Ladies and gentlemen, it is once again time to give out my best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.

I will not lie to yall, it has been a bad two weeks for my best bets after starting the season hot, but to be fair, I did not love the board last week, and the only bet that mattered ( Tennessee +8.5) hit, so In the grand scheme of things, last week was good for your boy.

Anyway, I am still hitting over 60% of my bets this college football season, which is awesome, but I am still gunning to take down my personal record that I set last season of 62.4%, so I have some work to do. Luckily for those of you who are rooting for me to succeed, I LOVE the board this weekend.

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*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Best Bets:

 

Kansas State (+3.5) @ TCU O/U 54.5

 

This game not only has a lot of implications for the Big 12, but it holds a lot of personal importance to me. Coming into the season, I thought TCU would struggle with uncertainty in the quarterback room, a new head coach for the first time in my life, and a few key players transferring out of the program.

Instead, TCU has sprinted out to a 6-0 record with wins over Oklahoma by 31 and Kansas in Lawrence. Then last week they had a big comeback to knock off previously unbeaten Oklahoma State. To be honest, I do not think I am going to be cashing my TCU under 6.5 wins ticket I placed in the summer.

Speaking of my win total bets, Kansas State is not unbeaten heading into this game, but they are two wins away from cashing the over on their 6.5 wins, and their offense is going to be a challenge going up against a TCU defense that has not been very good.

Entering this game, the Frogs' defense is ranked 69th (nice) in scoring, 96th in yards per game, 50th in points per play, and they are allowing 5.3 yards per play.

Luckily for TCU, their offense is very similar to Kansas State's in terms of they like to run the ball, and they have a dual-threat quarterback in Max Duggan. However, the Cats are only allowing 20 points per game, 5.1 yards per play, and 0.277 points per game, which might be the key stat for this game as both these teams are ranked inside the top 20 in rush explosiveness.

 

 

Personally, I think that TCU is overperforming a little bit and they have yet to play a comparable team until this week. With Kansas State having the advantage on defense, I will take this rushing attack led by Deuce Vaughn, and Nebraska transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez, who has yet to throw an interception this season, to run all over a defense that is due for some regression.

I also like that I am getting a Kansas State team that is coming off a bye last week going up against TCU, who needed a big comeback and two overtimes to take down the Pokes.

Pick: Kansas State +3.5

 

UCLA (+6.5) @ Oregon O/U 70.5

 

Oregon and UCLA are the only remaining undefeated teams in Pac-12 play, and while Oregon still has some work to do after this game to gain back some faith from the public after their Week 1 beatdown by Georgia, this game could put both teams, especially UCLA in a good spot as we get closer to the playoffs.

The Ducks are coming off a bye, and this should come as no surprise, but they have one of the more electric offenses in the Pac-12. Entering this game, Oregon is ranked 21st in scoring (36.4), 14th in total yards per game (494.2), 18th in points per play (0.519), and they are picking up seven yards per play. Now, while the highs of the Bo Nix experience are high, the lows are quite possibly the lowest you can get from a "good" college football quarterback.

Nix has lit up a few bad defenses, but the stupid mistakes are still there, and I feel like we are due for one. While Oregon has won 22-straight in their backyard, they are welcoming in a defense that ranks 27th in Defensive Pass Success Rate, 20th in yards per play (4.8), and 16th in total rush defense. I am not saying that UCLA has an elite defense because they certainly do not, but outside of Georgia, the Ducks have not played a comparable unit.

 

The Bruins' offense is going to be the key in this game as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is having a breakout season in his 50th year of college ball. He leads the top-ranked offense in Pass Success Rate, and he is putting up 294.2 yards per game, which ranks inside the top 25 in the country. They are not only moving the ball through the air, but they are averaging 5.4 yards per rush and 209.8 yards per rush as Thompson-Robinson and leading rusher Zach Charbonnet have combined for 847 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

UCLA has covered seven of its last eight road games and seven of its last nine overall. I like the Bruins in this spot getting just under a touchdown.

Pick: UCLA +6.5

 

Kansas (+10) @ Baylor O/U 58.5

Kansas has now lost two straight and looking at the rest of their schedule, it is going to be a grind to get that sixth win to be bowl eligible. First of all, they have to travel to Waco to take on a spiraling Baylor team that is still a tough team to beat, especially at their place.

However, quarterback Blake Shapen was forced to exit last week's loss to West Virginia with an injury, and although he practiced this week, his status is still unknown for this game. Speaking of hurt quarterbacks, the Jayhawks had Jalon Daniels back at practice this week after suffering what appeared to be a season-ending injury against TCU two weeks ago, but his status is also unknown, with it unlikely he will play.

For Kansas, they would turn to Jason Bean, who has lit up the box score, but is 0-1 as a starter, and came up just short in his action against TCU after Daniels got hurt. On the other side, the Bears have backup Kyron Drones ready to go if needed and based on his performance against West Virginia last week, that is probably a good thing for Kansas.

 

 

I do not think Baylor's 3-3 record is indicative of how good they are, but the fact they are 10-point favorites against this Kansas offense that has proven to be just as explosive with their backup quarterback is puzzling to me. I get that the defense is awful, but simply put, I don't see how Baylor outscored Kansas.

I am taking Kansas and the points and am not thinking twice about it. I have bet on this team every week so far this season, and I will be damned if two little losses have deterred me from putting my hard-earned money on my beloved Jayhawks.

Pick: Kansas +10

 

Best Of The Rest:

 

Minnesota (+4.5) @ Penn State O/U 43.5

 

No matter how bad you think Penn State got its ass kicked last week, I can promise you it was worse than you thought. Michigan outrushed this team 418-111, and they held the ball for 41 minutes of game time compared to Penn State's 18 minutes of possession. The fact that they were winning that game at one point truly is bizarre. They got crushed as badly as you can get for a top-tier Big 10 matchup.

On the other side, the Golden Gophers are coming off a loss to Illinois, but they lost Tanner Morgan in that game, and the Illini are just simply a better team. The status of Morgan is unknown as of now, but there is optimism that he will be able to go.

Even without him, I like Minnesota here. They are seventh in Offensive Success Rate, Mohamed Ibrahim has rushed for over 100 yards in every game this year, and he is picking up an incredible 4.7 yards after contact, which will be key against a poor Penn State run defense.

Last week was just an ass-kicking and not totally telling of how bad the Nittany Lions are against the run, but on the season, they rank 86th in Rushing Success Rate and they are one of the worst tackling teams at the next level in the country.

Pick: Minnesota +4.5

 

Ole Miss (+2) @ LSU O/U 65

 

Yes, an undefeated top-10 team is a two-point underdog to a two-loss LSU team. There is a good reason for that as Death Valley is the hardest place to play in the country no matter how good or bad LSU is, and the Rebs are not as good as their record indicates.

I will say right now, we are going to focus on the total. I want no part of this spread on either side.

These are two fast-paced teams, but both teams are also run-first offenses as Ole Miss runs the ball the fifth most per game in the country (48.8) and the Tigers are putting the ball on the ground 37.2 times per night. Defensively, both units are as mid as you can get for SEC teams, but they are both inside the top 25 in finishing drives, which is an insane advantage for the under with two run-heavy offenses.

Pick: Under 65

 

Syracuse (+14) @ Clemson O/U 49.5

 

This is the true Orange Bowl, IMO.

First of all, a special shoutout to the Syracuse Orange for starting the season 6-0. That is a tremendous accomplishment for a low-tier Power 5 program and they have a chance to make this season extra special with a win over Clemson.

The Orange are a well-balanced offense with the emergence of quarterback Garrett Shrader and star running back Sean Tucker, and their defense is top-10 in Finishing Drives as well as top-25 in Havoc. On the other side, Clemson's offense continues to impress, but my one take on this team is that it seems like it takes a lot for this team to score 30 points in a game. They are just missing that extra "oomph" that they got in previous years from players like Tee Higgins, Travis Etienne, Justyn Ross, and a plethora of other skill players.

Defensively, I think we are all willing to admit that Clemson doesn't have an all-time defense like many thought. They rank 54th in Line Yards, 69th (nice) in Opponents' Red Zone Scoring Percentage, and they have a long list of injured players.

With all of that said, however, I do not trust Syracuse or Clemson at this number. Instead, I will take the over as I think both offenses are efficient, and while Syracuses' defense looks good on paper, they have not been tested like they will this week.

Pick: Over 49.5

 

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