Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls of (legal gambling) ages, welcome back to another college football Saturday.
After a disastrous Week 1, I rebounded nicely last weekend, going 7-3-1, and I have to say, even though I am feeling good right now, the Week 3 board is dangerous, folks.
There are a ton of rat lines out there, so bet with caution. This is the last weekend before conference play gets going, and I think I'm already starting to get a good idea of which teams are good or not.
Spoiler alert, every team other than Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama is terrible.
Anyway, let's get straight into the picks. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Best Bets:
Penn State (-3.5) @ Auburn O/U 47.5
This is one of many games this week that smells like a rat, but I love Penn State in this spot.
Auburn is running with TJ Finley as their starter, which is undoubtedly a choice but based on the roster, they do not have many other options. Finley has only one touchdown to three interceptions through the first two games.
You may be telling yourself that Auburn has only played two games, and there is plenty of time to turn this ship around. However, their two games have come against Mercer and San Jose State, and they certainly did not look good in those games.
Through their first two games, Auburn is only putting up 24 points per game, and their passing attack is ranked 54th in yards per pass (7.3), 64th in completion percentage (61%), 102nd in passing yards per game (168.0), and 127th in int thrown % (8.7%).
The defense has been fine, but they also have not given me much confidence that they will be able to stop or slow down a power five program. Although I do not love Sean Clifford for Penn State, you have to imagine James Franklin will have a quick hook, or at least run with two quarterbacks as true freshman Drew Allar has lived up to his expectations in his short playing time.
Penn State was lucky to beat Purdue on the road, but the offense is moving the ball well since that game-winning drive in West Lafayette, and their defense has been great against the run, which means Auburn is going to have to rely on the passing game, and as we can see, that is trouble.
The Nittany Lions are 13-6 ATS over their last 19 games, and they have won nine-straight games in September. I understand why Penn State is a short favorite in this spot, but I truly do not see any redeeming qualities out of Auburn.
Pick: Penn State -3.5 (+100)
BYU (+3.5) @ Oregon O/U 58.5
Again, this line smells like a rat.
BYU was one of my favorite teams coming into the season, and they have lived up to my self-imposed hype. First of all, a 10-win team is returning the second-most production in the country, including all of their offensive line, which was one of the best units in college football. Secondly, they were able to replace Zach Wilson with an even better version of Zach Wilson in Jaren Hall.
Hall is the perfect college quarterback. He is mobile, he completes passes at a 65% clip, and he does not turn the ball over. The Cougars crushed a clearly inferior USF team in Week 1, then they were able to take down a top-10 team in Baylor. They have the dominance, the horses, and the signature win, so why in the hell are they a dog in this game?
Well, Oregon was able to rebound nicely after being thrashed by Georgia in Week 1, and the Ducks have won 20-straight home games. So, I guess I understand why Oregon is giving points in this one, but Bo Nix and this offense looked DREADFUL against a good defense, and it does not get that much easier with this unit they will go against.
The Cougars are returning the most production on the defensive side of the ball, and through the first two games, they are only allowing 4.2 yards per play, and their secondary has shut down both USF and Baylor, allowing only 154.5 yards per game, and 5.3 yards per pass.
The home-field advantage is real for the Ducks, but we saw this team look clueless against a good team, and it is time for us to start giving the Cougs some respect. If you are feeling frisky, I would take a look at the ML, but I would rather lay the points, especially since we have the hook on our side.
Pick: BYU +3.5 (-112)
Michigan State (+3.5) @ Washington O/U 56.5
I am once again here to tell you that his game smells like a rat, but I simply do not care.
After losing Kenneth Walker III to the draft, many expected the Spartans to regress from their 10-win season, but their rushing attack has looked pretty solid after the first two games. Michigan State is putting up 228.5 rushing yards per game, and their dual-backfield of Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard have combined for six touchdowns, and both are ripping off yards at an impressive clip.
The problem is that Payton Thorne is only completing 58% of his passes, and he has three interceptions against two weak opponents. Michigan State's defense has also been a problem, as they were last season. Their numbers look much better, but again, their first two games were against MAC teams, and the Spartans are dealing with some injuries in the secondary.
On the other side, the Huskies came into the season expecting their defense to lead this team, but the offense led by Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr has been one of the best units in the country. They are ranked 7th in YPG (525), 12th in scoring (45.0), and they are picking up just under nine yards per pass, which is going to be a major problem for this Spartans' secondary.
Just watching this team against Western Michigan to open the season, you can tell the defense has some problems, and going up against a mobile quarterback who has piled up the stats against Michigan State when he was in the Big Ten, I have to take Washington and the points here.
The over is also worth a look, but it is going to be completely reliant on who controls the pace, as the Spartans like to pound the rock and keep the opposing offense off the field.
Pick: Washington -3.5 (-114)
Best Of The Rest:
Miami (+6.5) @ Texas A&M O/U 44.5 (-110)
The Aggies giving 6.5 after losing to Appalachian State at home is certainly interesting, but let's not be fooled, that defense is still nasty. Jimbo Fisher also announced that LSU transfer Max Johnson will get the start this week in hopes of sparking a dead offense.
On the other side, Miami looked all out of whack against Southern Miss last week, but they have the best quarterback in this game with Tyler Van Dyke, and I like the talent advantage that Miami has.
Pick: Miami +6.5 (-110)
Kansas (+9.5) @ Houston O/U 58.5
I hope yall were paying attention to me when I was screaming all summer that Kansas was going to be frisky.
Well, they are 2-0, and they knocked off West Virginia in Morgantown last week, and there are a lot of interesting parts around this team. Their offense is the top scoring offense in the nation (55 PPG), and they have the most explosive offense in the country, with 0.86 points per play, and a 17.5% explosive play rate.
On the other side, Houston has gone to overtime twice this season, beating a bad UTSA team in Week 1, then losing to Texas Tech in Lubbock last weekend.
Now, Kansas is not a team that can just beat everyone as they are still a year away from being a year away, but I will lay the 9.5 here.
Pick: Kansas +9.5 (-110)
Fresno State (+10.5) @ USC O/U 74.5
I have not picked a total yet, so naturally, I am taking the over on this highest total of the day.
Coming into the season, I was not as high on USC as I am now because I thought it would take a few games to break in this offense, but oh my god, they are so sick. The Trojans are putting up 53.5 PPG, 521.5 YPG, 0.86 points per play, and 8.3 yards per play, all of which are ranked inside the top 10 in the country.
Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison are quickly proving to be the best combo in the country, as Addison is averaging 18.8 yards per reception, and he already has four touchdown receptions, with an average yards per touchdown reception of 26.25.
However, the defense has some problems as Stanford was able to move the ball effectively against USC, but they shot themselves in the foot inside the Red Zone, turning the ball over three times. That is what scares me from taking USC ATS as Fresno State is putting up 32 PPG and just under 500 YPG.
It is a ton of points, but both of these defenses are bad, and both offenses have been moving the ball at an impressive clip.
Pick: Over 74.5 (-110)
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