We have three preseason games on the schedule tonight, and that means it is time to give out some winners.
I will say, it feels so good to be able to bet on football again, even if it is only the preseason. The over has been automatic through the preseason, except for last night. Did anyone else have the over with me for the Seahawks vs. the bears? That was the most aggravating bet I have ever lost. Seattle recovered an onside kick late in the game and all we needed was two points to cash another over.
Instead, in a touching tribute to the worst call in the history of football, Pete Carroll lost his mind in the RedZone and decided that the corner fade was going to work for the first time in the history of football.
It did not.
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*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
It is hard for me to bet against Bill Belichick, especially in the preseason, but the Panthers have the overwhelming advantage in this game for one reason, the quarterback room.
According to reports, it is starting to sound like Baker Mayfield is going to be named the starter sometime in the recent future, meaning Sam Darnold, Matt Corral, and P.J. Walker will back him up. Besides Corral, who has looked good in his limited action in the NFL so far, every one of these quarterbacks has started multiple games in this league. New England will obviously have Mac Jones as their starter but expect only a few series as they turn to Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe the rest of the way.
Belichick is an impressive 49-37 in preseason play, but looking at the Patriots' depth chart, I have some real questions about their depth. Their wide receivers are "meh" and there is no true "homerun threat" that New England can turn to on any level of the depth chart.
While the Panthers had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, the preseason usually comes down to which backup quarterback screws up less. I will take my chances with the experience in Carolina, and take them on the ML.
Pick: Panthers ML (+175)
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Although the Packers have been one of the winningest teams in the NFL since Matt LaFleur took over, he is only 2-6 in the preseason. A big part of that is there is no real reason for Aaron Rodgers to even show up to preseason games, but he is expected to get a few snaps tonight.
However, Green Bay will be without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins tonight, so do not expect the first-team offense to go long. In a desperate attempt to make it seem like they knew what they were doing, the Packers will let Jordan Love cook for the majority of tonight, and the entire preseason, which is not exactly a good thing looking back at his performance against the 49ers last week.
I came into this game wanting to take the over, as preseason overs have been money so far, but New Orleans could only muster up 13 points against an awful Houston team last week, and both defenses have looked impressive in the preseason, including the Saints, who had three interceptions last week.
Instead, we will take the Packers and the points in this one. I am not a fan of Love, but I do not think that Ian Book and a poor Saint's team are much better.
Pick: Packers -3 (-110)
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Rams
The defending Super Bowl champions will sit the majority of their starters tonight, as Sean McVay announced that John Wolford will get the start, with Bryce Perkins likely to play the second half.
Like most good teams, there is no real reason to play your stars in the preseason other than a quick tune-up in the last preseason game.
On the other side, Houston will play the majority of their starters for at least a few series as their roster is nowhere even close to being set. This means that Davis Mills, who many people are very high on after a sharp first season in the NFL, will see more playing time than he did last week against the Saints.
Because of that, Houston is actually giving 2.5 points on the road in this one, which gives the public a real advantage. I think the oddsmakers are overreacting to Houston's started getting more run this week, as I am not 100% convinced that is a real advantage at all. Houston is in a very bad spot as a franchise, and the Rams, while very top-heavy on both sides of the ball, certainly have a better roster.
I will be backing the Rams in this one as I do not see where on the depth chart the Texans can point to and say "we are better."
Pick: Rams +2.5 (-110)
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