Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/5/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Cleveland Guardians hit the road to face the New York Mets.

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets -160 [Caesars] / Cleveland Guardians +140 [ESPN BET]
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets -1.0 (-120) [DraftKings] / Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-131) [ESPN BET]
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-110) [ESPN BET] / Under 8.5 (-105) [Caesars]

Game Info

Date: Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
TV: SNY

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets Preview

The Cleveland Guardians (57-55) travel to Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (63-50) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Guardians enter this game as one of the hottest teams in baseball, boasting an impressive 8-2 record over their last ten games and a remarkable 17-7 run since July 7th. This surge has propelled them back into contention despite facing significant adversity, including key players being out due to MLB gambling investigations and a trade of their former Cy Young winner. Their resilience was on full display in their narrow 7-6 extra-inning victory over the Mets on Monday.

On the other side, the New York Mets are navigating a challenging mid-season slump, with a 4-6 record in their last ten outings and having lost their last two games, including Monday's contest against Cleveland. Despite their recent struggles, the Mets' offense shows potential, ranking 9th in home runs with 139 and 6th in walks with 390, indicating both power and patience at the plate. All eyes will be on slugging first baseman Pete Alonso, who is on the verge of becoming the franchise’s all-time home run king, needing just one more to tie Darryl Strawberry's record.

The pitching matchup features Logan Allen (7-9, 4.06 ERA) for the Cleveland Guardians and Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45 ERA) for the New York Mets. While Holmes has a solid season ERA, he has shown signs of struggle recently, posting a 4.91 ERA in six July starts, during which the Mets went 2-4 in his appearances. This inconsistency on the mound for New York, coupled with Cleveland's red-hot form, sets the stage for a compelling game.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians hold a 1-0 record against the New York Mets in the 2025 season, having secured a 7-6 extra-inning victory in their most recent encounter on Monday. In that game, the Guardians also covered the run line. Pete Alonso of the Mets made headlines in that contest, hitting his 251st career home run, bringing him within one of tying Darryl Strawberry for the Mets' all-time franchise record.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+140)

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Despite being the underdog, the Cleveland Guardians present a compelling case for a moneyline pick in this matchup. They are currently one of the hottest teams in baseball, demonstrating remarkable resilience and consistent performance with an 8-2 record over their last ten games. The New York Mets, conversely, are in a slump, losing their last two games and holding a 4-6 record in their recent outings. Furthermore, Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes has shown signs of struggle, recording a 4.91 ERA in July and contributing to a 3-6 record for the Mets in his last nine starts. The Guardians' recent 7-6 victory over the Mets further underscores their ability to compete and win against this opponent. Given the contrasting forms of the two teams and the Mets' struggles with their starting pitching, backing the Guardians at +140 offers significant value.

Top Player Prop Picks

José Ramírez to Record an RBI (+175)

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José Ramírez has been a consistent offensive force for the Cleveland Guardians and is currently in red-hot form. Entering yesterday's series opener, Ramírez was batting .353 with four home runs, nine RBIs, and 14 runs scored in his last 13 games. Over his prior 23 games, he boasted an impressive 1.147 OPS, scoring 27 runs and driving in 22. While his hitting splits are slightly lower against right-handed pitchers, his ability to drive in runs remains consistent, with 28 of his 61 RBIs coming on the road. Given his current performance and role as the focal point of the Guardians' offense, Ramírez is well-positioned to drive in a run against Clay Holmes and the Mets. The best odds for this prop are +175 at DraftKings.

David Fry Over 0.5 Total Bases (-)

David Fry has shown strong historical performance in limited plate appearances against Mets pitcher Clay Holmes. In two career plate appearances against Holmes, Fry has recorded one hit, which was a home run, resulting in a 2.000 slugging percentage and an impressive 1.025 wOBA. His expected slugging (xSLG) against Holmes is an even higher 1.640. While this is a small sample size, it indicates a favorable matchup for Fry. Given his past success against Holmes, Fry is a strong candidate to record at least one total base in this game.

Juan Soto Over 0.5 Total Bases (-)

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Juan Soto, now with the New York Mets, has demonstrated excellent plate discipline and hitting ability against Guardians pitcher Logan Allen. In five career plate appearances against Allen, Soto has recorded two hits and drawn two walks, resulting in a .667 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage. His wOBA against Allen stands at an impressive 0.631, with an xSLG of 0.730. These numbers suggest that Soto sees Allen well and is likely to get on base and contribute to the Mets' offense. Expect Soto to be a factor at the plate and accumulate at least one total base in this contest.

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