Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off tonight as the Indianapolis Colts will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on 'Thursday Night Football.' The game will start at 8:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Colts fell to 1-2-1 on the season with a 24-17 loss to their AFC South rival Tennessee Titans last week. Denver is also coming off a loss, and it was also to a division rival as the Las Vegas Raiders took down the Broncos 32-23.
Coming into this matchup, both teams are 1-3 ATS, and over the last 12 matchups in the 'Peyton Manning Bowl' the Colts have beaten the Broncos in nine of the last 12, and they have covered at the same clip.
I am on record saying that bad NFL offensive matchups are unwatchable, but this really is the only sporting event (that isn't preseason basketball) on tonight, and I am actually enjoying just how awful both of these offenses have been with new quarterbacks at the reigns.
With only one game, I have decided to give you the three-best props from the top sportsbook in the country, BetMGM. I will also be giving out my best bet of the night (which is 9-5 during primetime games this season, btw.) If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
Let's pick out some winners.
Jerry Jeudy Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Through the first four games of the season, Jeudy is averaging 5.3 targets per game, and although he has only caught 11 of those targets, he went over this number last week against the Raiders, and Jeudy has a 12.3 average depth of target, meaning any time the ball is thrown his way, there is a decent chance that he is going to rack up the yardage.
Last year, when Jeudy received at least five targets in a game, he averaged 57.2 yards per game, with an average yard per reception of 12.5. Even though the Broncos' offense is struggling with Russell Wilson taking the snaps, Jeudy has still been a solid contributor for this team, going over this number twice on the season.
Jeudy spends the majority of the snaps lined up in the slot, which is a spot the Colts have struggled to defend this year, and with Javonte Williams going down for the season, the running game is light, and I would expect Denver to let Russ cook a little a bit in this one. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 6.7 yards per pass and teams are completing 68.5% of their passes against this Colts' defense.
Matt Ryan To Have 2+ Interceptions (+325)
In his first four games in Indianapolis, Ryan has been wildly disappointing. Entering tonight, he has five touchdowns to five interceptions, is averaging only 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt, and Ryan is ranked 23rd in success rate.
To be fair, Ryan has not been too awful this season, but something clearly is not clicking with this Colts' offense, and with Jonathan Taylor now ruled out for tonight, the Colts are going to look to air it out in this Denver air. On the season, Ryan is averaging 38.5 passing attempts, and that was with Taylor in the game.
Denver's secondary is ranked fifth in yards per pass as well as passing yards allowed per game. They also only allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 62% of their passes, and with a Sack% of 7.86%, the front seven is causing chaos in the pocket, forcing bad throws and mistakes from opposing quarterbacks.
This is strictly a value play, and given Ryan's struggles on the season, it is worth a play.
Any Time Touchdown Scorer Of The Night: Mo Alie-Cox (+333)
Even when Taylor was healthy, the Colts have been a pass-heavy offense, especially in the red zone. With 63% of red zone snaps being a pass, we can probably expect that same production, possibly more given that their star running back is out.
While I do think Nyheim Hines is a hell of a second option in your backfield if they were not running the ball with Taylor inside their 10-yard line, then why would that change now? Despite the "meh" performance from this offense to start the year, you can still see the potential this unit has under Ryan.
In the red zone, the Colts have turned to their tight ends, and so far, it is working fairly well. They have thrown the ball to their tight ends six times in the red zone with four of them going for touchdowns. In other words, 80% of Ryan's touchdowns on the season have come to tight ends in the red zone. I love the value we are getting here, and Cox is averaging a touchdown reception every 10 targets.
Best Bet Of The Night: Under 42.5 (-110)
Here I am once again betting a primetime under.
The total has gone under in 10 of the 14 primetime games in the NFL this season, and tonight should be no different. On one side, you have a Colts offense that does like to air the hell out of the ball, but they are only putting up 14.3 points per game, which is the least in the NFL, and despite throwing the ball 38.5 times per game, they are dead-last in points per play, and the Colts are only picking up 5.0 yards per play.
On the other side, you have a Broncos offense that should absolutely be a lot better than they are. Against the 49ers two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, Denver punted the ball 10 times and went three and out eight times in one game.
They found a way to win 11-10, which is the perfect score for that disgusting of a game.
Simply put, neither of these teams is moving the ball, the Colts have the worst scoring offense in the NFL while the Broncos are ranked 30th in scoring, and both defenses have been sharp. The total has gone under in nine straight for the Colts, and 11 of the last 15 for the Broncos. I would jump on this number as fast as you can before it dips below that coveted common final score of 42.
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