Hello, and welcome back to our MLB best bets.
It has been a while, gang. With football season starting up, I have slowed down with my baseball picks, but the playoffs are right around the corner, and it is time to dust off the cobwebs.
I have still been betting on some baseball, and you can find all my plays on my Twitter account, or here. Anyway, we have two best bets for you on the diamond tonight, and if you have been following my baseball picks, you probably know one of the teams I am taking.
We would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 62% Guardians
Runline: 64% Guardians
O/U: 71% Over
This game is in that rare territory where the total is set below seven runs, and I have to completely talk myself out of blindly taking the over. The problem is that the starters for this game are two pitchers that I have a ton of respect for.
First of all, MY AL Central Champion Cleveland Guardians will send out Triston McKenzie, who is still a little more inconstant than you want to see, but over his last nine starts, he is 6-3 with 67 SOs in 60.1 IP and an ERA of 2.39. On the season, McKenzie comes into this game with a 3.04 ERA, and a 3.72 FIP, and although his K/9 is down to 8.98 this season, he has a favorable matchup against a Tampa Bay lineup that strikes out at a high percentage.
On the other side, Tampa will send out Tyler Glasnow who will make his first start in over a year coming off Tommy John surgery. The last time we saw him, he was flashing his elite stuff with a 2.66 ERA and a K/9 of 12.58.
The Rays have a K% of 23.1%, which is the 12th-worst number in the league, and they are ranked 21st in wOBA (.304) and wRAA (-28.6). Cleveland is not much better on offense, especially in the power department, but the Guardians thrive on contact and have a ton of speed on the bases. Cleveland leads the league in times a runner has gone from first to third, and they have four players that have an elite-level sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant.
However, despite Cleveland's low power numbers, their offense has been on fire lately. Over the last two weeks, the Guardians have scored the most runs in the league (81), and they are ranked seventh in wRAA (8.1) and eighth in wOBA (.328), and wRC+ (113).
The Rays are right around league average during that time, but they have also scored at least seven runs in three of their last five games, so this team can score, they just do not do it consistently.
With McKenzie's inconstancy and the fact that Glasnow has not pitched in a long time, I expect both starters to struggle and easily push this one over the total.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-104)
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 80% Yankees
Runline: 53% Blue Jays
O/U: 81% Over
The eyes of the baseball world will be on this game tonight, and every night until Aaron Judge hits the homerun to tie Rodger Maris' AL and Yankees team homerun records. By the way, I just need to get this off my chest, but this home run is certainly not important enough to be cutting into the middle of college football games. This is an important home run for Yankees fans, and that is practically it.
There is no true significance behind tying this record. I guess you can make a case it means a lot because it is the New York Yankees, but Judge will be playing with the Red Sox next year anyway, so who cares.
Anyway, the Yankees' offense leads baseball in wRC+, wOBA, BABIP, and ISO over the last two weeks, and although Judge is in a mini homer drought, he is actually putting up some good ABs, and he comes into this game batting .359 with a 30.4% walk rate over the last two weeks.
On the other side, Toronto has been very impressive on offense themselves as they look to wrap up a playoff spot. Over the last two weeks, the Jays are ranked sixth in runs (68), fourth in wRAA (9.8) and wOBA (.335), and they have a wRC+ of 120. This lineup will have its handsful with Gerrit Cole on the bump, but as a team, they are batting .267 with an SLG of .506 off Cole.
Both offenses are rolling right now, but the Yankees have been infinitely better, and they have the advantage with Cole getting the start. I do like the Yankees full-game ML, but my best bet for this game is to take the Yankees -0.5 F5.
Pick: Yankees -0.5 F5 (+110)
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images