The Jaguars performance last week against the Cowboys was abhorrent.

And rather unexpected. I recommended that you bet your life savings on a Jacksonville victory, and then, the Jaguars went out and allowed a Dax Prescott-led offense to score 40 points. It’s a Cowboys offense, by the way, that’s as one dimensional as they come in the NFL. Really, it’s an offense of one man (Ezekiel Elliott), and yet, Jacksonville allowed Prescott, Elliott and Cole Beasley to do pretty much whatever they wanted.

Making matters worse, this is the second-straight week the Jaguars defense has stunk. The week before, Jacksonville allowed 424 yards, 26 first downs and 30 points to the Chiefs. Now, the Jaguars have lost three of their last four. Yeah, they’re still tied for first place in the AFC South, but the division is so weak that Jacksonville should have already clinched the title by now (yes, I know mathematically that’s impossible, but you know what I mean). Here’s the issue with Jacksonville, which appears to be far removed from the 10-6 team of last season.

The Jaguars defense has to be perfect, because if Jacksonville’s defenders let up a couple of early touchdowns, quarterback Blake Bortles hasn’t shown the ability to be the kind of leader that can rally a team to a comeback victory. Yes, he does have six fourth-quarter comebacks in his career and seven game-winning drives (including a league-leading four in 2015), but he only has two of each in the past three seasons. He’s also thrown an NFL-high eight interceptions this year.

And that’s going to be the problem for the team all season. If Jacksonville’s defense is playing ferociously, then it’ll probably win. If the Jaguars fall behind 14-0 in the first quarter, it feels like it’s going to be impossible for them not to lose. That doesn’t bode well for Jacksonville when it gets into January. If it gets into January. Now, on to the Week 7 picks.

1)Bet your life savings on this game *

Rams at 49ers

C.J. Beathard was a revelation last Monday vs. the Packers. The 49ers quarterback went into Lambeau Field and nearly beat Green Bay on the road, completing 70 percent of his passes for 245 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also made the tough throws, the throws he needed to make in the clutch. And he showed signs that, without Jimmy Garoppolo around, Beathard can be a player that keeps San Francisco in contention for most of its games.

Of course, that’s not going to happen this week vs. the Rams, who don’t have a great pass defense but who more than make up for it on offense. I’d consider picking the 49ers to cover—others have had that idea since the spread has gone from 10.5 to 10 in the past day—but the fact they have one day less to prepare because of Monday Night Football means I think there’s a good chance of an L.A. blowout here.

Straight up: Rams Against the spread: Rams -10

2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 5-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS 2017-18 record: 19-6 S/U and 13-12 ATS

2) This game scares the hell out of me

Vikings at Jets

Two weeks ago, I was ready to write off the hapless Jets, who were on a three-game losing streak against the Dolphins (who are now just as hapless), the Browns (hapless), and the Jaguars (as I noted above, they’re also hapless). But New York has rebounded in the past two games, averaging 38 points per game as Sam Darnold has begun playing like a first-round pick and Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell have become a nice running back duo. But remember, the Jets won against the Broncos and the Colts (two more hapless teams!), and unfortunately for New York, the Vikings are not hapless—unless they’re playing the Bills.

Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been quite as good as expected this year—which kind of frightens me in this matchup—but it’s top-10 against the run, and if the Vikings can make the Jets one-dimensional, they’ll win.

Straight up: Vikings Against the spread: Vikings -3

2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 4-2 S/U and 3-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 14-11 S/U and 13-11-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Saints at Ravens

There’s only team in his 18-year career that Drew Brees has never beaten. And it’s not the Saints (he went 1-0 vs. New Orleans when he was with the Chargers). Actually, it’s Baltimore, and in four attempts vs. the Ravens, his teams have lost by an average of 11.5 points and he’s thrown a total of nine touchdowns and eight interceptions.

On Sunday, that streak will end. The Saints have too much firepower on offense, and though Baltimore has the No. 1 defense in the league, Brees and New Orleans have had two weeks to prepare. It’ll be a close one, but New Orleans will prevail and prove that it’s one of the two best teams in the NFC. And Brees will finally get his victory vs. Baltimore.

Straight up: Saints Against the spread: Saints +2.5

2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 3-3 S/U and 2-3-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 16-9 S/U and 12-11-2 ATS 2018 record for every game picked in this column: 12-6 S/U and 9-8-1 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 49-26 S/U and 38-34-3 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 54-37 S/U and 42-47 ATS

__S/U __	ATS
DEN over ARI	DEN -1.5
LAC over TEN	LAC -7
NE over CHI	NE -3
IND over BUF	IND -7.5
KC over CIN	KC -6
DET over MIA	DET +1
MIN over NYJ	MIN -3
PHI over CAR	CAR +4.5
TB over CLE	TB -3
JAC over HOU	HOU +4.5
NO over BAL	NO +2.5
WAS over DAL	WAS -1.5
LAR over SF	LAR -10
ATL over NYG	ATL -5.5

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.