Ladies and gentlemen, it is finally once again time to give out some winners for Tuesday night MACtion.

So far this season, I am only 2-2 with my MACtion picks, but I feel great about it. Sometimes, you pick a side in a game that looks good for most of the game, and then suddenly, you are broke and doing that thing where you pretend for five seconds that maybe your dumb brain accidentally picked the other side. That has happened twice this MACtion season, which tells me I have a winning streak on the horizon.

Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for tonight. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Ohio (-2.5) @ Miami (OH) O/U 51.5

The 6-3 Ohio Bobcats are on a roll right now as they have won four straight and are putting up 39.2 points per game during their winning streak. Ohio was not really projected to do anything at the beginning of the season, but thanks to an improved defense and terrific play from quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

The Bobcats also have a reliable receiver for the first time in what feels like forever, as Ohio State transfer Sam Wiglusz has emerged as one of the best slot receivers in the MAC and possibly the country. He comes into this game with 55 catches for 710 yards and nine touchdowns to lead a Bobcats passing attack that is ranked 21st in Yards Per Pass (8.4), 38th in Completion Percentage (64%), and 25th in Passing Yards Per Game (281).

Their passing attack was not thought too highly of coming into the season as Rourke had a brutal ending to the 2021 season, and there was a lot of unknown in the skill room. Luckily, those questions have been addressed, as Rourke has a stable of guys to throw to, and his numbers are up across the board. He will lead an Ohio offense that does not run the ball all that well, but they are ranked 20th in Pass Success and 17th in Pass Blocking.

Former Ohio State receiver Sam Wiglusz is having a hell of a year for Ohio. 50-585-7 so far, and had two TDs yesterday against Northern Illinois, including one where he mossed the DB pic.twitter.com/1Rx111XhQs
— Colton Denning (@Dubsco) October 23, 2022

On the other side, Miami's defense has been one of the best in the MAC as they are ranked 32nd in Scoring (22.4), 26th in Yards Per Play, 32nd in Rush Success, 41st in Line Yards, and 15th in Finishing Drives. However, the Redhawks are also ranked 72nd in Pass Success, 100th in Pass Rush, and 75th in Coverage (PFF).

Offensively, they are as dead as you can be as they rank 130th in Rush Success, 110th in Pass Success, 114th in Finishing Drives, and they only put up 18 points per game. However, they will be getting starting quarterback Brett Gabbert back tonight, who led one of the country's most lethal and effective passing attacks last season. Tonight, he will go up against an Ohio defense that has struggled against the Pass, ranking 106th in Pass Success, 92nd in Yards Per Pass, and 84th in Pass Rush.

Basically, We have a really good passing offense in Ohio versus a potentially improved passing attack from Miami; both defenses stink!

You know what that means.

Pick: Over 51.5

Ball State (+11.5) @ Toledo O/U 50

As of now, Toledo's starting quarterback, and the best quarterback in the MAC, DeQuan Finn, is listed as questionable for tonight, and if he cannot go, Ball State has a massive advantage. While backup Tucker Gleason threw for three touchdowns last week, he is only completing 52.5% of his passes, and he has only thrown 49 career passes in his third season in the FBS.

Ball State is only ranked 77th in Pass Success and 95th in Pass Rush on defense; however, they are also 48th in Finishing Drives, and according to PFF, they are ranked 59th in coverage. This is where life can get complicated for Ball State if Finn plays, but after reading and discovering that Toledo Rockets fan boards exist, I can firmly say that the Toledo faithful has doubts about his availability.

We are operating under the assumption that Gleason will get the start, and while he has been fine, the Cardinals only allow 0.361 points per play and 5.1 yards per play, signaling that they limit the explosive Pass, and they are ranked 24th by PFF in tackling. Toledo is equally as impressive on defense as they are ranked 20th in Rush Success, 68th in Pass Sucess, and 32nd in Line Yards, but they are also ranked 111th in Finishing Drives, and the Rockets are giving up 30.3 points per game.

Ball State (+220 ML) starts off MACtion season with a W ✅pic.twitter.com/Qm0ljsRARm
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 2, 2022

It is clear that Toledo is the better team in this matchup, but they could be in serious trouble without Finn. Ball State was able to pound the air out of the ball against Kent State last week, which is an area of concern for Toledo as they allow 4.2 yards per rush and 172.3 rushing yards per game.

I will take Ball State as a double-digit dog in this spot with Finn likely not playing and a Cardinals' defense allowing only 19.2 points per game over their last four.

Pick: Ball State +11.5

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