Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/14/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Atlanta Braves hit the road to face the New York Mets.

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets -190 (SBR), Atlanta Braves +166 (FanDuel)
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets -1.5
Best Total Odds: Over/Under 8.5

Game Info

Date: August 14, 2025
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
TV: -

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets (64-56) are set to host the Atlanta Braves (52-68) at Citi Field in a crucial matchup as both teams navigate the playoff race. The Mets, currently second in the NL East, have shown inconsistency recently with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, though they are coming off a strong 13-5 win against the Braves. Their home record of 39-21 is a significant strength, and their pitching staff ranks 5th in ERA. Offensively, the Mets are middle-of-the-pack, ranking 15th in runs scored, but boast power with 153 home runs (8th in MLB) and a .411 slugging percentage (9th). Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have been key offensive contributors, with Alonso recently breaking the Mets' all-time home run record.

The Atlanta Braves, despite a talented roster, have been a disappointment this season with a 52-68 record, sitting fourth in the NL East. They are 21st in runs scored and 22nd in team ERA (4.29). However, they enter this game after an 11-6 victory over the Mets, showcasing their offensive potential. The Braves have been balanced in their last 10 games, with a 5-5 record, and their offense has consistently delivered over 3.5 runs per game on the road. Key players like Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna provide power, each with 19 home runs.

On the mound, the Mets will send right-hander Kodai Senga (7-4, 2.30 ERA) to start. Senga has been effective this season, and the Mets are 13-4 when he starts as the moneyline favorite. For the Braves, right-hander Bryce Elder (4-9, 6.12 ERA) will take the hill. Elder has struggled this year, and the Braves are 1-7 in his eight starts where they were the moneyline underdog.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have a rich history, with the Mets holding 65 wins (37 at home) against the Braves' more impressive 93 victories (50 away). In their last 10 head-to-head matchups, the Braves have held a 7-3 advantage. However, the Mets have recently turned the tide, winning three of their past four games against Atlanta after splitting the first two games of this August series. In 2025, the teams are tied 3-3 in games played in New York. Recent encounters have been high-scoring, with 18 and 17 runs scored in the two games of this series so far. The Over has hit in 6 of their last 10 head-to-head matchups.

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

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The New York Mets are the favored team in this matchup, and for good reason. They boast a stronger pitching staff, led by Kodai Senga, who has been highly effective this season with a 2.30 ERA. The Mets have a strong 13-4 record when Senga starts and they are moneyline favorites. While the Braves have shown flashes of offensive power, their overall team ERA of 4.29 (22nd in the league) is a concern, especially against a Mets lineup that can explode for runs, as seen in their recent 13-5 victory. The Mets' strong home record (39-21) further solidifies their position. Despite the Braves' historical edge in recent head-to-head series, the Mets have won three of the last four games, indicating a shift in momentum. The model projects the Mets to win with a 61.3% probability, making the moneyline pick a confident choice.

Top Player Prop Picks

Pete Alonso - To Get an RBI

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Pete Alonso has been on a tear in August, slashing an impressive .386/.408/.886. He has already accumulated 17 RBIs this month, bringing his season total to 98, tied for first in the league. Alonso has driven in a run in four consecutive games and in eight of his 11 games this month. His historical matchup against Braves starter Bryce Elder is also favorable, as he is 3-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs. Dimers projects a 40.4% chance for Alonso to record an RBI in this game.

Juan Soto - To Get 1+ Hit

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Juan Soto has consistently been a top performer for the New York Mets. He has a strong historical record against Braves starter Bryce Elder, going 2-for-3 with a home run in their previous encounters. Soto recently contributed to the Mets' offensive outburst with a home run in their 13-5 win. Dimers projects a 62.3% chance for Juan Soto to record at least one hit in this contest, making this a solid prop bet.

Marcell Ozuna - To Get 1+ Hit

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Marcell Ozuna provides significant power for the Atlanta Braves lineup. He recently hit a home run in the Braves' 11-6 victory over the Mets, demonstrating his ability to impact the game offensively. While his career numbers against Mets starter Kodai Senga are limited, he does have a double in his four plate appearances against him. Dimers projects a 59.4% chance for Marcell Ozuna to record at least one hit in this game, making him a strong candidate to contribute offensively for the Braves.

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