Week 1 of the NFL season comes to a close tonight as the Denver Broncos will travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks on 'Monday Night Football.'
This is a fairly lopsided matchup, but this game is on primetime for one reason, and one reason only. Tonight, Russell Wilson will make his first start with the Broncos, and it just so happens to be on the road against the team that traded him in the offseason.
I do enjoy watching homecomings, especially when it involves a heavily beloved player, but I feel like we could have gotten a better matchup for the first Monday Night Football game of the year.
It is also the first game with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman in the ESPN booth, which is exciting for me as I love both of those guys, but also, the Monday Night Football crew has routinely been awful, so this is a massive improvement.
With only one game, I have decided to give you the best prop from three of the top sportsbooks in the country, as well as the best overall bet of the night through the book I use, BOVADA. If you decide to tail our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
Let's pick out some winners.
FanDuel: Russell Wilson Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-102)
I tend to stay away from "homecoming players" when looking at the prop market, but this game feels slightly different. The Seahawks unloaded practically everyone who matters, and it is clear that they are entering Year 1 of their post-Russell Wilson rebuild.
Even when they were "trying" to win last season, the defense was ranked 28th in yards per game, 27th in opponents' completion percentage, and 31st in passing yards per game. One would think that Wilson should have a massive night against an insufficient defensive secondary, especially since he has some extra motivation going up against his former team, but this game might get ugly fast.
Over the past few seasons, Denver has quietly built an elite roster, especially in their skill rooms, they were just missing a competent quarterback. Now that they have one, they should be able to run over one of the NFL's worst defenses, and with Seattle's offense not being much better, this has all the makings of a first-half ass-whooping.
Last season, Wilson averaged only 28.6 pass attempts per game, and he went over this number only twice. Unless Seattle is much better than we thought, Denver should be able to roll over this team, and Wilson can just chill tonight.
Barstool: Javonte Williams Over 58.5 Rushing yards (-114)
Taking the over in a two-running back offense is always tricky, but Javonte Williams was as exciting as you can get for a rookie running back last season. Williams averaged 53.1 rushing yards per game, and he went over this number six times.
Four out of the six times he went over this number were later in the season, and although Melvin Gordon was awesome for the Broncos down the stretch, it is clear that they are preparing for Williams to fully take over the starting role in the backfield. Both players had exactly 203 carries on the season, but Williams led the league in broken tackles as a rookie.
Tonight, Williams will get to face a Seattle front seven that lost Bobby Wagner and three players on the defensive line. Denver's offensive line is as average as they come, but they have a pretty easy job going up against a bad defense that got noticeably worse during the offseason.
As I said earlier, I expect this game to get ugly fast, meaning the Broncos are going to try and run the clock in the second half, which means more carries for Williams.
DraftKings Touchdown Scorer of the Night: D.K. Metcalf (+200)
I have spent this entire blog talking about how bad Seattle is going to be on both sides of the ball, but I absolutely love the value we are getting here.
Again, Seattle will likely be playing catch-up the entire second half (and possibly the whole game). This means Geno Smith will have a busy night as he tries to keep Seattle afloat.
In his four starts last season, Smith and Metcalf connected for five touchdowns, and in their five career games together, Metcalf is averaging 14.2 yards per reception and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game.
Seattle actually has some pretty interesting weapons on offense, but nobody is as interesting as Metcalf, and at this price, it is well worth a play.
Bovada Best Bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110)
If you have made it this far, I think you can probably guess which way I am leaning for this game.
This game feels too simple for me. The Broncos instantly became a contender after trading for Wilson, and Seattle was already at the end of their championship window, and have made their first steps towards a new era.
Denver is also breaking in a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, so do not expect the Broncos to win by 35+. However, looking at the Seahawks' defense, and all of the players they lost, I have no idea how they are going to stop Denver, and on the other side of that coin, I have no idea how their offense is going to be able to keep up.
I will lay the 6.5 with Denver, as they are just simply a way better team.
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images