If the Chiefs were to play the Saints in the Super Bowl, who would you put your money on to win?
At this point, in my eyes, Kansas City appears to be the best team in the AFC, followed somewhat closely by the Patriots and the Chargers (and maybe the Steelers). And New Orleans is tops in the NF. As evidenced by Week 9, the Saints are slightly better than the Rams and a good deal better than the Panthers.
So, for argument’s sake, let’s say Kansas City and New Orleans make it to the final game of the season. If I were an oddsmakers, as the season stands right now, I’d make the Chiefs about a -3 favorite. What would happen then?
Here are the pros for Kansas City: An outstanding quarterback in Patrick Mahomes who very well could win the MVP, a running game that makes the offense more than one-dimensional, and a coaching staff, led by Andy Reid, who has done a fantastic job this season (only once this year has Kansas City not scored at least 30 points).
Here are the cons: At some point, you have to wonder if Mahomes, in his second year, will finally start to feel the pressure and play like the 23-year-old he is, a defense that has a difficult time stopping the opposing offense (though it’s played better in the past few games), and a head coach who has never proven he can win an NFL title.
As for New Orleans, here are the pros: Drew Brees is having one of the best seasons of his career (amazing for a near 40-year-old), he’s got one of the best receivers in the game in Michael Thomas and now Dez Bryant as well, and the team knows what it takes to win a Super Bowl.
The cons: The defense still isn’t very good, especially against the pass (meaning Mahomes could torch them over and over again), and New Orleans would likely have to beat the Rams (who very well could still be the best team in the entire league) for the second time in a season.
If the line says Chiefs -3 for the final game of the season with, let’s say, an over-under of 60, I’d say go the Saints and take the over. Of course, there’s still a long way to go before we see if that scenario is possible. Now, on to the Week 10 picks.
1)Bet your life savings on this game*
Falcons at Browns
The Browns are getting 4 points here—at least at the time I’m writing this—and I really can’t figure out why. Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield continues to play inconsistently, and the Falcons defense is coming off their best performance since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Falcons on offense continue to score hordes of points, and quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 300 yards in five of the past six games. I would have expected Atlanta to be giving a touchdown in this game, even if it is on the road. Instead of picking the Chiefs over the Cardinals (in reality, the easiest game of the week to pick), I’m going with Atlanta to dominate the Browns in Cleveland.
Straight up: Falcons Against the spread: Falcons -4
2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 8-1 S/U and 7-2 ATS 2017-18 record: 22-6 S/U and 16-12 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Jaguars at Colts
Both teams are coming off the bye, so they should be well rested and ready for action. But last they left off, Jacksonville was on a four-game losing streak and its offense had ground to a halt, while Indianapolis had won two in a row against the two worst teams in the league (the Bills and Raiders) after its own four-game losing streak. Both are 3-5, and a victory keeps the winner within striking defense of the Texans—who certainly could fall apart down the stretch despite their six-game winning streak. There’s not much reason to pick Jacksonville here, particularly since Andrew Luck has played well and particularly since the Jaguars defense has not for the past month. But for some reason, I have a feeling that Jacksonville will pull the upset here. And since I had that same feeling last week that the Lions would beat the Vikings, this prediction frightens me.
Straight up: Jaguars
Against the spread: Jaguars +3
2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 7-2 S/U and 6-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 17-11 S/U and 16-11-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Eagles at Cowboys
Let’s preface it with this: I’m not saying this game will be fun, because neither of these teams are all that enjoyable to watch. The Cowboys have been pretty darn bad for most of the season, and Philadelphia is pretty darn mediocre. The reason I’d want to watch this game is to see if Dallas coach Jason Garrett—who most experts believe is on the hot seat and who many believe should have been fired ages ago—can save his coaching career. The Cowboys showed Monday that newly traded receiver Amari Cooper could have a major impact on the offense and could help give running back Ezekiel Elliott a hand in lifting the entire Dallas team. If Cooper can help Dallas reel off some victories in the back half of the season, perhaps it gets the Cowboys back in the playoff hunt and maybe saves Garrett’s job. But here’s the real gut-punch. Owner Jerry Jones said he wants to give quarterback Dak Prescott a contract extension regardless. Meaning whomever is coaching Dallas in the future is screwed anyway. That said, Philadelphia wins this one.
Straight up: Eagles Against the spread: Eagles -6.5
2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 5-4 S/U and 4-4-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 18-10 S/U and 14-12-2 ATS
2018 record for every game picked in this column: 20-7 S/U and 17-9-1 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 57-27 S/U and 46-35-3 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 85-47 S/U and 63-66 ATS
S/U ATS
- PIT over CAR PIT -4
- CHI over DET DET +6.5
- NO over CIN CIN +4.5
- ATL over CLE ATL -4
- GB over MIA MIA +9
- NE over TEN NE -6.5
- JAC over IND JAC +3
- KC over ARI ARI +16.5
- NYJ over BUF BUF +7.5
- TB over WAS TB -3
- LAC over OAK LAC -9.5
- LAR over SEA SEA +10
- PHI over DAL PHI -6.5
- SF over NYG SF -3
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.