There are no gimmes in the NFL.
Sometimes, we get lulled into thinking that way. But deep down I know that the old stereotype is actually true: Any NFL team can get beat other NFL team on any given Sunday. I thought about that every time I picked the Browns to win a game last year, and even though I was proven to be wrong every single damn time I selected Cleveland in 2017, you always have to keep it in mind.
Even when you think—no, you’re absolutely positive—the Bills are going to get blown out or when you’re sure the Patriots are going to dominate every opponent they play, this NFL season has given us many reasons to remember the old axiom that even the worst teams usually pick up a couple of victories here and there during a season.
And since this NFL season has felt so strange, let me say this: With the exception of the Chiefs, every team you think is good can actually be really bad, and a potential Super Bowl contender—I’m looking at you really hard, Atlanta Falcons—can turn out to be quite terrible. On the flip side, even the worst teams (ahem, Buffalo and Dallas) can play good enough football to triumph every once in a while.
So, as always, be careful when you’re picking those games with massive point spreads. Because this season the Bills can beat the Vikings and the Saints can get roasted by the Buccaneers and the Lions can dominate the Patriots one week and can get beaten by the Jets and 49ers in the two weeks prior. If it all feels random, well, you’re not alone.
There are no gimmes, and there are no guarantees. And that is what makes laying your money on these games so horrendous and yet so very exhilarating.
Now, on to the Week 6 picks.
1)Bet your life savings on this game *
Jaguars at Cowboys
Normally, for these “life savings” game, the point spreads are bigger, and I feel pretty confident about my choice (you can see why when you look at my record for these contests). But this week, I’m picking a squad that got blasted last week on the road, will be without its top offensive player yet again, and will have to go back on the road and face an opponent in desperate need of a victory. But that’s how confident I am in the Jaguars vs. the Cowboys. Yes, the Chiefs surprisingly dominated Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars defense will feast on Dallas’ one-dimensional offense. Maybe Jacksonville won’t completely shut down Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, who leads the league in rushing, but the Jaguars won’t let him beat them all by himself. Meanwhile, Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles will be just good enough on offense to lead his team to the road victory.
Straight Up: Jaguars
Against the spread: Jaguars -3
2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 5-0 S/U and 4-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 19-5 S/U and 13-11 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Buccaneers at Falcons
I feel like I’ve picked Atlanta to win all five games this year, and the Falcons have let me down in all but one. I believe in this offense, and I believe in Matt Ryan. Every week, my podcast buddy John Halpin brings up how much the Falcons defense was hurt by the loss of linebacker Deion James and safety Keanu Neal to injury, and every week, I’m like, “Nah, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are good enough to overcome all of that.” But you know what? They’re not. And now the defense, which has allowed a ridiculous 40.3 points per game in the last three contests, has to stop Jameis Winston and a Buccaneers offense that has had two weeks to prepare for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s replacement. But I’m still picking Atlanta, and that terrifies me. Apparently, I never learn.
Straight up: Falcons Against the spread: Falcons -3
2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 3-2 S/U and 2-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 13-11 S/U and 12-11-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Chiefs at Patriots
At some point, the Chiefs will lose a game. And it’s going to be this week at New England. But this will still be a fun game. Even when Patrick Maholmes isn’t playing great—and there have been times in the past two weeks when he hasn’t been as invincible as he’s shown himself to be early in his first full season as a starter—he’s still leading Kansas City to victory. Though the Chiefs are in the middle of a brutal five-game stretch (vs. the Patriots, the Bengals, the Jaguars, and two games vs. the Broncos), they’re the only undefeated team left in the NFL. New England, though, will end that streak and shred a Chiefs defense that is still one of the worst in the league. This game could be a shootout—you’d be forgiven if you take the over of 60—between the game’s best young quarterback and the one of the best signal-callers of all time, and it’ll be a blast to watch.
Straight up: Patriots Against the spread: Patriots -3.5
2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 2-3 S/U and 2-2-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 15-9 S/U and 12-10-2 ATS 2018 record for every game picked in this column: 10-5 S/U and 8-6-1 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 47-25 S/U and 37-32-3 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 46-30 S/U and 37-37 ATS
- S/U ATS
- PHI over NYG PHI -3
- ATL over TB TB +3.5
- CIN over PIT CIN -2.5
- CLE over LAC CLE +1
- OAK over SEA OAK +3
- CHI over MIA CHI -3
- MIN over ARI MIN -10.5
- IND over NYJ IND +2.5
- CAR over WAS CAR +1
- HOU over BUF BUF +8.5
- LAR over DEN DEN +7
- JAC over DAL JAC -3
- BAL over TEN TEN +3
- KC over NE KC +3.5
- GB over SF GB -9.5 *Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.