win this game and win rather easily. New England is on a six-game winning streak, and considering this is the only home game for the team from Nov. 12 to Dec. 24, expect the Patriots to make the fans in Foxborough very happy.

Straight up: Patriots

Against the Spread: Dolphins +16.5

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 8-3 S/U and 5-6 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Saints at Rams

The Saints are the hottest team in the league, winning eight straight to take control of the NFC South. Though the Rams are coming off a disappointing loss at Minnesota last week, they’ve still proven they’re also one of the premier teams in the conference. What we haven’t seen from L.A., though, is the ability to beat a top-notch squad (unless you count Jacksonville). Getting past the Saints would certainly qualify. If this game were played in New Orleans, I’d have no problem going with the Saints. But the fact it’s in L.A., gives me pause. I’m still picking the Saints, but I’m not completely confident.

Straight up: Saints

Against the Spread: Saints +2.5

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 8-3 S/U and 8-3 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Browns at Bengals

I wrote a few weeks ago that I thought this game would be the best chance for Cleveland to score a victory this season. But now that Aaron Rodgers is out for the season, the Browns stand an excellent shot at scoring a win when they host the Packers in Week 14. Still, this is a rivalry game, and usually, a pretty fun one to watch. Both of these teams are bad—so bad, in fact, that this is the worst combined record of the squads heading into the Battle of Ohio—but maybe we’ll get some post-Thanksgiving joy from this contest as Hue Jackson tries to get his second win as the Browns head coach.

Straight up: Bengals

Against the Spread: Browns +8

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 8-3 S/U and 7-4 ATS

2017 record for every game picked in this column: 24-9 S/U and 20-13 ATS

S/U ATS

MIN over DET MIN -3

LAC over DAL LAC -1

WAS over NYG WAS -7

KC over BUF BUF +10

TEN over IND TEN -3

CIN over CLE CLE +8

ATL over TB TB +10

NE over MIA MIA +16.5

CAR over NYJ NYJ +4.5

PHI over CHI CHI +13.5

SEA over SF SF +6.5

ARI over JAC ARI +5.5

OAK over DEN OAK -5

NO over LAR NO +2.5

PIT over GB PIT -14

BAL over HOU BAL -7

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.