Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/5/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Houston Astros hit the road to face the Miami Marlins.

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Houston Astros -108 on Fanduel
Best Spread Odds: Houston Astros -1.5 (+160) on Caesars
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-110) on Caesars

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-05
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
TV: -

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Preview

The Houston Astros (63-50) travel to loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (55-56) in the second game of their series. The Astros, leading the AL West, are coming off a dominant 8-2 victory in the series opener, showcasing their offensive power and pitching depth. The Marlins, despite their recent loss, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, boasting a 13-5 record in their last 18 games and a 30-15 run since June 13th, a remarkable turnaround from their previous 100-loss season.

For the pitching matchup, the Miami Marlins will send right-hander Cal Quantrill (4-8, 4.79 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) to the mound. Quantrill has given up 102 hits in 97.2 innings this season. The Houston Astros have not yet announced their starting pitcher, indicating a likely bullpen game with lefty reliever Steven Okert expected to open. This strategy leverages Houston's formidable bullpen, which ranks 5th in MLB with a collective 3.46 ERA, and an even better 3.21 ERA on the road, featuring strong closers like Josh Hader (28 saves) and setup men Bryan Abreu (24 holds) and Bryan King (21 holds).

Offensively, the Astros are a potent force, ranking 2nd in the league with a .257 team batting average and 7th in on-base percentage at .320. Key contributors include Jeremy Peña, who leads the team with a .324 batting average, Jose Altuve with 18 home runs, and power hitters Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz. The Marlins' offense, while ranked 6th in team batting average, will need to capitalize on their opportunities, with Kyle Stowers leading their charge with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs.

loanDepot park, despite its reputation, has played as one of MLB's more hitter-friendly venues this season, which could lead to a higher-scoring affair. The contrasting pitching strategies—a traditional starter for Miami versus a bullpen game for Houston—will be a key factor in this matchup.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the Houston Astros have held the advantage in recent head-to-head matchups against the Miami Marlins. Over their last 10 meetings, the Astros hold a 7-3 record against the Marlins. When playing in Miami, Houston has been particularly successful, winning 3 of their last 4 games against the Marlins. The series has also seen a trend towards higher scoring, with the Over hitting in 7 of their last 10 head-to-head encounters. Their last four matchups, dating back to the start of the 2024 season, have combined for 37 runs, indicating a propensity for offensive outbursts between these two teams.

Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline

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The Houston Astros moneyline at -108 on Fanduel presents excellent value in this matchup. Despite the Marlins' recent hot streak, the Astros demonstrated their superiority with an 8-2 victory in the series opener. The line movement, with the Marlins dropping from -130 favorites to near pick'em, suggests sharp money is coming in on Houston, indicating professional bettors are favoring the Astros. Houston's bullpen game strategy, led by opener Steven Okert and backed by a top-5 bullpen (3.46 ERA, 5th in MLB), provides a significant advantage over Miami's inconsistent relief corps (4.27 ERA, 22nd in MLB). While Cal Quantrill has been a workhorse for the Marlins, his 4.79 ERA leaves him vulnerable to Houston's potent offense, which ranks 2nd in batting average. The Astros' 21-13 record as underdogs further solidifies this pick, as they consistently perform well in challenging situations.

Top Player Prop Picks

Carlos Correa (Houston Astros) - Hits Over 0.5

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Carlos Correa has been a consistent hitter for the Astros, making his Hits Over 0.5 prop an attractive play. He has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 games and an impressive 90% over his last 10 games. Looking further back, he's cleared this line in 75% of his last 20 appearances. For the season, he has hit the over in 63.92% of his games. Against the Miami Marlins specifically, Correa has performed well, hitting the over in 66.67% of his 3 games against them in 2025 and 100% in 3 games in 2024. You can find the best odds for this prop at -240 on BetRivers.

Kyle Stowers (Miami Marlins) - Hits Over 0.5

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Kyle Stowers has been a reliable offensive contributor for the Marlins, making his Hits Over 0.5 prop a strong consideration. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10 games. Over his last 20 games, he's maintained a 75% hit rate for the over. For the season, Stowers has hit the over in 67.92% of his games. In his single appearance against the Houston Astros in 2025, he recorded a hit, hitting the over 100% of the time. When playing at home, he has hit the over in 66.07% of his games in 2025. The best odds for this prop are -165 on ESPN BET.

Cal Quantrill (Miami Marlins) - Pitcher Outs Over 14.5

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Despite facing a strong Astros lineup, Cal Quantrill has shown a consistent ability to pitch deep into games, making his Pitcher Outs Over 14.5 prop an appealing pick. He has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 5 starts and 70% of his last 10 starts. Over his last 20 outings, he's cleared this mark in 65% of his games. For the season, Quantrill has hit the over in 61.9% of his starts, averaging 13.95 outs per game. In his lone appearance against the Houston Astros in 2024, he recorded 15 outs, hitting the over 100% of the time. At home in 2025, he has hit the over in 66.67% of his starts. You can find the best odds for this prop at -190 on BetMGM.

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