Parity eh? What a great idea.
The trouble with teams getting better (and worse) on a year-to-year basis, is that week 1 is an absolute nightmare for picking games. On the other hand, the good thing with picking is that the worse a team does, the easier they are to pick, and the same applies as teams get better. It's no surprise to find the likes of the Seahawks and Broncos at the top of our Team Difficulty Rankings, because they were consistently solid all season long. Similarly, the Jags manage to penetrate the top 10 by virtue of being consistently terrible.
That being said, there are some patterns that can help us explain why a team might be difficult to pick over a season. Here are the bottom four teams from our 2013 overall team difficulty ratings, and our reasoning as to why they were so difficult to pick:
1: Miami Dolphins (43% expert accuracy)
The Reason: The Dolphins were officially the team that experts couldn't get a handle on last season. Why? Well, this one is easy: They beat 6 teams that they really shouldn't have, and then lost against the Bills twice, the Bucs and the Jets. When 10 of your games go against the favorites, people are going to get you wrong more often than not. The Dolphins were also unpredictable at home, with only 36% of their games in Miami being correctly called by NFL analysts.
The Dolphins were underdogs in their first 4 games last year, yet came out of that period 3-1. They were then favorites to beat Baltimore and Buffalo, and of course they blew both games. This was a team that didn't handle pressure well, clearly, as evidenced by their final playoff 'push' (we use that term very loosely) that resulted in implosions against Buffalo and the Jets when they were still in with a shot at a wide open AFC playoff berth.
The Lesson: Some teams are just going to be damn hard to predict to spite you. When that is the case, we recommend taking note of which experts have the best record picking a team, and also figuring out a team's mentality. Do they tend to play better when they're underdogs? Do they wilt under pressure? These are things to remember about teams, particularly if the head coach or key personnel remain intact from a previous season.
2014 Difficulty Rating: 9/10 - If you can pick the Dolphins over 60% next year, that's a good achievement.
Pittsburgh Steelers (46% expert accuracy)
The Reason: Early season struggles can lead pickers to believe that a good team that loses winnable games early will ultimately not recover(see also: Falcons, A and Texans, H). When you slide to 0-4, as the Steelers did in '13, the weight of opinion can shift pretty dramatically - particularly if you lose to the Titans. One thing we noticed was that people began to question the likes of Dick LeBeau for the first time in a long time after the Vikings defeat at Wembley. Well, that leads us to the lesson...
The Lesson: Don't EVER write off a team that has a solid coaching staff and the locker-room character to not implode publicly. The Steelers are like a boulder: They pick up wins and losses in consecutive games and go on streaks, rather than winning games here and there. Pittsburgh has won 4+ consecutive games in 5 of the last 6 seasons, testamant to their reliance on momentum - and their ability to arrest decline.
2014 Difficulty Rating: 6/10 - History tells us they'll have bad runs, but look for a game where that run will end, unlike the guy who wrote-off LeBeau and finished bottom of all experts picking Pittsburgh last season.
Buffalo Bills (47.6% Expert Accuracy)
The Reason: A disclaimer: I am fond of the Bills, so apologies to any Buffalo fans reading, the next paragraph is meant with nothing but best wishes...
The Bills should be easy to predict (just pick'em to lose right? Right?) But they became a victim of fickleness. What you simply can't do with a team like Buffalo, is fall into the trap of - as with many NFL experts last year - 'chasing' their results. Don't be the guy who alternates your opinion based on their last game, because sure as hell, a team this bad will constantly, without fail, f... flip you over.
The Lesson: There's no point in trying to get back on track with a team like this. Just follow someone who is doing a better job than you of working them out, and give up on your own futile efforts. Seriously. That's one thing we aim to do most this year, is bring you up-to-date info about which experts are on top of each team. We know lots of analysts that are hot when picking certain teams, but are not so good overall, so keep an eye on our team pages this year for more help with 'troublesome' teams
2014 Difficulty Rating: 4/10: The Bills have lost their best defenders (Byrd and Alonso) and Sammy Watkins is banged up. Just remember they always, no matter what, have a surprise or two every year because other teams underestimate them. Our advice is to wait for them to lose a few games in a row and be written off - and then pick them to win a game they really shouldn't.
Tell us what you think
Which team do YOU think will be the hardest to pick in 2014? The Chargers, Jets and Eagles all tripped up the NFL experts last season - will they do so again this year? Or will a big team fall from grace and the analysts catch on late? Tell us on the forum, on Twitter or in the comments section. We'll highlight the best next week in our preview articles.
