The Suns put out the most dominating seven-point win in the history of basketball during Game 1 of this series. Despite a big night from Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were quickly reminded that the Suns had the best record in basketball for a reason.
Luckily for the Mavs, there are still more games to play, and despite getting rolled, they shot the ball well, and there were some good things to take out of their offensive performance in Game 1. Defensively, not so much, but that defense has been one of the best in the NBA all season.
Tonight, we are here to give you the best bet for Game 2 of this series. Can the Mavericks tie the series heading backing to Dallas, or will the Suns take a commanding 2-0 series lead on their way to defending their Western Conference title?
Let's talk about it.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Trends:
- Dallas is 5-1 ATS In Their Last 6 Games
- The Over Has Gone OVER In 6 Of Dallas' Last 8 Games
- Phoenix Is 4-1 ATS In Their Last 5 Games
- The Total Has Gone OVER In 5 Of Phoenix's Last 6 Games
Luka (Tragic) Magic:
The score was a lot uglier than it looked at the end of Game 1 for the Mavericks. With eight minutes left in the game, the Mavs were down 21 points. Somehow, they only ended up losing 121-114, and they had a chance to hit a three with no time left to cover the 5.5-point spread.
I cannot stress enough how not mad I am that Spencer Dinwiddie did not hit that shot to secure the cover. I am totally not mad about a WIDE OPEN missed shot.
Anyway, despite a 45/12/8 night from Doncic, the Mavericks did not have an answer for the Suns in Game 1. All five of Phoenix's starters scored double-digit points, and Cam Johnson added 17 points off the bench, with three made three-pointers.
Honestly, Dallas did not have a bad night shooting the ball, as they hit 41% of their threes and 47.1% of their shots from the field. However, they got dominated on the glass, and with the trade of Kristaps Porzingis at the deadline, Dallas does not have a solid rim protector to counter the Sun's incredible length.
For the Mavericks' sake, they better hope that their 4th quarter run in Game 1 sparked something for the rest of the series. If Doncic is putting up those types of numbers, and they got comfortably beaten, this series is not going more than four games.
Death By Role Players:
I guess you can call Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton a big three, but the Suns beat teams by their incredible depth, rather than their stars taking over. Do not get me wrong, Booker and Paul can absolutely dominate games, and they have this postseason. But the supporting cast is going to be key in this series.
It is no surprise that Dallas lives and dies with Doncic. In Game 1, Doncic took 36% of the Mavericks' shots, and he was the only player for Dallas to go over 20 points. If he did not go off in Game 1, I would be saying that Dallas needs an MVP night from their franchise player to win. Well, he had one of those games last time, and the Suns had no problems.
If your star player is good enough to carry the load, then more power to you. But the Suns can throw so many fresh bodies at him, and just make life irritating for Dallas.
The Suns are one of the more efficient offenses in the NBA, and it showed in the last game. They shot 50.5% from the field and only had nine turnovers to 27 assists. To put it in simpler terms, Phoenix is a "complete team" while the Mavericks are a one-man show. While the latter is more fun to watch, especially when it is working, the former is the better team to bet on.
Mavericks-Suns Game 2 Prediction:
The Pickwatch experts are undecided, with a 50-50 split of the bets on the spread, and honestly, I feel the same way.
It is hard to imagine that the Mavericks will lose if Doncic puts up those types of numbers again. Dallas shot the ball very well in Game 1, but Phoenix just did it a little bit better and in multiple different ways.
Coming into the postseason the Suns were the 10th-ranked scoring defense in the NBA and the Mavs had the second-best scoring defense. The last game was a little uncharacteristic by both teams as they played fast, and neither team did all that well on the defensive side of the court.
The trends support the over in this game, but I think the value lies under the total. In the last nine matchups between the Suns and Mavs, the total has gone under in six of those games. For the entire season, the total went under in 53 of Dallas' 89 games played and 43 times in the same amount of games for the Suns
With how poorly both defenses played in Game 1, and how slow both teams have played through the entire season, I am all over the under tonight.
