Welcome back to "quick hits." Tonight, we have a full slate of action including the NHL playoffs, and Game 2 of the NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics looking to take both games on the road against the Golden State Warriors.
As always, there is also a lot of baseball, which we have two picks for today, including Sunday Night Baseball. This is going to be such a great sports night, and I cannot wait to watch and place a few wagers on all of these games. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NBA:
NBA Finals Game 2: Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 89% Warriors
Spread: 62% Warriors
On this very blog, I gave out the Warriors -4, the Warriors team total over, and Warriors alt line -9.5 for Game 1. After the traditional Golden State third-quarter explosion, I felt pretty good, and then they went into an interesting strategy of not making shots and allowing Boston to make all of the shots. If I were Steve Kerr, I would throw that game plan in the trash.
As someone with a Golden State future, I am a little nervous that Stephen Curry can break a first-quarter NBA Finals scoring record, and they still lose. The Celtics were not that great in Game 1, and to be honest, neither were the Warriors, as Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Draymond Green were all non-factors on offense.
The Warriors live and die with the Splash brothers, especially Curry, but their depth is a big reason why they have been so good for so long. I still feel like Golden State is the best team, and they are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after a loss in these playoffs. I also love this stat that after losing as a Game 1-home favorite in the playoffs, teams are 47-32 ATS in Game 2.
To put it simply, I just cannot imagine the Warriors losing both their home games to start the NBA Finals.
Pick: Warriors -4 (-112)
NHL:
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 84% Lightning
Puck line: 69% Rangers
Even though Tampa Bay lost both games in New York to start this series, they still feel like they are inevitable. The Lightning have been the class of the NHL for a few years now, and we can track their reign of dominance back to 2015 when they lost in the Cup Finals to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Tampa is a heavy favorite on their home ice tonight, for a good reason. Their undefeated streak after a loss in the playoffs ended after Game 2, but they are still 17-1 after a playoff loss in the last three seasons, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is only allowing 1.5 goals per game in those games. Tampa also has five shutouts in that time, and they are scoring just under four goals per game.
While the Rangers have looked unstoppable after going down 3-1 to the Penguins in the first round, I love Tampa on the puck line tonight.
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+152)
MLB:
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 82% Dodgers
Run line: 56% Dodgers
It may just be me, but I feel like we are not talking about how good the Dodgers are (still). They enter this game on a bit of a losing streak, and they just recently got swept at home by the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, they are 35-18, and they are ranked second in wRC+ (117), sixth in Barrels (121), and first in wOBA (.335), SLG (.427), and OPS (.752).
Even with their struggles and the Mets coming in playing some good baseball, Los Angeles has the advantage on the mound with Julio Urias, and the Mets will send out Trevor Williams, who has been awful on the road. Whenever one team has a clear edge with the pitching matchup, it just screams for me to take the F5 line. That is especially true when that team is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Pick: Dodgers -0.5 F5 (-130)
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 92% Cardinals
Run Line: 67% Cubs
The haters are going to say that I am complaining about the Cubs being on national t.v. because of what they did to my beloved Cleveland (REDACTED) in the 2016 World Series, but the real reason is that they are just not good. At some point, don't Chicago fans just want to take a step back into irrelevancy? When you detach all hope and only get attached when you are good, sports are about 100x more enjoyable.
Anyway, the Cubs are actually ranked 4th in scoring runs at home, but the pitching has been atrocious, and they are going up against Adam Wainwright, who has only given up one run in his last 15.0 IP against the Cubs. Entering this game, Wainwright has a 2.75 ERA, and his hard-hit rate is down to 29.2%, which would be his best since 2018.
The Cubs do have a solid offense, but they are struggling as of late, and the Cardinals have their ageless wonder on the mound. I would play them on the ML up to -145, and if you can find a good number on the RL, it is worth a sprinkle.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-132)
Photo: Getty Images
