It is officially Week 1 of the college football season, which means we are getting closer to football almost daily. 

While everyone is gearing up for the massive matchups taking place this Saturday, we have ourselves a great Thursday night slate. Not only am I going to watch football until I puke, but we have the rebirth of a rivalry and a very interesting conference matchup. 

I had a terrible Week 0, going 2-5, with my only win coming off Illinois -13.5, and their TT O28. I only mention that so I can tell you now, go grab Tulsa at whatever number it is at against Wyoming. The Cowboys were comically outmatched against the Illini, and I am not convinced they would win more than three games at the D2 level. 

Anyway, enough about that, let's get into the best bets for Thursday's slate of games. We only have two plays for you, but I am loving the way the Week 1 board is looking. If you do decide to follow our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly. 

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

West Virginia vs. Pitt

When doing my research for this game, I came to one conclusion. Pitt is simply just a much better team than West Virginia. But why am I having such a hard time laying the points with Pitt?

The quarterbacks are a wash, but other than that, Pitt is better at every position group. The Panthers are returning all five starting linemen from last season, and their top eight big guys all have multiple games of starting experience. While Pitt lost so much talent on the field, they are deep and have one of the better front-sevens in the ACC, but I want there to be no mistakes, they're not on the same level as Clemson.

Despite Pitt's returning production on defense, this unit ranked 119th in passing yards per game, 75th in yards per pass, and 61st in opponents' completion percentage, and their best players in the secondary from 2021 are gone. Usually, that would not be a problem with this West Virginia offense, but the Mountaineers will be running the Air Raid this season, which does not play well for an average Pitt secondary.

Outside of Dante Stills on the defensive line, West Virginia's defense is a little unknown after losing seven starters, but Pitt is also changing up their offense this season, and returning to a more traditional Pat Narduzzi style of offense. With their talent on the offensive line and three running backs that totaled 500+ yards returning from last season, expect the Panthers to run the hell out of the ball.

The true question about this Pitt team is if they can efficiently run the football. While they have the depth both up front, and in their running backroom, the Panthers' offensive line was ranked 63rd in run push, and their running backs were ranked 84th in yards per carry.

It's a rivalry game, there is a history between both Kedon Slovis and JT Daniels, and I love that I am getting 7.5 points with a team that runs the Air Raid. West Virginia's top five receivers transferred out of the program, but you can survive with average pass-catchers when running this style of offense. All you need is some guys to catch the damn football, because they are going to pass, and they are going to do it a lot.

As I said earlier, Pitt is certainly the better team, but I LOVE West Virginia at this number.

Pick: West Virginia +7.5 (-110)

Penn State vs. Purdue

I love this matchup.

This is not a big game, but it has the perfect level of intrigue for the Thursday before the first true college football Saturday.

Penn State is coming off a disappointing 2021, but they are one of those programs that are never more than three years away from being a 10+ win team. On the other side, Purdue is coming off a great 2021 for their standards, and they are hosting one of the conference's top programs on primetime. As an Ohio State fan, I know that Purdue is a tough team to beat in West Lafayette, especially in this type of environment.

If you are one of the haters and losers (of which there are many) who tell me that the environment of a college football game does not play a big factor, I advise you to attend a primetime game for a big-time school. I promise you will never feel anything like it in your life.

Anyway, Penn State is once again running it back with Sean Clifford at quarterback, and while he may not be the type of player to make Penn State a contender, he is perfectly fine for a team that has a lot of talent. Clifford did set career high's in completion percentage (61%), passing yards (3107), completions (261), and he attempted 438 throws, which is 109 more than his previous career high.

Simply put, the Nittany Lions relied too much on his athleticism to carry them, and it just simply did not work out. The problem now is that they lost a first-round receiver, the running back room is talented but unproven, and the offensive line, which was awful last season, lost two All-Big Ten players.

As I said, Penn State's running back room is very exciting on paper, but there is not a lot of experience, especially with Noah Cain transferring to LSU.  James Franklin will roll this season with Keyvone Lee as his starter, but he has two of the best running back recruits, including the top running back from the 2022 class, Nick Singleton.

Purdue turned towards a very unusual three-defensive coordinator staff last season and it worked wonders for them. The Boilermakers improved in most defensive metrics, and they held teams to only 22.4 points per game, which is pretty incredible considering how this program was heading defensively.

Their front seven is going to have to replace George Karlaftis, but the defensive line is deep and experienced, and George's brother, Yanni Karlaftis is getting a lot of praise during camp, so problem solved.

Offensively, Aidan O'Connell is back to run the show for Purdue, and he did an exceptional job last season. He finished with a 71.8% completion percentage, which is a school record, and he also added 28 passing touchdowns and 3,708 yards. They do have to replace top receivers David Bell, Milton Wright, and Jackson Anthrop, but Broc Thompson's 200-yard performance against Tennessee in the bowl game gives them some hope, and they snagged a few players out of the portal. 

The running back room is not great, but Purdue passed the ball on 59% of their plays, which was only behind Mississippi State and the Godfather of the Air Raid, Mike Leach, so do not expect much out of them. Purdue is also returning three starters upfront, and although they were ranked 124th in run push last season, they were one of the best units in pass protection.

With a blitz-heavy defense, and a solid defensive line, Purdue is going to cause some pressure, and force Clifford to make some plays. I have watched Clifford be the quarterback at Penn State for 20 years now, and I can tell you, he is one of those quarterbacks that is either going to be the reason you win or the reason that you lose. 

Penn State's running game is also a massive question mark, especially with how poor they are generating a push at the line of scrimmage. The pass protection is not much better, and the only decent lineman they had are gone now.

This game is going to come down to which offense effectively moves the ball through the air more, and although Penn State's defensive secondary is interesting, I like Purdue as the home dog in this one. I may sprinkle the money line, but I would rather take the points with Purdue as my best bet for this game.

Pick: Purdue +3.5 (-110)

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