Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/6/2025 1:10 PM EDT

We have your Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Cleveland Guardians hit the road to face the New York Mets.

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets -165 (Caesars) / Cleveland Guardians +154 (FanDuel)
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets -1.0 (-124) (BetRivers)
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-105) (ESPN BET) / Under 7.5 (-105) (Caesars)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-06
Time: 1:10 PM EDT
Location: Citi Field, New York
TV: CLEG

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Preview

This Wednesday afternoon matchup at Citi Field features two teams heading in opposite directions since early July. The Cleveland Guardians, currently 58-55 and second in the AL Central, have been one of baseball's hottest teams, boasting an impressive 18-8 record since July 6th. This surge has brought them within 1.5 games of an American League Wild Card spot. Their recent success is attributed to dominant pitching and timely hitting, as evidenced by their narrow 3-2 victory over the Mets yesterday, where their bullpen retired the final 14 Mets batters in order. Right-hander Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33 ERA) will take the mound for the Guardians, looking to continue their momentum.

On the other side, the New York Mets (63-51, second in their division) are in a frustrating free-fall, having lost their last three games and seven of their last eight. Since June 12th, the Mets hold an 18-26 record, falling 2.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Despite their recent struggles, the Mets possess a strong lineup featuring power hitters like Pete Alonso (25 home runs) and Juan Soto, contributing to their .319 on-base percentage, which ranks 8th in the league. Left-hander David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA) will start for the Mets. Peterson has been a model of consistency, allowing just two runs over six innings in his last start and remaining unbeaten in 11 home starts this season with a stellar 2.00 ERA.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets have a recent history that shows a shift in momentum. In their most recent encounters, the Guardians have had the upper hand, winning the last two games of this series. On August 5, 2025, Cleveland secured a 3-2 victory, despite the Mets being -165 favorites. The day before, on August 4, 2025, the Guardians also won a higher-scoring affair, 7-6, with the Mets again entering as -210 favorites. Looking back to 2024, the Guardians swept a two-game set in May, winning 6-3 and 7-6. However, prior to that, the Mets had a string of victories in 2023 and 2019, including a 2-1 win on May 21, 2023, and a 4-3 victory on August 21, 2019. The recent trend clearly favors the Guardians, who are looking to complete a rare road sweep at Citi Field.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

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Despite their recent slump, the New York Mets are poised to avoid a sweep at home. The primary reason for this pick lies with starting pitcher David Peterson. Peterson has been exceptional at Citi Field this season, holding an unbeaten record in 11 home starts with a remarkable 2.00 ERA. This home dominance is a significant advantage, especially considering the Cleveland Guardians' struggles against left-handed pitching, where they hold a 14-20 record this season compared to their much stronger 44-35 record against right-handers. The Mets are favored on the moneyline at -165, and sharp betting insights show a 62.05% home sharp win percentage for New York. Our computer prediction also projects a 5-3 Mets victory, aligning with the expectation that Peterson's strong performance will lead them to a much-needed win.

Top Player Prop Picks

Brayan Rocchio (Cleveland Guardians) - Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 0.5

Brayan Rocchio has been a consistent contributor for the Guardians, making the over on his Hits + Runs + RBIs prop a compelling play. He has hit the over in 100% of his last 10 games, averaging 2.2 H+R+RBI during that span. His season average stands at 1.29, well above the 0.5 line. Furthermore, in his two matchups against the New York Mets in 2025, Rocchio has hit the over 100% of the time, averaging 1.5 H+R+RBI. This strong recent form, combined with his success against this specific opponent, makes the Over 0.5 at -175 odds on DraftKings a confident pick.

Mark Vientos (New York Mets) - Bases Over 0.5

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Mark Vientos has demonstrated strong hitting form recently, making the Over 0.5 Bases prop an attractive option. He has hit the over on this prop in an impressive 90% of his last 10 games, averaging 1.8 bases. Over his last 20 games, he's hit the over 80% of the time, with a mean of 1.6 bases. His season average is 1.32 bases, comfortably exceeding the 0.5 line. Vientos also showed his offensive potential in the last game against the Guardians with a double. Playing at home, where he hits the over 65% of the time this season, further supports taking the Over 0.5 Bases at -170 odds on Caesars.

Steven Kwan (Cleveland Guardians) - Hits Over 0.5

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Steven Kwan has been a reliable leadoff hitter for the Cleveland Guardians, and his Hits prop at Over 0.5 is a strong consideration. Kwan has hit the over on this prop in 80% of his last 10 games, averaging 1.2 hits. His season average is 1.11 hits, consistently above the 0.5 line. Notably, in his two appearances against the New York Mets in 2025, Kwan has hit the over 100% of the time, averaging 2.0 hits per game. His performance as a visitor this season, hitting the over 75% of the time, reinforces the confidence in this pick. You can find the Over 0.5 Hits for Kwan at -225 odds on ESPN BET.

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