Hello, and welcome back to our MLB best bets.
It has been a while, gang. With football season starting up, I have slowed down with my baseball picks, but the playoffs are right around the corner, and it is time to dust off the cobwebs.
I have still been betting on some baseball, and you can find all my plays on my Twitter account, or here. Anyway, we have two best bets for you on the diamond tonight, and if you have been following my baseball picks, you probably know one of the teams I am taking.
We would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 91% Guardians
Runline: 64% Guardians
One of my philosophies when it comes to gambling is to never bet on your favorite team. It truly can only end in heartbreak. However, I have been betting on my beloved Cleveland Guardians all season, and I am turning a nice profit doing so.
Two weeks ago, I declared the Guardians dead after they slipped down into second place in the division. Since then, they have jumped out to a three-game lead over the White Sox, and a five-game lead over the Twins.
I am not saying they are a lock to win the division, especially with four games remaining against the White Sox and a five-game set against the Twins coming up, but they are on the cusp of their first AL Central title since 2018.
Anyway, for this game, the Guardians will send out Cal Quantrill, who like last season, started slow but is really coming along as of late. Over his last seven starts, Quantrill has only allowed eight earned runs over 40.0 IP, and he has not allowed more than two runs in those starts. The Guardians are also 11-1 SU in his last 12 starts, and he has a 3.03 ERA during that time.
It also helps that the offense is starting to pick up after going into a slight lull. Over the last seven days, Cleveland is ranked 7th in OBP (.346), 12th in wOBA (.332), and 10th in wRC+ (118).
They are going up against lefty Patrick Sandoval today, and although the Guardians have a wRC+ of 85 against southpaws this season, Sandoval comes into this game with an xERA of 4.03 and an xFIP of 3.70.
Cleveland is red hot, and they are 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games against the Angels. Give me my Guardians on the ML.
Pick: Guardians ML (-116)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 89% Twins
Runline: 51% Twins
Listen, the Twins suck right now, but they have the advantage in this game going up against an even suckier team. The Royals did not have a lot of expectations coming into this season other than developing young talent like Bobby Witt Jr., but man, oh, man, are they tough to watch.
Kansas City is ranked 23rd in OBP (.306), 24th in runs (556), 25th in wOBA (.300), and they have a wRC+ of only 92. Now, Minnesota has not been THAT much better, but they are going up against Zack Greinke tonight, and that no longer is a bad thing for opposing teams, especially at home.
On the road, Greinke has a 6.33 ERA and is giving up a slash of .322/.354/.552 with a wOBA of .386. It also does not help Greinke that the Twins have a wRC+ of 111 against righties this season. The Twins will send out Sonny Gray, who comes in with a solid 3.09 ERA, but his xERA of 3.59 and xFIP of 3.74 points towards regression.
Thankfully, the Royals are not the team to jump on a bad pitcher, and tonight will be no different. Minnesota is desperate at this point as the Guardians and White Sox are surging, and it has become clear that the only way for one of those three teams to make the postseason is to win the AL Central.
The Twins are only 3-9 SU over their last 12 games, but they have beaten Kans City in five straight when they come to Target Field. At plus-value, I will take my chance with the Twins on the RL.
Pick: Twins RL -1.5 (+105)
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images
