Week 1 of the college football season continues tonight with a Big Ten matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Indiana Hoosiers.

I am excited about this game for two reasons. First, I have a weird infatuation with Illinois football and basketball. Secondly, I love watching mid-Big Ten matchups. Sometimes you get a real snooze fest, but even those are exciting in a comical way, but every other time, they are enjoyable football games to watch.

Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for this game. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sep. 2, 8:00 PM	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Illinois	+1.5 (-114)	-102	O 45.5 (-112)
Indiana	-1.5 (-106)	-118	U 45.5 (-108)

It's A Pro-Style Offense That Runs Up-Tempo, "They Call It Tempro."

Listen here, when I tell you that Illinois' Week 0 victory told us nothing, I mean it. The Illini took down Wyoming 38-6, which is good, but I am serious when I say that Wyoming might not win a game and would probably struggle to win at the DII level.

After scoring 41 seconds into the game, it almost seemed Illinois knew the deal. They did just enough to keep the blowout intact, but they did not give it their all. The offensive line outweighed Wyoming's defensive line by at least 50+ pounds across the board, the Cowboy's quarterback averaged 1.5 yards per pass, and they had no answers for Illinois' rushing attack led by Chase Brown.

Brown finished with 161 yards, two touchdowns on the ground, and one receiving touchdown. Last season, Illinois lived off the run, ranking 55th in rushing offense and picking up 4.5 yards per carry. This season, they finally have a quarterback you can hang your hat on in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito, who played well in his first game with the Illini, completing 27 of 37 passes with two touchdowns.

This week, DeVito will have to be more than just a game manager as they are going up against a defense, while not good, is much more talented than the one they faced last week. During his time at Syracuse, DeVito never shined after his Sophomore season in 2019, but DeVito should fair well in an offense that relies on the run.

Defensively, Illinois is very young in the secondary, and although they were not tested much against Wyoming, they made plays when they needed to. Last season, the Illini did not give up big chunk plays, but with only two starters back in the secondary and not a lot of depth, this defense is likely for some regression from their top 30 ranking from last year.

Bounce Back year For The Hoosiers?

Coming off an impressive 2020 season, Indiana was unbelievably awful last season, especially on offense. They averaged 17.2 points per game last season and gave up 33.2 points per game. That kind of regression was very alarming when you were returning a decent amount of production.

However, Tom Allen had a pretty solid offseason through the transfer portal and grabbed 15 new players. One of those guys is Missouri quarterback transfer Connor Bazelak, who did not improve after his strong 2020 season, but a late-season injury derailed things for him.

This season, Bazelak has a pretty solid arsenal of guys around him in North Carolina transfer Emery Simmons and Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers. Still, his receiving room is young, and there is a lot of unknown about this offense. The offensive line, however, was one of the worst in the country last season, and they lost two starters, which could be a good or bad thing, but there is not a lot of experience, and the experience they do have is not all that great.

The Hoosiers were not good on defense last season either, ranking 108th in scoring, 109th in points per play, and 103rd in negative play %. Like the offense, they are getting some reinforcement in Ole Miss transfer Jonathan Haynes, and Tiawan Mullen, who was a 2020 First Team All-American cornerback, is back after missing most of last season.

Although they lost All-Big Ten linebacker Micah McFadden to the NFL, there are still some exciting pieces to this defense, and I would be pretty shocked if they do not take a step up this season. They have a lot of talent getting their first shots at real playing time in 5-star Dasan McCullough at linebacker and 4-star transfer Jared Casey. This unit, while unproven, should have a bounce-back year, especially with Allen's track record of building defenses.

The Pick:

Indiana has not officially announced their starting quarterback for this game, but it is going to Bazelak, which is exciting given his relatively high ceiling compared to Indiana quarterbacks of old.

Knowing how I have bet on college football in the past, all signs are pointing towards me taking Indiana, but I think that offensive line is a serious problem, and we are kind of banking on Bazelak being good, which he hasn't been for about a year and a half now.

On the other side, I have seen Illinois play a game, and again, not against great competition, but I saw many things I liked from that offense.

The offensive line had virtually no problems, the running game looks to be very effective again with Chase Brown, and the Illini finally have a quarterback that you can trust to make the passing game efficient.

My only concern with taking Illinois here is how good the Indiana secondary can be. Still, the Illini have some big receivers that block very well, which will help Illinois in the running game, where this defense might be vulnerable given their lack of experience in the front seven.

If you were a man of great knowledge like myself, you would have gotten Illinois at +3 earlier in the week. The number has been bet down to around 1.5 in most books, but I am still confident in the Illini to win this game. If you can find the ML at a good price, I would also advise you to jump all over that.

Pick: Illinois +1.5 (-114)

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