Ladies and gentlemen, it is time to give out the best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.
First of all, it is very depressing that we are already at Week 7 of the season, but oh my lord is this an exciting week. We have two-top 10 matchups, a chance to watch Alabama lose, which is always morally ok to root for, and there are six ranked matchups throughout the entire day.
I hope you have actually been tailing my picks because I am officially on fire. Over the last three weeks, I am 12-5-1 with my best bets, and throughout the whole season, I am hitting at a 63.1% clip, which is just under my personal best from last season.
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*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Best Bets:
Alabama (-785) @ Tennessee O/U 65.5
This is undoubtedly the biggest game for the Tennessee Volunteers in two decades. Not only do they have a chance to knock off the evil empire at Neyland stadium this weekend, but a win would likely catapult them right into the driver's seat of the college football playoff discussion.
Offensively, Tennessee is operating at an insanely high level, as they are ranked second in scoring (46.8), yards per pass (10.8), and first in total yards per game (547) as well as red zone scoring (100%). The Vols are also ranked third in Offensive Drive efficiency, second in Offensive Touchdown Rate, and 19th in Busted Drive Rate.
In short, this offense moves the ball, and they move it effectively.
It all starts with quarterback Hendon Hooker, who comes into this game ranked third in the country with 10.2 yards per pass and 10 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions. Unfortunately, he will have to go up against an Alabama defense that is always a top unit under Nick Saban. Coming into this one, the Tide defense is ranked fifth in scoring, total yards, and points per play, and they are only allowing 3.6 yards per play, which is the lowest in the country. The Crimson Tide are also ranked seventh in Defensive Drive Efficiency, sixth in Defensive Touchdown Rate, and ninth in Defensive First Down Rate.
Basically, this is a battle of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
However, the real story of this game is Bryce Young's health. He missed last game against Texas A&M, and his absence loomed large as the Aggies had a chance to win at the gun. While Jalen Milroe is excitingly athletic, he has struggled to throw the ball downfield against both A&M and Arkansas. If Young is out, look for the Tide to keep the ball on the ground with Milroe's athleticism and an emerging backfield led by Jahmyr Gibbs.
Tennessee's defense is "blah" but they are certainly improved from last season. Even if Young does play, Alabama has played close with every team that is worth a damn on the schedule, and this environment will be the most intense some of these players will ever see. I like the Vols to cover here, but I am not willing to go full nuts on the table with the ML. Just take the points and enjoy the game.
Pick: Tennessee +8.5 (-115)
Penn State (+7) @ Michigan O/U 50.5
The total is surprisingly large to me.
Both teams enter this game with offenses that are ranked high because of their easy OOC schedules, but since Big Ten play began, neither team has shown much of anything.
For reference, Michigan enters this game ranked fifth in scoring (43), fourth in points per play (0.632), 14th in yards per play (6.7), and 12th in yards per pass (9.1). However, since their Maryland game for the Wolverines, they are only putting up 30.6 points per game, and every game has had a moment where you said "oh my god are they actually going to lose?"
Meanwhile, Penn State has been even more inconsistent than Michigan, but we have already seen them go into a hostile environment and come out with a huge victory. Now, that team was Auburn, who kind of sucks, but that is not an easy place to play, with all the weird juju that stadium has.
Anyway, I think we are going to see a lot of great defense as both offenses struggle against the first good defense they see. Despite my concerns for both of these defenses in their first real tests, neither offense is that impressive, and both teams run the ball extremely well.
Pick: Under 50.5 (-1100
Kansas (+9) @ Oklahoma O/U 64.5
Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in a paragraph of silence as Kansas' undefeated season is no more.
Thank you.
Anyway, not only did the Jayhawks fall to TCU last week, but Jalon Daniels went down with a shoulder injury, and it has been reported that he will miss the season, but Daniels took to Twitter to settle down the rumors. As of now, he is week-to-week. Kansas was still moving the ball great with backup Jason Bean who finished the game with 262 yards and four touchdowns in just about a half of work.
Hey, how about Oklahoma? What's their deal?
The Sooners are in a bit of a free fall after getting blanked by Texas at Red River last week 49-0, and the week before that TCU beat them 55-24. After starting the season with so much promise, Oklahoma has lost three straight, and their schedule only gets tougher. They did lose Dillon Gabriel to a concussion against TCU that kept him out of Red River, but the defensive injuries (and lack of defensive talent) are what would really worry me if I were Oklahoma.
If Bean can move the ball as he did against a solid TCu defense, he should have no issues in Norman. I am taking Kansas for the seventh-straight week, and I feel pretty god damn great about it.
Pick: Kansas +9 (-110)
Full Card:
Minnesota (-7) @ Illinois O/U 39.5
The Illini lost starting quarterback Tommy Devito and possibly receiver Isaiah Williams for this week, which means it is going to be a heavy night for Chase Brown. Minnesota is also dealing with injuries as Mohamed Ibrahim is questionable.
This has all the makings of a defensive struggle, and with both teams missing key offensive players, I will take the under here.
Pick: Under 39.5
LSU (+2.5) @ Florida O/U 50.5
The Tigers looked flat last week as Tennesse came into town and wiped LSU out. I get that LSU is always going to be a tough team to play given where they are in the recruiting landscape, but I am not so sure we should be giving this team this much respect at this point.
Jayden Daniels has been mediocre, the skill room has been wildly disappointing, and while the defense is loaded with talent, they have been exposed against good offenses. Florida is not going to light up the scoreboard, but I can see Anthony Richardson having a big night in this spot.
Pick: Florida -2.5
Mississippi St. (-4) @ Kentucky O/U 50.5
The Bulldogs have been great on offense, as expected, but the defense is the real story of their early season success. They are ranked in the top 0 in scoring, yards per pass, takeaways, and red zone scoring percentage.
Going up against a Kentucky offensive line that might be one of the worst in the Power 5 gives Mississippi State such a huge advantage in this one, especially with a banged-up Will Levis in this game. I'll take the Dawgs.
Pick: Miss St. -4 (-115)
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