Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/6/2025 4:40 PM EDT

We have your Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Houston Astros hit the road to face the Miami Marlins.

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Houston Astros 100 (ESPN BET), Miami Marlins -105 (Caesars).
Best Spread Odds: Houston Astros -1.5 (-178 Caesars), Miami Marlins +1.0 (+128 BetRivers).
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 (-114 BetRivers), Under 8.5 (-120 Caesars).

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-06
Time: 4:40 PM EDT
Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
TV: -

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Preview

The Houston Astros (63-50) head to loanDepot Park to take on the Miami Marlins (55-56) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Astros, leading the AL West, come into this game with a strong overall record and a potent offense. They boast a .257 team batting average, ranking second in the league, and a .320 on-base percentage, placing them seventh. Their pitching staff also holds a respectable 3.70 ERA, ranking sixth in the league. Key offensive players for Houston include Jeremy Peña, who leads the team with a .324 batting average, and Jose Altuve, who has hit 18 home runs this season. Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz also provide significant power in the lineup.

The Miami Marlins, currently holding a 55-56 record in the NL East, have shown inconsistent form this season. While they've secured 6 victories in their last 10 games, their average scoring remains at 4.4 runs per game, matched by the same number of runs allowed. The Marlins have faced challenges with bullpen instability and struggles against top-tier opposing hitters. Offensively, Kyle Stowers leads the team with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs, and Xavier Edwards paces the team with a .348 OBP and 18 stolen bases.

On the mound for the Astros will be right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who holds a 1-1 record with a 5.59 ERA. For the Marlins, right-hander Janson Junk will take the hill, entering the game with a 5-2 record and a 3.86 ERA. LoanDepot Park is generally considered a neutral-to-slightly-batter-friendly park, with a park factor of 101, though it is 10% below average for home runs.

Both teams are dealing with significant injury lists. The Astros have Cristian Javier, Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, Spencer Arrighetti, Isaac Paredes, Lance McCullers Jr., Brandon Walter, J.P. France, Luis Garcia, Shawn Dubin, Yordan Alvarez, Zach Dezenzo, Pedro León, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski on the IL, with Glenn Otto day-to-day. The Marlins are without Andrew Nardi, Connor Norby, Jesus Tinoco, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, Ryan Weathers, and Griffin Conine.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Houston Astros have historically dominated their head-to-head matchups against the Miami Marlins. In their previous encounters, the Astros have claimed victory in 16 games, with 9 of those wins coming on the road. The Marlins, on the other hand, have managed only 8 wins in their head-to-head history, with just 2 of those occurring at home. The most recent game between these two teams, played yesterday, saw the Astros secure a commanding 7-3 victory at loanDepot Park. This continues a trend where Houston has won the previous two encounters at the Marlins' home stadium. The Astros also boast a significantly higher average runs scored in these matchups, with an impressive 5.62 runs compared to the Marlins' modest 3.69 runs.

Pick: Over 8.0 Total Runs

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The total for this game is set at 8.0 runs, and we are leaning towards the Over. The previous game between these two teams saw a combined 10 runs scored (Astros 7, Marlins 3), indicating a potential for offensive output. While loanDepot Park is slightly below average for home runs, it generally plays as a neutral-to-slightly-batter-friendly venue. The Houston Astros' offense is one of the league's best, ranking second in batting average, and they have demonstrated their ability to score runs against the Marlins in recent history. Furthermore, the Marlins' pitching staff has shown vulnerabilities, ranking 24th in team ERA. Although Marlins starter Janson Junk has a decent 3.86 ERA, Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti's 5.59 ERA suggests that runs could be scored against him. The ScoresAndStats model projects a total of 9 runs for this game, further supporting the Over.

Top Player Prop Picks

Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Kyle Stowers has been a significant power threat for the Miami Marlins this season, leading the team with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs. He has demonstrated a strong ability to hit fastballs, evidenced by his .547 slugging percentage against them this year. Facing Spencer Arrighetti, who carries a 5.59 ERA, Stowers is in a favorable position to contribute offensively and accumulate total bases. The line for Over 1.5 Total Bases is available at +125.

Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Jose Altuve remains a cornerstone of the Houston Astros' offense. With 18 home runs this season and an elite 9.2% barrel rate, Altuve possesses the power and hitting ability to exceed his total bases prop. While his career plate appearances against Janson Junk are limited, Altuve is a veteran slugger who is noted to be finding his timing, suggesting he's poised to string together hits. The line for Over 1.5 Total Bases is set at +105.

Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI

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Christian Walker has stepped up as a crucial power hitter for the Houston Astros, especially in the absence of Yordan Alvarez. Despite not having a hit in his three career plate appearances against Janson Junk, Walker's role in the Astros' potent offense provides ample opportunities to drive in runs. Given the expectation for the Astros' offense to be productive against the Marlins' pitching, Walker is a strong candidate to record an RBI. The odds for Over 0.5 RBI are +180, offering excellent value for a player with his run-producing capabilities.