You never really see the Titans coming, do you? At least, I don’t.
I never figured Tennessee would win eight of its first 12 games last year to put itself in prime playoff position, and after the Titans lost their next three games, it wasn’t unreasonable to predict another defeat in Week 17 to put the exclamation point on their late-season collapse. Instead, they beat a playoff-bound Jacksonville team and then proceeded to upset the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs.
This year, I didn’t imagine we’d see the Titans return to this position, fighting back to a 5-4 record after dismantling the Patriots in Week 10. Tennessee has now won two games in a row, and spoiler alert, I’m picking the Titans to upset the Colts in Indianapolis.
Give huge credit to first-year coach Mike Vrabel and a defense that ranks No. 1 in the league in points allowed. But the real turning point in the past few games has been quarterback Marcus Mariota. In his past two appearances, he’s completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 468 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s accumulated a passer rating of at least 119.9 in both games, and the last time he accomplished that feat in his career was, um, never. Mariota has had a few really good performances in the past, but he’s rarely put them together in back-to-back games.
Now, he’ll get the chance to face the Colts pass defense which ranks 24th in the NFL in yards given up, and he’ll get another opportunity to show that he can be one of the big reasons Tennessee can make a return to the postseason.
By just about every indication, Mariota was a less-than-average quarterback last year. The past few games has shown he can be much better than that. The way his career has played out so far, that’s one of the more surprising outcomes for Tennessee this year. Now, on to the Week 11 picks.
1) Bet your life savings on this game*
Panthers at Lions
I’m pretty much done with Detroit. And hell, why wouldn’t I be? The Lions, since they traded away Golden Tate, have shown they’re pretty much done, as well. In the past three weeks, they’ve lost to three solid or better squads (Seattle, Minnesota and Chicago), but they also haven’t put up much of a fight in any of those contests. Like Detroit’s past three opponents, Carolina is solid or better.
I like the Panthers here because they’ve gotten an extra few days of rest after their Thursday night game in Week 10 and because they still have plenty to play for this season. Detroit, meanwhile, doesn’t. Go with the Panthers to win bigger than you’d expect on the road.
Straight up: Panthers Against the spread: Panthers -4
2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 8-2 S/U and 7-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 22-7 S/U and 16-13 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Bengals at Ravens
Cincinnati doesn’t seem like the team you should be picking here. The Bengals are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints, after which Cincinnati felt the need to fire its defensive coordinator. Baltimore is coming off a bye. And the Bengals just hired Hue Jackson (Hue Jackson?!?) as a special assistant to head coach Marvin Lewis. What the heck is happening with Cincinnati, and why I’m going against my gut and picking the Bengals to beat the Ravens?
The Bengals beat the Ravens in Week 2, and I think they can muster up enough offense to do the same in Week 11. The Ravens are probably going to transition away from coach John Harbaugh at the end of the season, and the team doesn’t feel stable at the moment, especially after losing four of their last five contents. But mostly, I still think the Bengals are a decent enough team that still could make the postseason, and I don’t feel the same way about Baltimore.
Straight up: Bengals Against the spread: Bengals +4.5
2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 7-3 S/U and 6-3-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 17-12 S/U and 16-11-2 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Chiefs at Rams
This game’s line was originally Chiefs +2.5, but a day later, they’re now getting 3.5 points vs. the Rams. I’m tempted to take Los Angeles straight up, but for now, I’m in the mode that until Kansas City proves me wrong, I’m just going to keep on picking the Chiefs to win. As I wrote about last week, I think that if the Saints played the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, New Orleans would win. But I think if Kansas City were to play the Rams in the championship game, I’d go with the Chiefs.
The Rams have more potential on defense than Kansas City, but I like the Chiefs on offense just a tad more than the Rams. Both teams are great. I just think the Chiefs are slightly better, and they’ll do enough to squeak by for a victory (and remember, the Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread this year; the Rams are 4-6).
Straight up: Chiefs Against the spread: Chiefs +3.5
2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 5-5 S/U and 4-5-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 18-11 S/U and 14-13-2 ATS
2018 record for every game picked in this column: 20-10 S/U and 17-11-2 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 57-30 S/U and 46-37-4 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 92-54 S/U and 68-74 ATS
- S/U ATS
- SEA over GB SEA -2.5
- ATL over DAL ATL -3
- CAR over DET CAR -4
- TEN over IND TEN +2
- TB over NYG TB +1.5
- WAS over HOU WAS +2.5
- PIT over JAC PIT -5.5
- CIN over BAL CIN +4.5
- ARI over OAK OAK +4
- LAC over DEN DEN +7
- NO over PHI PHI +8
- MIN over CHI MIN +3
- KC over LAR KC +3.5
- Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.
