Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/4/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Houston Astros hit the road to face the Miami Marlins.

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Miami Marlins -120 (Caesars) / Houston Astros +114 (Fanduel)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+100) (ESPN BET) / Under 8.5 (-109) (BetRivers)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-04
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: loanDepot park
TV: SCHN

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins, currently sitting at 55-55, are on an impressive five-game winning streak, having recently swept the New York Yankees. Their recent form has been exceptional, with an 8-2 record over their last ten games, showcasing a significant turnaround in their season. The Marlins' offense has been potent, ranking 6th in the league with a .252 team batting average. Key players like Kyle Stowers, who boasts 25 home runs and 71 RBIs, and Xavier Edwards, with a .348 OBP and 18 stolen bases, are driving their success. Rookie Jakob Marsee has also made a historic impact in his first three career games, adding another layer of excitement to their lineup.

Conversely, the Houston Astros (62-50) are looking to rebound after a challenging period, including a three-game losing streak and a sweep by the Boston Red Sox. Despite their recent struggles, the Astros maintain a strong overall record and a formidable offense, ranking 2nd in the league with a .257 team batting average. Jose Altuve, with 18 home runs and a 9.2% barrel rate, and Jeremy Peña, hitting .322 since the All-Star break, lead a lineup that recently saw the return of franchise icon Carlos Correa. While Yordan Alvarez's absence has impacted their slugging, Christian Walker has stepped up, particularly with a .533 SLG against left-handed pitching.

On the mound, the Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 6.36 ERA). Despite a high season ERA, the 2022 Cy Young winner has shown dominant form recently, tossing 12 scoreless innings over his last two starts. The Astros counter with journeyman Jason Alexander (1-1, 7.36 ERA). loanDepot Park, with a park factor of 101, is considered slightly batter-friendly, which could influence the game's scoring.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the Houston Astros have held an advantage over the Miami Marlins. Houston has won five of the last six meetings when playing on the road against Miami. Furthermore, the Astros have been particularly strong against National League opponents, holding an 8-1 record in their last nine games against NL teams. The Astros have also won the last five overall meetings between these two clubs.

Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs

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This matchup presents a compelling case for a higher-scoring game, making the Over 8.5 total runs an attractive pick. Both starting pitchers, Jason Alexander for the Astros and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins, have shown vulnerabilities that could lead to runs. Alexander carries a high 7.36 ERA and a concerning 1.75 home runs per nine innings rate, indicating a susceptibility to the long ball. While Alcantara has been impressive in his last two outings, his season ERA of 6.36 and a 14.2% barrel rate suggest he can be hit hard, especially by a potent offense.

The offensive capabilities of both teams further support the Over. The Miami Marlins are on a hot streak, averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last ten contests and boasting a .252 team batting average. Their key hitters, including Kyle Stowers and Xavier Edwards, are consistently getting on base and driving in runs. The Houston Astros, despite their recent slump, still possess one of the league's top offenses, ranking 2nd with a .257 team batting average. Players like Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña are capable of igniting rallies and capitalizing on pitching mistakes. The slightly batter-friendly environment of loanDepot Park (park factor of 101) could also contribute to more offense. Given the pitching matchups and the recent offensive trends, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair.

Top Player Prop Picks

Kyle Stowers (Miami Marlins) - Hits Over 0.5

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Kyle Stowers has been a consistent force for the Marlins, making the Over 0.5 Hits prop a strong play. He has hit the over on this line in 60% of his last 5 games, 80% of his last 10 and 15 games, and 75% of his last 20 games. For the season, he's hit the over in 67.62% of his games, and 65.45% when playing at home. Stowers has been a pivotal part of Miami's recent offensive surge, boasting a .396 wOBA with runners in scoring position and a .547 slugging percentage against fastballs, which he is likely to see frequently from Astros pitcher Jason Alexander. His recent performance, including two home runs and eight RBIs in the Yankees series, highlights his current form.

Best Odds: Over 0.5 Hits (-225) (BetMGM)

Christian Walker (Houston Astros) - Hits Over 0.5

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Christian Walker presents a compelling case for the Over 0.5 Hits prop. He has consistently hit the over on this line, doing so in 60% of his last 5 and 10 games, 73.33% of his last 15, and 65% of his last 20 games. His season hit rate for this prop is 61.32%, and it increases to 66.04% in away games. Notably, in 2024, Walker hit the over in 100% of his 3 games against the Miami Marlins, averaging 1.33 hits per game. He has been instrumental in the Astros' offense, particularly in filling the void left by Yordan Alvarez's absence, demonstrating his ability to contribute with the bat.

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