Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/18/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Baltimore Orioles hit the road to face the Boston Red Sox.

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Boston Red Sox -120 (Caesars), Baltimore Orioles +105 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-205) (Caesars), Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-200) (ESPN BET)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 -120 (Caesars), Under 8.5 -115 (ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-18
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Fenway Park
TV: ESPN+

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox (68-57) are set to host the Baltimore Orioles (57-67) at Fenway Park in what promises to be a compelling MLB matchup. The Red Sox come into this game with a 5.5-game lead over the Orioles in the standings, showcasing a stronger overall season record. Boston's offense has been a key factor in their success, ranking 5th in MLB with an impressive team batting average of .273, demonstrating their ability to consistently hit for power and drive in runs. Their recent form, however, has been a bit inconsistent, with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games, averaging 5.2 runs per game while allowing 4.3.

On the mound for the Red Sox will be Dustin May (7-8, 4.67 ERA), who is coming off a strong outing where he pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. Projections suggest he might allow around 2.6 earned runs in today's game. For the Orioles, Trevor Rogers (5-2, 1.43 ERA) is slated to start. While Rogers boasts an excellent ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he may have benefited from some favorable luck this season. The Orioles have shown an uptick in form recently, winning 6 of their last 10 games, with a more reliable defense allowing just 2.9 runs per game while their offense averages 4.5 runs.

Fenway Park, known for its hitter-friendly environment with a Park Factor of 105, could play a significant role in this contest, potentially favoring Boston's potent offense.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The historical head-to-head record between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles reveals a notable dominance by Boston. The Red Sox boast 97 wins against the Orioles, with 40 of those victories secured on their home turf at Fenway Park. In comparison, the Orioles have 69 wins against the Red Sox, with 34 of those coming on the road. The last encounter between these two teams occurred on May 25, which saw the Orioles emerge with a 5-1 victory. Historically, the Red Sox, as the home team, have averaged an impressive 5.33 runs per game in these matchups, while the Orioles, as visitors, have responded with an average of 4.43 runs per match.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

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The Boston Red Sox are the favored team in this matchup, and for good reason. Their strong offensive lineup, ranked 5th in MLB, is well-positioned to capitalize on the hitter-friendly conditions at Fenway Park. While their recent form has been mixed, their overall season record of 68-57 is superior to Baltimore's 57-67. Dustin May, despite an up-and-down season, is coming off a strong performance and has a favorable track record when his team is the moneyline favorite, with a 9-8 record in such starts. Betting markets also reflect confidence in Boston, with sharp money showing a 52.86% lean towards the Red Sox moneyline, and computer predictions giving them a 56.4% chance of winning. Considering their home advantage, offensive prowess, and the current pitching matchup, backing the Red Sox to win outright at -120 offers solid value.

Top Player Prop Picks

Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Hits

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Alex Bregman of the Boston Red Sox has been in excellent hitting form. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10 games, with a season hit rate of 70%. More impressively, Bregman has hit the over on this line in 100% of his 4 appearances against the Baltimore Orioles this season, averaging 1.5 hits per game in those matchups. Playing at home, he has hit the over in 64.29% of his games this season. Given his recent consistency and strong performance against the Orioles, taking Bregman to get over 0.5 hits at -260 odds via Fanduel is a confident pick.

Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs

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Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers has demonstrated remarkable consistency in going deep into games. He has hit the over on 17.5 pitcher outs in 100% of his last 5 starts and 80% of his last 10 starts. His season-long hit rate for this prop stands at an impressive 81.82%. In his single appearance against the Boston Red Sox this season, Rogers recorded 19.0 outs, hitting the over. When pitching on the road, he has hit the over in 71.43% of his starts this season. With a strong trend of pitching deep into games, Rogers is a good bet to go over 17.5 pitcher outs at -101 odds via Pinnacle.

Jarren Duran Over 0.5 Hits

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Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran has been a consistent presence on base this season. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 60% of his last 5 games, 70% of his last 10 games, and 80% of his last 20 games, with a season hit rate of 70.97%. Against the Baltimore Orioles this season, Duran has hit the over in 62.5% of his 8 appearances, averaging 1.5 hits per game. Furthermore, playing at home, he has hit the over in 75.38% of his games this season. Given his strong overall hitting performance and favorable matchups against the Orioles at Fenway Park, taking Duran to get over 0.5 hits at -186 odds via BetRivers is a solid play.

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