But first, a quick story. When I covered the Bengals regularly, I had a conversation with a then-current and now-former Browns beat writer who was in town for the day. This was about a decade ago, and the one thing I remember about that conversation was his incredulity that, no matter what, Cleveland’s ownership would blow up their coaching staff every two or three years and start over completely.
It didn’t matter who the owner was—Randy Lerner or Jimmy Haslam—and it didn’t matter who the players were. The Browns were always going to be bad and in desperate need of a new coach and a new plan. Then, they’d get their new coach, nothing would improve, and they’d start all over again in a couple of years.
Since the day of that conversation circa 2008, the Browns have gone through Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini (two seasons), Pat Shurmer (two seasons), Rob Chudzinski (one season!), Mike Pettine (two seasons) and Jackson (two seasons and a half). It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so very sad.
How can a franchise win if it’s constantly changing over everything? It can’t, and it won’t until either the Browns hire the perfect match or they keep an incompetent coach long enough for him to get lucky and start winning.
So, can the Browns begin doing that in the last half of this season? They have the first-round quarterback pick in Baker Mayfield. They have one of the best defensive players in the league in Myles Garrett. They have a potential star in running back Nick Chubb. But they’re still the Browns, and they’ll still be the underdog in every game they play the rest of the year.
It’s entirely possible the Browns could win a few more games. But it’s also entirely possible that they finish the season 2-13-1, and they’ll have to start over yet again in the offseason.
Now, on to the Week 9 picks.
1)Bet your life savings on this game *
Bears at Bill
I’m going to be honest. Picking against the Bills in this column feels a little like cheating, and if there were another viable option for a game in which I could bet my life savings, I would choose it. But it’s impossible not to be confident in a Chicago victory this week. Buffalo is coming off a Monday night game, so it’ll have even less time to prepare than normal. The Bills played New England fairly close into the third quarter, so it’s no sure bet they’ll get blown out vs. the Bears, who are coming off their own solid victory. But it looks like Nathan Peterman will start for Buffalo, which means it’s an automatic pick for the other team.
Straight up: Bears Against the spread: Bears -8.5
2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 7-1 S/U and 6-2 ATS 2017-18 record: 21-6 S/U and 15-12 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Falcons at Redskins
Why do I still believe Atlanta can win this game? It’s not like the Falcons have shown that they can ride Matt Ryan’s arm to victory against quality teams, especially with a beaten-up defense that hasn’t played well. Thing is I don’t know if Washington is a quality team. The Redskins will probably win a weak NFC East, but if the Falcons offense is rolling, I don’t think Washington can keep up on Sunday. I’m not completely confident in Atlanta, but after a bye week, I think the Falcons will get the job done.
Straight up: Falcons Against the spread: Falcons +3
2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 6-2 S/U and 5-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 16-11 S/U and 15-11-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Rams at Saints
The Rams are about to lose their first game of the season, and considering it’ll come against New Orleans, that’s some bad luck. That’s because the Saints will have the same number of losses as Los Angeles and will own the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. I write all that, but this game makes me nervous. The Saints have been playing fabulous football lately, beating the Ravens and the Vikings on the road in the past two weeks. The Rams have played great all year, but they’re in the middle of a horrendously tough stretch of games. This game will be close and will probably come down to the final few minutes. But I like New Orleans to squeak out a victory.
Straight up: Saints Against the spread: Saints -1.5
2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 4-4 S/U and 3-4-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 17-10 S/U and 13-12-2 ATS 2018 record for every game picked in this column: 17-7 S/U and 14-9-1 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 54-27 S/U and 43-35-3 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 76-43 S/U and 56-60 ATS
- S/U ATS
- SF over OAK SF -3
- CHI over BUF CHI -8.5
- KC over CLE KC -8.5
- MIA over NYJ MIA -3
- DET over MIN DET +7
- ATL over WAS ATL +3
- CAR over TB TB +7
- BAL over PIT BAL -3
- DEN over HOU DEN -2.5
- SEA over LAC SEA -1.5
- NO over LAR NO -1.5
- NE over GB GB +6.5
- TEN over DAL TEN +6.5
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.