Ladies and gentlemen, I have some unfortunate news to share. I do not really love the board this weekend. 

HOWEVER, I will always find the best bets on the board for the people. I have gone cold with my best bets, but I feel a hot streak coming. Whenever I am cold and do not like my slip, I always end up crushing it, and this would be the perfect time to get hot as we are on Day 2 of 27-straight days of football. 

It may not seem like it based on these last few weeks, but we have been printing money at the Gamblign Corner this season, and we would love for you to get in on the action. If you decide to follow our picks, first of all, S/O to you and everyone you love, but we also ask that you bet responsibly. 

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Best Bets:

 

Ohio State (-15.5) @ Penn State O/U 61

 

Penn State recovered from their ass-whoopin' from the hands of Michigan nicely in the 'White Out' game as they crushed Minnesota, but this team is not even close to being ready to knock off the Buckeyes. However, James Franklin has never lost to Ohio State by more than two touchdowns, and they have had plenty of chances to upset the class of the Big Ten, but they ultimately fall short in every year besides 2016.

In previous season, Penn State would have had an advantage as they are ranked 30th in Finishing Drives, 15th in Havoc, and 52nd in Pass Success. This would have been the perfect recipe to upset Ohio State if the Buckeyes did not fix their soft defense. New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has this defense ranked 2nd in Pass Success, 3rd in Rush Success, 6th in Line Yards and Pass-Rush, and Ohio State is 14th in Tackling and Coverage, according to PFF.

That is a remarkable difference from past seasons.

The offense has been the best in the country, as expected. Still, they have been without Jaxson Smith-Njgiba for most of the season, so the fact that they are BETTER than they were last year after losing two first-round receivers and the best receiver in the country dealing with injuries is quite remarkable.

 

 

This offense is also ranked 32nd in Pass Blocking and 1st in Line Yards, so although Penn State's front seven is nasty, they are at a disadvantage as the best offense in the country is operating at an insane level at every position on the field.

I do believe Penn State can make this frisky because Ohio State's offense has been stunned against Notre Dame and Iowa (aka the best defenses they have seen), but Sean Clifford has struggled against worse Buckeye defenses, and this is the best defensive unit he has ever seen out of Ohio State.

Even though Ohio State is more lethal through the air, the recipe to pound this team was discovered by Michigan, which is to have a great offensive line, and a great rushing attack. Ohio State has both of those things, with one of the top-rated offensive lines in the country and a two-headed monster of TrayVeon Henderson and Miyan Williams in the backfield.

There is not a secondary in the country that can keep up with these receivers, but Penn State has some dawgs in their defensive backfield, so I expect the Buckeyes to try and pound the Nittany Lions into submission as Michigan did and keep this game under the total. Clifford is always a threat to have an unexpectedly excellent performance, but I cannot stress enough just how vastly improved Ohio State is on defense.

Pick: Under 61

 

Notre Dame (+2.5) @ Syracuse O/U 47.5

 

Syracuse was oh-so-close to knocking off Clemson and becoming real players for the College Football Playoff. Instead, the Orange blew a second-half lead and still have a chance to have a magical season, but they have a tough ask this week as the Irish come into town.

Some of you may have laughed at that, but Notre Dame comes into this game better than their 4-3 record indicates. The Irish offense ranks 17th in Havoc, 18th in Pass Blocking, 23rd in Line yards, and 31st in Rush Success, and although the quarterback situation has been a nightmare, they are ranked 37th in Pass Success, and they are picking up 7.4 yards per pass.

Now, Drew Pyne could be better, and Notre Dame only throws the ball 28 times, but when they throw the ball, the Irish are not as awful as they are believed to be. However, the formula is clear for Notre Dame's success as they still have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and their physical rushing attack led by Audric Estime and Logan Diggs can really drain a front seven, which opens up the passing game.

 

 

Syracuse's defense is 6th in Pass Success, but they are also ranked 105th in Pass Rush, and their front seven has not been very good against the run as they are 84th in Rush Success, 87th in Line yards, and they are giving up 4.0 yards per rush.

This is a great spot to back the Irish getting points. Syracuse is fresh off a kick to the balls against Clemson, and Notre Dame has the perfect formula to take down the Orange, who have been very lucky to be in the spot they are.

Pick: Notre Dame +2.5

 

Wake Forest (-3) @ Louisville O/U 64

 

Wake Forest is not being talked about enough for my liking. One could argue that they outplayed Clemson a few weeks ago, but the Tigers do what they do and beat ACC teams. Since then, the Demon Deacons have been putting up 39.6 points per game, and they are outscoring teams by an average of 24 points in that same period.

While the offense continues to do its thing under Sam Hartman, the defense has been much better than I and many others expected. They are ranked 2nd in Pass Rush, eighth in Havoc, 40th in Rush Success, and 55th in Pass Success. According to PFF, Wake Forest is also the 27th-ranked team in Coverage, but they are only 84th in tackling, which may be a problem against Malik Cunningham.

Last season, Cunningham torched this defense for four total touchdowns, but he has taken a noticeable step backward this season as he only has five touchdown passes on a 60.3% completion percentage, and while he has nine rushing touchdowns on 6.3 yards per rush, but this offense is wildly inconsistent, as we saw last week against Pitt.

 

 

Defensively, this unit is better than the stats indicate, but they are ranked 122nd in Tackling and 110th in Coverage, according to PFF. The Cardinals' defense has been good against the pass, but Wake Forest is putting the ball on the ground on 55% of their plays, and although they are only 89th in Rush Success, Wake Forest is cooking right now, and I trust this offense to have a big night against a hit-or-miss team.

Pick: Wake Forest -3

 

The Full Card:

 

Florida (+22.5) @ Georgia O/U 56.5

 

"The World's Largest Cocktail Party" will probably be a boring affair this season, but there is a lot of value with the under in this one. Florida's offense actually looks pretty good on paper as they rank 4th in yards per rush (6.0), 18th in Line yards, 33rd in Pass Blocking, and 25th in Havoc. However, they are also 69th in Finishing Drives, and they are only putting up 28 points per game, which simply will not work against this Georgia defense.

Georgia's defense will do its thing, and the offense will be able to move the ball against a terrible Florida defense, but I expect this to be a physical game in which Georgia will eventually suffocate the life out of the Gators and keep this game under the total.

Pick: Under 56.5

 

Illinois (-7.5) @ Nebraska O/U 50.5

 

There are many surprise teams this season. Some of them are benefiting from easy schedules, while others are just simply outperforming their talent level. However, I can say without a doubt that Illinois is just simply an excellent football team.

The Illini's defense ranks 1st in Finishing Drives and Havoc, 2nd in Rush Success, 4th in Pass Success, 7th in Line yards, and 18th in Pass Rush. According to PFF, they are also 3rd in Pass coverage and 23rd in tackling. They are also the No. 1 ranked defense in scoring (10.3), completion percentage (44%), yards per play (3.8), yards per pass (4.9), total yards per game (238.8), and points per play (0.165).

Those haters and losers who like to play the "well they haven't played anyone, so they must be actually bad at playing football' are out in full force to try and disparage my Illinois Fighting Illini, but this team is playing lights-out defense; they have the best running back in the country in Chase Brown, the offensive line is very solid, and while Nebraska is much improved after firing Scott Frost, Nebraska has too many flaws for me to back them against a team that is not getting enough respect.

I was able to get the Illini at -6.5, but I would also take them at their current number.

Pick: Illinois -6.5 (Bet Up To -7.5)

 

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