The Buffalo Bills have managed to confuse most everybody who follows or plays in the NFL. Even though the Bills are 5-4 and are currently lined up for the AFC’s final Wild Card spot—and remember, this franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 1999—the team has benched starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor and replaced him with rookie Nathan Peterman.

Why?

“We are 5-4, I understand that,” coach Sean McDermott said, via NFL.com. “We're in the playoff hunt at this point. It is always and will forever, for the time that I'm here, it's about putting out the best team that we possibly can. We are made for more than 5-4. This is about becoming better as a football team and see if this will make us a better team. As the decision-maker you have to be willing to take calculated risks to get to where we're trying to go. And I'm comfortable doing that.”

This comes, even though Taylor has completed a solid 64.2 percent for his passes for 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions with a quarterback rating of 91.4 on the season. Hey, he’s not the best quarterback in the league, but he’s done fine this season. Taylor said he was shocked with the demotion, and it appeared most of the league agreed with him.

And now there’s not much reason to bet on Buffalo to win this week. Because the Bills travel across the country to Los Angeles, where they’ll send out a rookie quarterback making his first start in front of a hostile crowd against a Chargers defense that ranks ninth in the league in points allowed. So, yeah, I’ll take L.A. and the 4.5 points the Chargers are giving.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 11 picks and the Upset Watch from Shaun Lowrie. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).

1)Bet your life savings on this game*

Chiefs at Giants

The rule is simple: You never bet against Chiefs coach Andy Reid when his team is coming off a bye week. In his coaching career, Reid’s squads are 16-2 when they have two weeks to prepare for an opponent. And fortunately for Kansas City, it’s playing perhaps the worst team in the league at the moment. As I predicted last week, San Francisco scored its first victory of the year by beating the Giants. Reid certainly wouldn’t need two weeks of preparation to beat New York. But the fact he does only spells disaster for the Giants.

Straight up: Chiefs

Against the Spread: Chiefs -10.5

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 8-2 S/U and 5-5 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Dolphins at Buccaneers

Most of the time, the Dolphins are a bad team, but sometimes, they’re just fluky good enough to unexpectedly upset a superior team. The exact same thing could be said for Tampa Bay. So, I don’t really have any idea who to pick to win this game. This game should already be erased from our minds, but since Hurricane Irma wiped out this contest for Week 1, the teams will face off Sunday. And what a cluster it should be. I’m going with Tampa Bay, because the Buccaneers are at home, because Miami has lost three straight and because Tampa Bay is coming off a decent victory vs. the Jets.

Straight up: Buccaneers

Against the Spread: Buccaneers pick ‘em

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 7-3 S/U and 7-3 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Rams at Vikings

Two of the most surprisingly good teams this season will face off in what should be a fun contest. You’ve got one of the league’s best defenses with Minnesota going against a second-year quarterback in Jared Goff who’s thrown 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions this year and a running back in Todd Gurley who’s a major threat on the ground and through the air. This isn’t an easy game to pick, but it should be a blast to watch.

Straight up: Vikings

Against the Spread: Vikings -2.5

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 7-3 S/U and 6-4 ATS

2017 record for every game picked in this column: 22-8 S/U and 18-12 ATS

S/U ATS

PIT over TEN TEN +7

JAC over CLE JAC -7.5

BAL over GB BAL -2

HOU over ARI HOU -1

MIN over LAR MIN -2.5

DET over CHI DET -3

NO over WAS WAS +7.5

KC over NYG KC -10.5

TB over MIA TB Pick ‘em

LAC over BUF LAC -4.5

DEN over CIN DEN -2.5

NE over OAK NE -6.5

PHI over DAL PHI -3.5

SEA over ATL SEA -3

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.