Welcome to an emergency edition of "quick hits." Today, we will give you the best bets for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and our three best plays for tonight's slate of baseball.
We have a full slate of baseball and the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are in the midst of a tough series to determine the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals. This is going to be a great night of sports, and I cannot wait to place a bet or several on all of these games.
I will skip all the boring stuff this time and just get straight into the picks. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NBA:
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 51% Celtics
Spread: 56% Celtics
Once again, I have no idea which team is the better of the two in this series. One game, the Celtics look terrible, and then the next, they cannot miss a shot, and they are playing suffocating defense. With their Game 4 victory, Boston tied this series at 2-2, but the series flips back to Miami for the ever so important Game 5.
There are still a lot of injuries to keep an eye out for on both sides, but everyone is expected to play with this being a highly important game for both teams. The Celtics are currently 2-point favorites, which is a little crazy since Miami has been so good at home in the playoffs, and Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are expected to play.
The total has gone over in three of the four games this series, and the over has cashed in five of the last seven between these two teams in Miami, and 10 of the last 14 overall between Boston and Miami. This is a game of two great defenses, but both offensives have been very efficient in the playoffs, and the total is way too low for me.
Pick: Over 204 (-110)
MLB:
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 63% Giants
Runline: 62% Mets
The Giants have the advantage on the mound as they will send out Jakob Junis, but that is not saying much as the Mets are sending out Thomas Szapucki, who will be making his first career MLB start tonight.
Junis has a 2.70 ERA entering this game, but with an xERA of 4.16 and an xFIP of 3.61, his numbers are not as good as they look, and a solid lineup like New York's has the potential to breakthrough in this spot. The Mets are ranked second in runs (219), WAR (9.2), and OBP (.334). They are also ranked first in BABIP (.311), and fourth in wRC+ (115).
Starting a rookie against a solid Giants lineup is scary, but I love the value with the Mets.
Pick: Mets ML (+110)
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 86% Yankees
Runline: 52% Yankees
It is hard to put into words just how great the Yankees' lineup has been this season. They come into this game ranked sixth in runs (206), third in OPS (.741), and second in wRC+ (118). We also have to give another shoutout to Aaron Judge, who has been unreal this season. He comes into tonight slashing .314/.386/.692 with an OPS of 1.079, and a league-high 17 home runs.
The Yankees will go up against Tyler Wells, who enters tonight with a 4.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19. If you can believe it, Baltimore loses a lot against New York, losing two of their last nine against the Yankees. The O's are also 1-4 in their last five road games, and they are getting outscored against New York 53-40 so far this season.
Baltimore is actually one of the more profitable teams, going 26-18 ATS this season, and the Yankees are only 21-22 ATS> However, based on the offense, and the pitching matchup, we are rolling with the Yanks on the runline.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+126)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 83% Braves
Runline: 57% Phillies
Bryce Harper is back in the lineup, but will not play the field due to an elbow injury. He was shut down for a few days to give him a chance to heal, and the Phillies struggled during that stretch, going 1-4. Now that Harper is back, the Phillies are averaging 5.3 runs per game.
On the season, their offense is ranked 14th in wRC+ (104), 19th in hard-hit rate (28.9%), and eighth in runs (196). Their offense is very average, but when Harper is in the lineup, everything changes. Tonight, they will have to face Charlie Morton, who comes into this game with an xERA of 4.81 and an xFIP of 4.76. The Braves are the better team in this matchup, but they cannot find any consistency.
Neither team has been very profitable this season, but with the way the Phillies offense has played since Harper came back from his injury, we will roll with the Phillies and the value on the ML.
Pick: Phillies ML (+136)
Photo: Getty Images