Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/20/2025 3:40 PM EDT

We have your Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Cleveland Guardians hit the road to face the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks -115 (ESPN BET) / Cleveland Guardians +100 (Caesars)
Best Spread Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-205) / Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-190)
Best Total Odds: Over 9.0 (-118) / Under 9.5 (-121)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-20
Time: 3:40 PM EDT
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
TV: ARID channel

Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Cleveland Guardians (64-61) travel to Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (61-66) in what promises to be a compelling matchup. The Guardians enter this game with a 33-30 road record and are looking to rebound after a 6-5 loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Cleveland has shown solid form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 games overall, but their offense has struggled in their last five outings, averaging just 2.6 runs per game while their pitchers have allowed 5.6 runs per contest.

The Diamondbacks, despite their slightly worse overall record, have been displaying solid form at home and in recent head-to-head contests. They secured a 6-5 victory over the Guardians on Tuesday and have won 5 of their last 10 games across all competitions. Arizona's offense has been more productive recently, averaging 5.4 runs per game in August and 5.8 runs over their last 10 games. Their top three hitters, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and Corbin Carroll, have been particularly hot, batting .323 with 6 doubles, 3 triples, and 4 home runs over their last eight games.

On the mound, the Guardians will hand the ball to rookie Parker Messick for his major league debut. Messick, a 24-year-old left-hander, posted a 3.47 ERA and 119 strikeouts in Triple-A this season, with an impressive 0.88 WHIP over his last five Triple-A starts. His low-80s changeup has been effective in fooling hitters. For the Diamondbacks, Brandon Pfaadt (12-8, 5.08 ERA) will get the start. Pfaadt leads Arizona in wins but has allowed the fourth-most hits in the league (151) and has a home run rate of 1.5 HR/9. He previously faced the Guardians on August 7th, securing a win after pitching 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball.

Chase Field, the venue for this game, has a park factor of 103, indicating it's slightly hitter-friendly overall. However, it significantly suppresses home runs with a factor of 89, which could impact power hitters. The afternoon start time in Phoenix means temperatures will be at their peak, which can sometimes lead to the ball carrying better, even with the retractable roof.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

In the past 10 head-to-head games between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cleveland Guardians, the Diamondbacks hold a 6-4 advantage. The most recent game, played on August 20, 2025, saw the Arizona Diamondbacks secure a 6-5 victory. Prior to that, the Cleveland Guardians had won on August 19, 2025, indicating that both teams are capable of securing wins against each other.

Pick: Under 9.0 Total Runs

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Despite Arizona's recent offensive surge and Chase Field's overall hitter-friendly nature, several factors point towards a lower-scoring affair in this matchup. The total is set at 9.0 runs, and we are leaning towards the Under.

Firstly, Chase Field, while generally a good park for offense, has a notable home run suppression factor of 89, meaning it limits the long ball. This can turn potential home runs into doubles or flyouts, keeping runs off the board. Secondly, the Cleveland Guardians boast a strong bullpen, led by Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith, who form a formidable late-inning trio. This contrasts with Arizona's inconsistent relief corps, which has been a source of frustration for their manager. If the game remains close, Cleveland's bullpen advantage should help keep the score down in the later innings.

Furthermore, the element of surprise with Parker Messick making his MLB debut for the Guardians could work in his favor, at least for his first time through the Diamondbacks' lineup. While Brandon Pfaadt's 5.08 ERA is concerning, he has performed better at home (4.33 ERA). Coupled with Cleveland's struggling offense, which has averaged just 3.97 runs per game recently, the conditions are ripe for a lower-scoring contest than the oddsmakers might suggest.

Top Player Prop Picks

José Ramírez Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Cleveland's star third baseman, José Ramírez, is heating up at the right time and presents a strong play for over 1.5 total bases. Ramírez homered in last night's game and has historically performed well against pitchers with Brandon Pfaadt's profile – right-handers who rely on breaking balls but struggle with command in the zone. Pfaadt has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings this season, making Ramírez a dangerous matchup. Additionally, Ramírez has been particularly effective in day games this season, posting an impressive .301 batting average, .388 on-base percentage, and .591 slugging percentage in afternoon contests. He has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 58% of his games this season, making the +115 odds for this prop particularly attractive.

Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 Strikeouts

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Arizona's starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, has a 12-8 record but also carries a 5.08 ERA and has allowed a significant number of hits this season (151). While the Guardians' team strikeout rate is not explicitly low, Pfaadt's overall performance metrics suggest he might struggle to rack up strikeouts against this Cleveland lineup. Given his tendency to allow hits and his high ERA, it's reasonable to expect that he might not dominate in the strikeout department. The odds for Pfaadt to go under 5.5 strikeouts are -120.

Corbin Carroll To Record a Triple

Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks' dynamic rookie, has been a triples machine this season. He logged his fourth two-triple game of the year on Tuesday, bringing his league-leading total to 16 triples. This is a rare feat, with only six players accomplishing that many two-triple games in a season since 1901. Chase Field, the home of the Diamondbacks, has a significant park factor for triples (192), meaning it sees 92% more triples than the average MLB park. This combination of Carroll's exceptional ability to hit triples and the favorable park factor makes the +750 odds for him to record a triple an intriguing long-shot prop bet.