One of this country's most storied rivalries is back for the second time in two weeks as the Boston Red Sox will head to the Bronx to take on MLB's best team the New York Yankees. 

Both teams are struggling entering tonight, but that will not stop me from watching. Whenever these two teams meet, it is always much watch TV. New York has a comfortable lead over everyone else in the AL East, and it only got bigger when Tampa Bay swept Boston. However, the Yankees are having their own troubles, losing two out of three against one of the worst teams in baseball at home. 

Anyway, let's get right into the picks. We would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.

 

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

 

Pickwatch Experts

Moneyline: 82% Yankees

Runline: 62% Red Sox

 

Betting Trends:

  • Boston Is 2-8 SU In Their Last 10 games
  • Boston Is 1-7 SU In Their Last 8 Games At New York
  • The Total Has Gone OVER In 4 Of The Last 5 Between These Two Teams
  • New York Is 1-4 SU In Their Last 5 Games

 

Are The Yankees Dead?

 

No, but they have entered a bad stretch of play that includes losing two of three against the Cincinnati Reds at home and losing the last two games of a four-game set against these Boston Red Sox. 

Even with their recent struggles, the Yankees are still playing extremely good baseball. Over the last week, New York is ranked fourth in runs (39), third in wRC+ (131), sixth in HRs (9), and second in fWAR (1.9). Tonight, they will go up against Boston's ace in Nathan Eovaldi. Coming into tonight, Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.16, but his xERA of 4.30 points towards some regression, and this is not the team you want to regress against. 

The Yankees have had some success against Eovaldi, including earlier in the season when they put up three runs on two bombs in only 5.0 IP. For his career, Eovaldi has a 3.76 ERA against the Yankees, and last season, he had a 3.71 ERA in 34.0 IP, which is the most amount of innings he has pitched against the Yankees. 

New York's prime players have also had a lot of success against Eovaldi. Aaron Judge is hitting .391, Anthony Rizzo is up to a .545 BA, and Giancarlo Stanton has mashed three bombs and has eight RBI against Eovaldi. With how well their stars hit Eovaldi and the fact that the Yankees have the best home-field advantage in baseball, things could get ugly for Boston, especially with a Yankees team that I am sure is tired of losing right now. 

 

Could The Sox Do It Again? 

 

Like New York, the Red Sox are in a bit of a slump, losing eight of their last 10, including a four-game sweep from the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. As I said earlier, they did just recently split a four-game set against the Yankees, but unlike New York, the offense does not look good while they are losing. 

Boston is ranked 21st in wRC+ (96), 20th in wOBA (.310), and 19th in fWAR (0.8) over the last week. However, they will go up against Jordan Montgomery tonight, who has been better this season, but he comes into this game with an xERA of 4.11, and he has a FIP of 4.42 against righties this season, which does not play well when Boston can throw JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts at him. 

The Red Sox are also significantly better as a team against lefties this season. They are ranked eighth in runs (120), and fourth in wOBA (.339), wRC+ (117), and OPS (.778) against southpaws. 

 

Red Sox vs Yankees Pick:

 

Both teams are struggling heading into this one, but one of those teams is still swinging the bats well during their recent slide, and that team just so happens to be the best team in baseball. 

Eovaldi will be making his first start since he suffered a back injury, but he has shown that he can thrive in this ballpark. Last season, Eovaldi had a 2.25 ERA in 16.0 IP at Yankees stadium. What is even more impressive was his 20 strikeouts to only two walks in New York last season. His lone start against the Yankees this season was not that great, but he kept the Red Sox in the game, and it took extra innings for the Yankees to pull off the opening day victory. 

I like the Red Sox F5 and a full game in this one. Eovaldi has been solid in this park, and Boston has had a lot of success against lefties this season. I do think they will end up winning the game, but the Yankees bullpen is far superior, and this is still the best lineup in baseball. 

Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (+134) & Red Sox ML (+140)

 

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