Hello, and welcome back to quick hits. Just like yesterday, we do not have a lot of action on the board, but also like yesterday, that will not stop us from giving out the best picks of the night on the diamond as well as the ice.
Once again, one of my favorite teams to bet on makes an appearance on my card, but this team is winning me too much money to stop tailing them at this point. I am finally starting to snap out of the worst cold streak of my life, and if I know anything about myself, it is that I get white-hot after going cold. It's a feel thing as well. You can tell when you are seeing the board clearly, and that is exactly how I feel about tonight's action.
Anyway, let's get right into the picks. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
MLB:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 82% Dodgers
Runline: 51% Dodgers
The Dodgers are still the class of the NL, but the injuries are starting to pile up, especially in their rotation. With Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney, and Dustin May all on the IL, Los Angeles will send out Mitch White, who has a 4.79 ERA in his 20.2 IP. He has only started three games, and White has given up six earned in 11.1 IP in his starts.
On the other side, the White Sox will start Michael Kopech, who was untouchable to start the season but has since come back down to earth. Kopech gave up five earned runs in his last start against the Blue Jays, and in his last 16 IP, he has a 4.50 ERA. Like the Dodgers, the White Sox are also having some bad luck with injuries. Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez are currently on the shelf, and the majority of their lineup has spent some time on the IL.
This game comes down to the Dodgers have been mashing despite their injuries as they are ranked second in runs (290) and third in wRC+ (116). Chicago on the other hand, has been dreadful as they are ranked 23rd in wRC+ (92) and 27th in runs (190).
Los Angeles is on a bit of a slide right now, but they have won six of their last seven road games, and they are 18-9 on the road this season while Chicago is only 11-13 on their home diamond.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-124)
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 64% Padres
Runline: 64% Mets
Yeah, I am betting on the Mets again, what of it?
They will have to go up against Yu Darvish, who is not what he once was, but has been constantly solid for the Padres this season. He enters this game with an xERA of 3.96 in his 10 starts. However, his hard-hit rate has ballooned up to 38.5%, and over his last four starts, he has given up 12 earned runs, but he is averaging 6.2 IP per start over his last four.
The problem for Darvish is the Mets have arguably the best pound-for-pound lineup in baseball. Sure, they do not hit the ball hard, and they are ranked 16th in HR (54), but they are first in runs (297), AVG (.267), OBP (.338), and wRC+ (117). The Mets will be sending out Taijuan Walker, who has been fine this season, but I am not a huge fan of him.
While Walker enters tonight with a 2.88 ERA, his xERA of 4.38 concerns me. Like I said yesterday, San Diego has held their own without Fernando Tatis Jr., but overall, they are just a "meh" team right now. I like New York's lineup, and I love that they are plus-money tonight on the ML. The Mets are also 7-6 as a dog this season, and they are 20-10 on the road.
Gimme the Mets......again.
Pick: Mets ML (+110)
NHL:
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 74% Lightning
Puckline: 72% Rangers
As I said in my blog for Game 3, it does not matter the situation, the Tampa Bay Lightning are inevitable.
The Rangers have a couple of injuries to deal with as Barclay Goodrow and Ryan Strome were hobbled in the last game. Both are expected to give it a go tonight, but that is a huge blow to the Rangers, who are thriving on their depth in the playoffs. Even though New York is up 2-1 in the series, they just are not a better team than the Lightning.
Even then, I woke up this morning fully prepared to back the Rangers tonight because of the value. Igor Shesterkin has been lethal between the posts in the playoffs, with a .930 save percentage and the Rangers are capitalizing on 31.4% of their power-plays.
All this is telling me that New York takes advantage of every situation, and they sometimes get a little lucky. However, luck will never win you a series against the back-to-back Cup Champions in a seven-game series. With this game in Tampa, I will back the Lightning on their home ice.
The value is not great on the ML, so we will take them on the puckline. I always love taking favorites on the PL because of the end-of-game empty-net situation.
It is such a thrill for the team you bet on to be up by one, with an empty net and minutes to go. It is absolutle chaos, and I love every second of it.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+150)
Photo: Getty Images