Do you know what is better than one night of MACtion? Back-to-back nights of MACtion!
I went 1-1 with my picks last night, but even with the loss on the Ball State v Kent State over, I had a perfect night. Sometimes, a game does not hit, but you know it was the right pick. I could tell that both teams wanted to avoid the comedy of errors they ran into, but they just simply couldn't. That game is played any other night, and we have a 55-52 shootout.
Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for tonight. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Western Michigan (+4.5) @ Bowling Green O/U 48
Now, here's a game that features two offenses that are hilariously bad.
Western Michigan comes into this game scoring only 17.4 points per game, picking up 4.1 yards per play, and they are ranked 107th in Rush Success and Pass Success, 113th in Line Yards, and 112th in Finishing Drives. They are starting a freshman at quarterback in Treyson Bourguet after Jack Salopek, and their offensive line has been a mess since the start of the season, but they are also just not getting enough in the skill room as the Broncos are only picking up 3.3 yards per rush and a putrid 5.6 yards per pass.
On the other side, Bowling Green has not been much better, but they have at least had their moments. This offense has put up 31+ points four times this season, including a 57-point performance earlier in the season against E Kentucky. However, this offense is not that impressive as a whole, as they rank 98th in Rush Success, 95th in Pass Success, 112th in Line yards, and 119th in Finishing Drives.
La’Darius Jefferson takes of for a 43 yard score to put Western Michigan (-20) out in front 7-3
— Bet The Pigskin (@betthepigskin) November 28, 2020
pic.twitter.com/o3jnb24N9l
The Falcons have had some moderate success through the air as they are picking up 6.6 yards per pass and quarterback Matt McDonald has 16 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Still, the offensive line ranks 100th in Pass Blocking, while Western Michigan's defense ranks 16th in Pass Rush and 43rd in Finishing Drives. Bowling Green's defense is similar as they are 9th in Pass Rush and 26th in Rush Success, but they are only 122nd in Finishing Drives and are a poor tackling team.
As a whole, Bowling Green has looked like the better team in the box scores, but Western Michigan is going to make life hell for a BG offense that has not had a lot of consistent Success, and although the Broncos' offense is not a good one to be behind, I trust them to score on this Bowling Green defense that is one of the worst at allowing third down conversions.
Pick: Western Michigan +4.5
Central Michigan (+5.5) @ Northern Illinois O/U 57
The defending MAC champion Northern Illinois Huskies will host a Central Michigan team that only has two wins on the year, but they have been competitive in every game they have played, including against Oklahoma State and a little bit of their Week 5 game against Penn State.
A big part of their competitiveness in those games is that their defense has been solid, as they are only allowing 5.4 yards per play, 3.6 yards per rush, and they are ranked 41st in Rush Success, 44th in Pass Rush, and 2nd in Line yards. However, they have not been very good against the pass as they are ranked 92nd in Pass Success, allowing 7.9 yards per pass and allowing teams to complete passes at a 65% clip.
Now, Northern Illinois ranks 31st in Pass Success, and they are picking up 7.0 yards per pass, but both Rocky Lombardi, who has missed some time, and his backup Ethan Hampton are listed as questionable tonight, but the Huskies moving to a six-point favorite this morning after hovering around 4.5 tells me that there is a good chance that Lombardi plays tonight. If he does, Northern Illinois has an explicit formula for winning this game: airing the ball out.
Rocky Lombardi threw a missile down the field 🎯 pic.twitter.com/0fU1j4hCkn
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 11, 2021
The Huskies are putting up 30.3 points per game and are picking up 5.6 yards per play, but defensively, they are getting nothing. They are ranked 113th in scoring, 119th in yards per pass, 114th in Pass Success, and 127th in Finishing Drives. Luckily, the Chippewas offense is awful, especially on the ground, as they are only picking up 3.2 yards per rush, and although Northern Illinois has gotten torched through the air, I do not trust this Central Michigan passing attack.
Even with the line movement, I will take the Huskies in this spot. Central Michigan has been competitive, but their offense has failed to show up many times this season against equally awful defenses.
Pick: Northern Illinois -5.5
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images