Ladies and gentlemen, it is once again time to spend our entire Saturday watching and betting on college football.

Hey, congratulations to you if you followed my picks on here last week. I went 5-1, and my record now stands at 31-24-1 for the college football season. This week, not only do we have a lot of great matchups, and every slate has a ton of action, but the board is looking delicious, and I cannot wait to take advantage.

We are now onto day two of five straight days of football, and we are here to give you the best bets for every slate. Anyway, let's get straight into the picks. If you decide to follow our best bets, we ask that you do so responsibly. 

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Best Bets:

 

Iowa State (-3) @ Kansas O/U 58.5

 

The Kansas Jayhawks have finally made it into my 'best bets' section, and god damn do they deserve it. I jumped on Kansas earlier in the summer with the over on their win total (2.5) and have bet them in every game this season.

Until they prove to me that they are not worthy of a bet, I am going to keep betting on them. The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 17.5 points, and their two road wins against Houston and West Virginia, and last week's win over an undefeated Duke team proves that this is not just a fluke, this team can play some ball.

While the defense still would worry me if I were Lance Leipold, the offense led by early Heisman candidate quarterback Jalon Daniels is as good as any in the country. They are tied with Ohio State with 27 total touchdowns scored, the most in the country, and they are ranked inside the top 10 in scoring (46), points per play (0.715), and third down conversion percentage (65%).

 

 

Meanwhile, Iowa State is also undefeated on the season, but they are ranked outside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive success rate, and although the defense is only allowing 16 points per game and 4.0 yards per play, this is far and away the best offense they have seen so far this season.

The Cyclones have won seven straight against the Jayhawks, but obviously, this is a different Kansas program, and I absolutely will take Kansas and the points as a home dog in this spot.

Pick: Kansas +3

 

Kentucky (+6.5) @ Ole Miss O/U 54.5.

 

This is a trap, so bet with caution.

Kentucky is the better team on paper, they are the higher ranked team (although the AP is worthless), and they have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Will Levis. Ole Miss is also pretty damn good with their massive transfer class making a huge impact, but I do not quite know if playing at home is enough for the Rebs to be giving 6.5 points to Kentucky here.

I guess Kentucky struggling with Northern Illinois last week has made the oddsmakers nervous, but Ole Miss has not been tested so far, and we have seen teams struggle against their first "real game' this season. Do not get me wrong, I love this Ole Miss team, but I am not so sure I love them at this number in this spot.

However, the Rebs are 10th in explosive play rate, and while the passing game has not really materialized under Jaxson Dart or Luke Altmyer, they are ranked fifth in rushes per game (52.3), second in rushing yards per game (296.7) and they are picking up just under 6.0 yards per rush. That is going to be tough for a Kentucky defense that has struggled to stop the run.

 

 

Because Kentucky's offense struggles to move the ball, Ole Miss sounds like the play, but I think the under is much more in play here. Surprisingly for a Lane Kiffin-led offense, the total has gone under the number in 11 of the last 12 games for Ole Miss, and 15 of the last 20 road games for the Wildcats.

Pick: Under 54.5

 

NC State (+6.5) @ Clemson O/U 44.5

 

It is going to be windy and wet at kickoff, which will greatly impact passes and kicks for this game, which gives the public an advantage.

First of all, I have to give props to Clemson for beating Wake Forest last week. Not only did they beat a really good team, but they proved that they can survive a shootout, which was my biggest concern for the Tigers coming into the season.

Now, I am still not a believer in D.J. Uiagalelei and this offense, but the improvement from this unit has been stark. He is completing 64.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt with 10 touchdown passes to only one interception. Those are still not the numbers that many expected when Uiagalelei lit up the Notre Dame defense in 2020, but he has certainly bought himself some time as Cade Klubnik breathes down his neck.

As a unit, Clemson's offense is ranked sixth in scoring (46.7), 14th in points per play (0.574), and they are picking up 486 yards per game. The problem is they are not overly explosive, and the defense, which was supposed to be one of the best in the country, and possibly better than the 2018 unit, has been ordinary as hell. They are ranked 57th in scoring, 61st in points per play, and 39th in yards per play.

 

 

The front seven is only allowing 2.3 yards per rush and 67.7 rushing yards per game, but the secondary is allowing 7.5 yards per pass, and quarterbacks are completing 62% of their passes against Clemson.

NC State has yet to establish any sort of consistency on offense this season, but I still really like this unit led by Devin Leary, and they are ranked inside the top-40 in line yards and pass success rate. Defensively, they have been as good as any in the country, as they are only allowing 14.7 points and less than 300 total yards per game.

With the poor weather conditions brought on by Hurricane Ian, we can expect an offensive struggle, and for this game to go comfortably under the total. This may be an ugly 10-3 game much like when a Hurricane interrupted NC State's game against Notre Dame back in 2016.

Neither offense is great, both defenses have elite ceilings, and the total has gone under in four of the last six for the Tigers.

Pick: Under 44.5

 

Best Of The Rest:

 

Navy (+13.5) @ Air Force O/U 37.5

This is strictly a service academy under play here. The total has gone under the number in 41 of the last 51 games between service academies since 2005.

I don't think we need to go too deep into this one. Air Force runs the ball 60 times per game (second in the country), and they are dead last with only 7.3 passing attempts per game. On the other side, Navy runs the ball 62 times, which is the most in the country, and they are only throwing the ball 11 times per game.

Don't think here, just bet.

Pick: Under 37.5

 

Georgia (-28.5) @ Missouri O/U 54.5

 

Here's the deal, Georgia slept walked last week against Kent State, and now people are starting to freak out. They lost a few first-place votes in the *redacted* poll, and we were all forced to watch sports talk television discuss why this is a sign that Georgia is not for real this season.

Y'all listen to me, and y'all listen good; the Dawgs are still the best team in the country, and they are getting a team that honestly might be worse than Kent State this week in Missouri. It took a comedy of errors for Missouri to lose at Auburn last week, and despite it being a home game, they will take on a pissed-off Georgia team that is looking to remind everyone that they are indeed the best in the country.

I also think Missouri may be one of the worst teams in the FBS, so this one may get messy, especially since the Dawgs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. I will personally be buying 0.5 points to make it a clean -28, but I would be comfortable taking Georgia at this number. 

Pick: Georgia -28.5

 

Oklahoma State (+2.5) @ Baylor O/U 55.5

 

I still cannot get a good read on Baylor, but statistically, they are one of the more well-rounded teams in the Power-5. They are putting up 31 points per game and picking up 5.3 yards per play. Defensively, they are only allowing 19 points per game, and their front seven is one of the best in the country, as they are ranked sixth in yards per rush (2.5) and seventh in rushing yards per game (77).

However, the secondary has not been that great, and in their two biggest games of the season, Iowa State was able to actually show signs of life passing the ball, and BYU was able to move the ball effectively through the air against them.

That does not play well for an Oklahoma State offense that passes the ball very effectively. It also does not help that Baylor is only converting on 39.1% of their drives, which will give the Cowboy's offense more opportunities to rip off big plays against this weak Baylor secondary.

The Bears have won nine-straight home games, and six of the last nine against Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys are 12-2-1 ATS over their last 14, and they are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games played in October.

Give me the Pokes.

Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5

 

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