Well, this series has certainly changed, hasn't it?
With Dallas taking both Games 3 and 4 on their home court, the series flips back to Phoenix, for the always important Game 5 of a best of seven. As they say, the series does not actually start until the road team picks up a victory.
I am not sure if Dallas is going to win tonight, but I do know which side you should throw a little action on. Tonight, we are here to give you the best bet for Game 5 of this series. Will Dallas win their third straight game to take a commanding 3-2 series lead, or will last season's Western Conference Champion reintroduce themselves to the basketball world?
Let's talk about it.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
And That, Is Dallas.
Through the first two games of the series, Luka Doncic was averaging over 40 points per game, and the Mavericks were still getting their doors kicked in by the Suns. They allowed 125 points per game in the first two games, and despite shooting the ball well, Phoenix just killed them with their depth.
Things have taken a dramatic turn, as Dallas only allowed Phoenix to score 97.5 points per game in Games 3 and 4, and the Doncic finally got some help from his friends. In the last two games, Dallas is shooting 44.6% from the field, and 39.8% from deep. Those are not blistering numbers, but they are more efficient, and they averaged seven more assists per game in Games 3 and 4 compared to the first two games of the series.
The question immediately becomes is this sustainable for The Mavericks? Devin Booker and Chris Paul struggled in Dallas, and it is only going to take one of Booker and/or Paul to flip this series back in favor of Phoenix. Dating back to last season, we know that what the Suns are doing can win a championship. There is no doubt in my mind that the team that won the most games during the regular season can win at least two more games.
However, Dallas had one of the best defenses in the NBA during the regular season. They ranked second in scoring, sixth in effective field goal percentage and seventh in shooting efficiency. With all the momentum on their side, the Mavericks may have just taken full control of this series.
Can Phoenix Beat The One-Year Wonder Allegations?
The biggest reason for Phoenix dropping the last two games of this series is the play of Paul and Booker. The Suns are deep enough to win if one of their two stars has an off night, but they cannot carry the entire workload.
Over the last two games, Paul only put up 8.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 6.0 rebounds per game. While he is shooting 53.8% from the field, he only took 6.5 shots per game, which just simply will not work for Phoenix. While Booker scored 26.5 points per game over the last two, he was a -12 in both games.
Even if Booker and Paul regain their old form tonight, the Suns now have to worry about the players around Doncic, which they did not have to do during the first two games of the series. The Mavs are taking the most threes per game in the playoffs, and over the last two games, they hit 16.5 threes per game on 39.8% shooting.
The Suns tried their hardest from allowing Doncic to beat them over the last two games, and they did stifle him, not by a lot, but he was not as dominant as he was during the first two games of the series. However, that opened the door for those around him to go off, and they did. It feels weird to say "maybe we just have to let Luka go off for 50 points a night" but apparently, it is an effective strategy.
At the end of the day, the Suns just need Doncic to try and be the hero. When he does that, the Mavericks lose all rhythm on offense, and then Phoenix can swoop in and pick them apart.
Mavericks-Suns Game 5 Prediction:
The Pickwatch experts are all over the home favorites tonight, with 63% of the tickets going towards Phoenix to cover the six-point spread.
Coming into tonight, Dallas has covered in seven of their last nine, and they were one of the most profitable teams all season, with a 54-36-2 record ATS this season. That includes going 27-19 ATS on the road. On the other side, Phoenix was also one of the more profitable teams in the NBA, going 50-42 ATS.
Both teams can score in bunches, and both teams have elite defenses. This game is not an easy one to predict, but I do know that all the momentum is favoring Dallas right now, and they have the best player in the series.
I am not sure if they will win this game, but getting six points with the Mavericks feels as close to a lock as we are going to get this postseason. We are going to fade the experts and ride Dallas to cover tonight.