He was stunningly mediocre. He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,904 yards, eight touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 70.0 quarterback rating. Truly, his stats were similar to what Palmer had produced in the first quarter of the season, but here’s what I remember from Fitzpatrick’s reign as the Bengals starter. Before every game began, you felt there was basically no hope Cincinnati would ever be any good with Fitzpatrick running the team (that was confirmed when the team went 1-6-1 in his first eight starts). He was the backup for a reason, and I figured that’s all he’d ever be.
Clearly, he was a smart man (have you heard that he attended Harvard?!?) and he was fine to deal with from a media perspective. But if you had told me 10 years ago that Fitzpatrick would be such a positive story—hell, if you’d told me he still be in the league —I would never have believed you.
But here we are. Fitzpatrick, who had to take over for the suspended Jameis Winston in Tampa Bay, has been one of the league’s biggest surprise stories—and has been anointed with the fantastic FitzMagic nickname—completing 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight touchdowns, one interception and a quarterback rating of 151.5. This week, the Buccaneers will play host to the Steelers, and though we know FitzMagic will eventually run out, I’m content to ride him for as long as possible, especially with a Pittsburgh defense ranked 28th in the NFL.
A little voice in my head pokes me in the ribs, telling me to remember Fitzpatrick in a Bengals uniform in 2008. But that was a decade ago, and improbably, the 35-year-old Fitzpatrick is performing at a higher level than any of us could ever have imagined.
Here are my Week 3 picks.
1) Bet your life savings on this game
49ers at Chiefs
It would be easy picking the Bills to lose to the “life savings” game every week, but where’s the fun in that? Instead, let’s turn our attention to Kansas City and new quarterback Patrick Mahomes—the younger, hairless version of this season’s Ryan Fitzpatrick—and an offense ranked No. 1 in the NFL in points scored and No. 6 in yards gained. It’s not just that Mahomes has thrown 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions. It’s also the fact he has so many weapons around him, including Tyreek Hill (12 catches, 259 yards, three touchdowns), Travis Kelce (eight catches, 115 yards, two TDS) and Kareem Hunt (last year’s NFL-leading rusher). Even if Mahomes is having an off-day, chances are somebody else in that offense is going to be playing well. And if Mahomes and everybody else is performing at a high level, the 49ers defense is going to have a tough stopping them. And the San Francisco offense won’t keep up.
Straight up: Chiefs Against the Spread: Chiefs -6
2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS 2017-18 record: 16-5 S/U and 11-10 ATS
2) This game scares the hell out of me
Saints at Falcons
Remember how Atlanta offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian was destroyed after Week 1 because the Falcons offense was so damn terrible in the red zone (they scored one touchdown on six opportunities)? Then, last week in Atlanta’s win vs. the Panthers, Sarkisian suddenly started dialing up the right plays inside the 20, and the Falcons scored touchdowns on all four trips to the red zone. “We were pissed as a team that we didn’t perform like we thought we could [in Week 1],” coach Dan Quinn said, via 247sports (https://247sports.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/ContentGallery/Dan-Quinn-on-Atlanta-Falcons-red-zone-offense-121998678/#121998678_2). “We knew the work that we’re doing is right, and we knew the process we were going through was right, so we were going to stay committed to that. By no means have we solved any of the issues that come up.” And that’s the scary part. Who knows if Atlanta’s red zone issues have been fixed for good or have just been temporarily mended. Fortunately for Atlanta, the Saints have one of the worst defenses in the league, and considering Atlanta is at home in a rivalry game, I’m going with them to win and to cover.
Straight up: Falcons Against the spread: Falcons -3
2017 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 2-0 S/U and 1-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 12-9 S/U and 11-9-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Jets at Browns
Could this be the week? Could we see NFL history, something that hasn’t happened since Week 16 of the 2016? Could we see the Browns actually win? The oddsmakers are thinking so (the Browns are home favorite for the first time since 2015 (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2796193-browns-vs-jets-odds-cleveland-home-favorite-for-1st-time-since-2015)), and so am I—though to be fair, this isn’t the first time I’ve predicted a Cleveland win in this column. Here’s why I like the Browns this week. 1) They very well could be 2-0 on the season instead of 0-1-1. 2) Tyrod Taylor and Carlos Hyde make a solid offensive duo for the Browns. 3) The Jets are starting a rookie quarterback on the road. 4) Browns kicker Zane Gonzales (the biggest goat from last week) is gone. 5) This winless streak has to end sometime. I mean, it has to, right? I talked last week about how I was on board with picking rookie quarterbacks to play well, but after last week, I realized that the statement was a lie. I don’t believe that at all. And I think the Browns will take advantage of Jets quarterback Sam Darnold to score a rare victory.
Straight up: Browns Against the spread: Browns -3
2017 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 0-2 S/U and 1-1 ATS 2017-2018 record: 13-8 S/U and 11-9-1 ATS
2018 record for every game picked in this column: 4-2 S/U and 4-2 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 18-12 S/U and 16-15 ATS
S/U ATS
- CLE over NYJ CLE -3
- ATL over NO ATL -3
- BAL over DEN DEN +5
- CAR over CIN CIN +3
- HOU over NYG HOU -6
- JAC over TEN TEN +6.5
- KC over SF KC -6
- MIA over OAK MIA -3
- MIN over BUF MIN -16.5
- PHI over IND IND +6.5
- GB over WAS GB -3
- LAR over LAC LAC +7
- CHI over ARI ARI +6
- SEA over DAL SEA -1
- NE over DET DET +6.5
- TB over PIT TB +1.5
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.
1.