Welcome back to the gambling corner.

It is hard to believe that we are already at Week 11. Just yesterday, I was wrapping up my research for preseason win-totals, and now, we are at the point where there are only like 3-4 good teams, which is actually the real start of the college football season. Once you can conclude that only three teams can win it all this year (usually a combination of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and (insert other SEC team here)), the college football season officially begins.

Anyway, I went 6-4 last week, and like magic, the college basketball season has brought me some good mojo, as I am 21-9 in my previous 30. Keep an eye out for my daily college basketball picks and my unders system, which has two years of documented profitability, dropping next week.

Anyway, enough about all that, let's talk some ball. If you decide to follow our best bets, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Best Bets:

LSU (-3) @ Arkansas O/U 62

A younger, more immature version of myself would have been all over Arkansas here. LSU cannot get any higher than they are right now, coming off their first victory over Alabama in Death Valley since 2010, and Arkansas cannot be any lower after losing to Liberty at home last week.

This is the perfect letdown spot for Brian Kelly and the Tigers, but I have decided not to fall for it this time.

Arkansas also has yet to determine who will be taking the snaps this week, as K.J. Jefferson is banged-up, and their defense has been pretty awful all season. Over their last five games, all of which are against bad teams besides Alabama, this defense allows 34.4 points per game. For the entire season, the Hogs' defense is ranked 98th in Scoring, 115th in Yards Per Play, 121st in 3D Conversion Rate and Yards Per Pass, and they have gotten gashed on the ground all season, which might be killer in this game as LSU's offensive line has formed into one of the top units in the country.

If Jefferson does play for Arkansas, they have a shot at making this game ugly, as LSU is prone to allowing explosive plays, and the Hogs' have one of the best offensive lines in the SEC and possibly the country. However, I trust this LSU defense no matter who plays for Arkansas, and this offense, while inconsistent, does not allow a lot of pressures and they are the top-ranked team in Offensive Stuff Rate, meaning every time they put the ball on the ground, they are picking up positive yardage.

Jayden Daniels is HIM

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/XMgP9Sryiw
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 6, 2022

Arkansas will also have to deal with an improving Jayden Daniels, who is completing 73% of his passes for 11 total touchdowns over the last few weeks (against Ole Miss and Alabama), and he only has one interception to 34 total touchdowns on the season. This game might be ugly, but LSU will eventually choke the life out of this team and come out with a two-score victory.

Pick: LSU -3

Washington (+13) @ Oregon O/U 72.5

I respect both of these offenses very much, especially what Bo Nix has been able to do with the Ducks since the nuclear-ass kicking they received against Georgia in Week 1 (God, remember Week 1?). I also have a high level of disrespect towards both of these defenses, which usually would lead me to take the over, no matter the number, but I spy an exciting team total.

Over their last four games, the Ducks are giving up 21.5 Points Per Game, but three of those games came against Cal, Colorado, Arizona, and then their big win against UCLA. If we dig a little deeper, however, we can find some serious flaws with this Oregon defense. They are weak in the secondary as they give up 7.5 Yards Per Pass and allow teams to complete 66% of their passes. They also rank 96th in EPA and 110th in Passing Success, so I would expect Michael Penix Jr. and this Huskies offense to let it fly in Eugene.

Now, Washington's defense also stinks, and they are going up against the No. 1 ranked team in Passing Success and Rushing Success, but again, I do not like the over, and Oregon's team total of 43.5 is too risky. The fact that I can get the Huskies TT at 29.5 makes me excited. Washington's offense ranks 13th in Scoring (36.9), 19th in Points Per Play (0.476), 25th in Yards Per Play (6.2), and 35th in Yards Per Pass (8.0).

WASHINGTON! Michael Penix Jr to Jack Westover for the 24 yard TD! #Huskies pic.twitter.com/AyvmjZcOdP
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) November 5, 2022

The Huskies are also the fifth-best team in the country at converting on third downs, while Oregon's defense ranks 125th in 3D Conversion Rate. If you can find the Huskies TT below 31 points, I would jump on the over quickly. Washington has only gone under this number twice on the season, and it was over the last two games, one of which was played when there was a goddamn river in the sky (sort of).

Pick: Washington TT o 29.5

Kansas State (+2.5) @ Baylor O/U 52.5

I mentioned this last week when I bet on the over for Kansas State v Texas, but the Wildcats need to switch to Will Howard at quarterback. But also, as I said, you cannot completely take out Adrian Martinez's athletic ability. Martinez has 10 rushing touchdowns and is averaging a career-high 5.8 yards per carry, but he has been wildly ineffective with his arm as he is only averaging 7.0 yards per Pass, and he is only completing 63.1% of his passes.

Meanwhile, Howard has already matched Martinez's passing touchdowns mark on the season with six, and he is averaging 9.1 yards per Pass. If they can figure out a way to use both quarterbacks but stick with Howard as the starter, this team can be very dangerous down the stretch. Even if they did hand the keys to Howard, this offense is predicated on the run.

While Kansas State's offense only ranks 78th in Rush Success, they are also 29th in Offensive Havoc, 49th in Line yards, and 18th in Finishing Drives. They are also picking up 5.3 Yards Per Rush, and Deuce Vaughn is once again proving why he is the most dynamic back in college football, as he has seven total touchdowns on 5.6 Yards Per Rush and 7.2 Yards Per Catch.

deuce vaughn. ridiculous. #KStateFB pic.twitter.com/nnEckT2dqq
— Ray G 🏁 (@RayGQue) September 29, 2022

That said, however, they will have a tough ask against a Baylor defense that ranks 28th in Rush Success, and they are only allowing 3.8 Yards Per Rush. Luckily for the Wildcats, this Baylor defense is 74th in Finishing Drives, and it is not like we haven't seen this defense get crushed against worse teams. Kansas State will need to generate some pressure as Blake Shapen is one of the best pocket passers in the country, but the Wildcats' defense is ranked 32nd in Pass Success, and they are 19th in Finishing Drives.

The Wildcats have only won in Waco once in their last seven trips, but I like Kansas State's ability to run the ball and play great defense.

Pick: Kansas State +2.5

Best Of The Rest:

Indiana (+40.5) @ Ohio State O/U 58.5

The Buckeyes need to wake up after some poor performances on offense the last few weeks, and luckily they have the Hoosiers coming into town this week. Indiana's defense ranks 124th in Pass Success, 123rd in Pass Rush, 75th in Finishing Drives, and according to PFF, they are 121st in Pass Coverage.

This is a get-right spot for Ohio State, and I expect them to rack up the points, but betting on them to win by six touchdowns is just too risky. Instead, I will take their team total as C.J. Stroud, and the rest of this lethal offense reintroduces themselves as one of the top units in the country.

Edit: They are now predicting some pretty nasty weather in Columbus for the game, but not too much to where I am going to back out. Bet at your own will, but I am not backing out.

I also want my beloved Buckeyes to figure it the hell out on offense, so this is my way of getting involved and trying to physically will this offense into greatness. It's what any proud alumnus would do.

Pick: Ohio State TT o 49.5

Oklahoma (-8.5) @ West Virginia O/U 68.5

This is the perfect game to take a Big 12 over and not think twice about it. Both defenses struggle against the Pass as the Sooners rank 92nd in Pass Success, 114th in Pass Rush, and 109th in Finishing Drives, while the Neers' are 102nd in Pass Success, 101st in Pass Rush, and 102nd in Finishing Drives. Both teams are ranked in the top 50 in Pass Success and Finishing Drives.

I genuinely do not need to see anything else about this game; give me the over.

Pick: Over 68.5

North Carolina (+4.5) @ Wake Forest O/U 76.5

I wish I had the balls to take the over at this number, but alas, I am a coward.

Anyway, everything is screaming for you to take Wake Forest at home as not only do they have one of the best passing attacks in the country led by Sam Hartman, but their defense grades pretty well as they are ranked 48th in Rush Success, 60th in Pass Success, and 33rd in Finishing Drives. However, Wake Forest has 16 turnovers on the season, and they are going up against a North Carolina offense led by probably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, and since the Notre Dame loss, the heels have caught fire.

Even though their defense is horrid, I like North Carolina getting 4.5 points here. The Demon Deacons are still lethal on offense, but Hartman has been a little erratic lately, and North Carolina is getting tremendous quarterback play.

Pick: North Carolina +4.5

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