NBA Opening night started with a bang for BetSmart, generating wild profits in key markets. The NBA is particularly well suited to BetSmart's strengths, as the games come thick and fast, the sportsbooks get a lot wrong, and the way that games are played lends itself to more regular wins.

Here's the highlights from last night!

Positive EV

Positive EV betting is a mathematical concept whereby we only bet if the odds are better for us than the true odds.

That means if a bet should be -122 (probability 55%), and we can get it for +100 (probability 50%), we are getting a 10% advantage (5% of 50%) over the sportsbook. By only betting when the odds are in your favor, there's a statistical likelihood you will profit in the long term.

BetSmart's Positive EV tool identifies Positive EV bets for you. No need to compare, we'll work out any +EV % advantage, and you can then set about identifying the bets you want to make using our Bet Signals indicators, that highlight player, market, and over/under combinations that are profitable.

On opening night, here's what we learned:

Markets to watch

Player Total Points UNDER bets (6-0, 101% ROI)
Player Total Rebounds UNDER bets (3-1, 74.5% ROI)
Game Points Markets OVER bets (3-0, 101% ROI)

Markets to avoid

Player 3-pointers made OVER bets (0-3, -100% ROI)
Player Total Points, Rebounds and Assists OVER bets (5-6, -22.6% ROI)
Player Total Points OVER bets (3-7, -17.9% ROI)

As you can see, Under bets ruled on opening night, and while that's not guaranteed forever, there is some logic to it. Most under bets are for role players who already have low target lines, and therefore sportsbooks tend to be generous with those odds and lines deliberately in order to entice more action to the under.

Meanwhile, few Over markets hit, and that's because they're much harder to hit generally. If a player doesn't play much, or doesn't get opportunities, the under is the default outcome. A player must have an above-average night to beat the over, and again, logically, that's harder.

Tonight's Positive EV bets in the NBA are right here

Middle Bets

Middle Bets are one of the most profitable and exciting ways to bet - but only if you know which markets to back!

A middle bet involves betting both sides of the same bet, when two sportsbooks set different lines for the same player, prop, or game market.

Here's an example: KAT is over 20.5 with Bally bet, and under 21.5 with Fanduel. If he scores 21 points exactly, you win a big payout, as both sides land. Importantly, even though you've staked $59 in total, you can only lose either $2.90 if the over hits, or $1.58 if the under hits - you can't lose both!

Now, I don't actually recommend betting player points (or most of the time), but there are some golden rules for Middle Bets:

Bet markets with a low scoring increment - assists, rebounds, blocks and steals happen in 1's. Even if a player has more than one block on a play, it's impossible to get credited with 2 or 3 steals for one action. This means middles are more likely to hit as a player cannot go over the magic number of our middle bet, without at some stage being on it.
Bet low target lines - There is no point at all hoping you get a middle bet of 239 points in a game. That is a once in a blue-moon event. Instead, we're looking for players and bet combinations that are smaller. Role players with low numbers are good for this, as are bigger players in markets like steals or assists.
Bet as many middles as you can in profitable markets - Play the odds! If the loss is on average 6%, that means even if you hit only 1 in 15 middles, you'll make a profit. Find markets where middles hit regularly, and players with realistic target lines, and attack them! Even if this means lowering your stakes to start with, stick to one or two markets, and you'll generate a profit in the long haul - as our 'most profitable markets' data shows.

Those rules are generally logical in any sport, but which markets hit most frequently in the NBA last night?

Total Points and Assists target middle UNDER 13 points (2-4 - ROI 554%)
Total Points target middle UNDER 10 points (3-6 - ROI 450%)
Total Rebounds (2-8 - ROI 152%)

Remember, Middles aren't like 'normal' bets - you don't need a high hit rate. Anything over 10% hit rate means big profits.

The key to good Middle betting is understanding that a market as a whole can be unprofitable, but drill down into the data, and you find consistent trends that are very predictable.

I say this all the time, but the sweet spot for middle bets is always going to be low target values, as evidenced above. If a player is expected to have - like Alex Caruso last night - between 9.5 and 10.5 points and rebounds, then it's far more likely he hits that 10 exactly, than a player requiring 39 exactly, like SGA or Luka Doncic. No middles hit on total points for any values over 10 points!

As ever, I recommend Middles as the best way of making easy money using BetSmart. It does require you to work different sportsbooks, but if you hone in on the right values, and stick to markets that work, it's a cinch to lock in easy money and boost your bankroll.

See tonight's NBA middles from profitable markets here.

Want to try BetSmart?

First, I recommend our free trial. It's a generous 14 days to play with the tools and figure out how to use them. There's a learning curve, as you can imagine, but we're constantly working to make that easier for you. And when you sign up, use the code BET50 to get 50% off the monthly cost!

As ever, if you don't know how to use it, BetSmart has it's own dedicated Discord channels on our server, where I or other members of the community can answer your queries.