First, they beat the Titans in a marathon rain game in Week 1, then they shut down the Jets and rookie quarterback Sam Darnold after he had a fabulous debut the week before, and then Ryan Tannehill (yes, that Ryan Tannehill!) had one of the best games of his career in beating the Raiders last Sunday. Strange things are afoot in Miami.

Now its 3-0 start, combined with the Patriots going 1-2 in the first three weeks, have people wondering: Can Miami actually win the AFC East?

OK, hardly anybody is seriously wondering that at least, not yet. But Miami, even though I’m still not convinced it’s an above-average squad, is strangely surging, and if the Dolphins can beat the Patriots on the road this weekend, that would give credence to the theory that Miami might be for real, especially since it’d then have a three-game lead on New England in the division.

Again, it’s so bizarre, right? Mainly, because the Dolphins haven’t won an AFC East title since 2008 and because they haven’t started a season with a 4-0 record since 1995 when Don Shula was coaching his final season. And really, who thought they’d be any good this year anyway?

So much of the season will depend on whether Tannehill—who was coming off knee injuries that kept him out all last season—can keep up this effort. The quarterback who seemingly was always on the cusp of being labeled a first-round bust is beginning to play like the No. 8 overall pick he was in 2012 (and hey, he’s a massive improvement over Jay Cutler from 2017). No matter what you think of the quarterback wins/losses stats, the team has won 10 of the last 11 games Tannehill has started, and he’s playing as well as ever. If we’re picking this game based on Tannehill vs. Tom Brady in Foxborough, I’ll forgive you if pick the Patriots all day long. But for now, the Dolphins can’t be ignored—which, based on their history since Shula, feels just a little bit peculiar.

Now, on to the Week 4 picks.

*1)Bet your life savings on this game **

49ers at Chargers

Yes, I picked against the 49ers in the “life savings” game last week, and you’re darn right, I was correct straight up and against the spread. And that was before Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Now, the 49ers will have to start C.J. Beathard, a third-round pick from 2017 who started five games last year (and, um, was not good, completing 54.9 percent of his passes for four touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 69.2 quarterback rating). What makes Beathard different from young starting quarterbacks who have been inconsistent (Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, for instance) is that Beathard has a decent amount of experience from last season. That could help him on Sunday vs. the Chargers. But he’d need to rely on the San Francisco defense to help him keep L.A. within striking defense. So far, the 49ers haven’t held a team to less than 24 points. The Chargers aren’t a great team, but they have a top-10 offense. That will be enough to blast through San Francisco with relative ease. Straight up: Chargers Against the Spread: Chargers -9.5 2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 3-0 S/U and 3-0 ATS 2017-18 record: 17-5 S/U and 12-10 ATS 2) This game scares the hell out of me Ravens at Steelers Pittsburgh finally got itself a victory last week, but here’s why I don’t like the Steelers in this game. They played the Monday night game and have a day’s less rest than Baltimore—that could be a big deal in the typical grind-it-out AFC North—and their defense still really scares me. Last week, Pittsburgh allowed 455 total yards to Tampa Bay. The week before, it gave up 449 yards to the Chiefs. And the week before that, it watched as Cleveland scored two touchdowns in the final 7:32 of regulation that led to an eventual tie. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has been solid this year—which, when compared to the Joe Flacco of the past few years, means he’s been absolutely awesome. If the Ravens, who are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, can get their rushing game in gear against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the run, we’ll see Baltimore snap its three-game losing streak to Pittsburgh.

Straight up: Ravens

Against the spread: Ravens +3

2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 2-1 S/U and 1-2 ATS 2017-18 record: 12-10 S/U and 11-10-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Vikings at Rams

For so much of its history, the Thursday night games have featured boring contests filled with tired, uninterested teams. But last week, we saw the Browns score their first win since the end of 2016 by beating the Jets—it was my fun game of Week 3, and yes, it was rather entertaining to watch—and this week, we get one of the premier matchups of the NFL’s early season. If this was a Sunday game, I’d put more weight in possibly taking the Vikings to pull off the upset. But after getting smacked around by the Bills, the worst team in the league, last week and now considering Minnesota has to travel across the country for a game on three days rest, it seems highly likely the Vikings will fall to a 1-2-1 losing record. The Rams, meanwhile, have been outstanding on offense and defense, and according to Bovada, they’re now the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Though L.A. is 3-0 against the spread this year, I have a feeling the Vikings will stay within a touchdown while still falling in defeat.

Straight up: Rams

Against the spread: Vikings +7

2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 1-2 S/U and 2-1 ATS 2018 record for every game picked in this column: 6-3 S/U and 6-3 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 15-9 S/U and 13-10-1 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 27-19 S/U and 24-23 ATS

- S/U ATS

LAR over MIN MIN +7
ATL over CIN ATL -5.5
CHI over TB CHI -2
DET over DAL DET +3.5
GB over BUF GB -10.5
PHI over TEN TEN +3
IND over HOU IND -1.5
NE over MIA MIA +7.5
JAC over NYJ NYJ +9
OAK over CLE OAK -2
ARI over SEA ARI -3
NO over NYG NO -3
LAC over SF LAC -9.5
BAL over PIT BAL +3
KC over DEN DEN +5 *Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.