Hello, and welcome back to our MLB best bets.
We have a full slate of games tonight both in the afternoon and the evening. To be honest, I am getting crushed on the diamond right now. I have only hit 50.2% of my baseball picks this month, and I am on a 1-5-1 run this week. Maybe my mind is distracted with college football starting this Saturday, but I have found two bets on the diamond tonight that I am feeling really good about.
Anyway, let's skip all the boring stuff and get straight into the picks. We would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 93% Astros
Runline: 66% Astros
The Astros are absolutely cooking right now. Over the last two weeks, Houston's offense is ranked third in runs (76), wOBA (.344), and wRC+ (127). The Astros have been continuously heating up for a month now, and they are finally getting some production out of Alex Bregman, which helps fill a once dominant hole in this lineup.
Bregman is slashing .351/.423/.680 with an OPS of 1.104 and a wRC+ of 212 over the last month, and he is one of 10 Astros that has a wRC+ over 100 in that period. Tonight, Houston will go up against Dylan Bundy, who comes into this game with a 4.60 ERA, but his xERA of 3.89 is promising when going up against this lineup. However, Houston has been a wagon at home this year.
At home this season, the Astros have an OPS of .773 and a wRC+ of 122. Bundy has also struggled on the road, with a .350 wOBA and he has given up 11 home runs in 63.1 IP on the road. Offensively, the Twins are struggling, and the losses are starting to pile up as they watch the division start to slip away. Minnesota is riding a four-game losing streak, and they are only 1-6 in their last seven road games.
The ML has way too much juice for me so we will take the value with the Astros on the RL.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-108)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 70% Diamondbacks
Runline: 68% Royals
I am a little shocked at how good of a price you can get Arizona tonight.
First of all, Zac Gallen will get the start for the Dbacks, and he is having a career year. he enters tonight with an ERA of 2.78 and a FIP of 3.27. While his xERA of 3.42 and xFIP of 3.46 point towards some regression, those would be career highs for Gallen. It also helps that Kansas City is awful.
On the season, the Royals are ranked 24th in runs (476), 25th in wOBA (.299), and 23rd in wRC+ (92). They have been even worse since the All-Star break, with an abysmal 69 wRC+. We expected Kansas City to regress after they shipped off some of their better bats at the deadline, but this team has no real promise right now, other than their starter tonight.
Brady Singer enters tonight with a career-best 3.27 ERA and an fWAR of 2.1. However, Arizona's offense is ranked ninth in runs (58), 12th in wOBA (.310), and 14th in OPS (.695) over the last two weeks. While those numbers do not jump off the page, their offense is getting better, and although Singer has been solid this season, the Royals have no offense, and their bullpen has a 4.76 ERA this season.
Arizona is 15-8 SU in Gallen's starts this season, and since the All-Star break, he has posted an incredible 0.92 ERA and is 6-0 in his six starts. I will back on Gallen to keep up his incredible stretch against a poor Royals team.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-130)
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images