Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/12/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Atlanta Braves hit the road to face the New York Mets.

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Mets -138 (Fanduel), Atlanta Braves +125 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: New York Mets -1.5 (+150), Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-175)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 (-115) (Caesars), Under 8.5 (-125) (ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-12
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
TV: FDSNSO, SNY

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets (63-55) are currently in a significant slump, having lost seven straight games and going 1-11 since July 28th. Despite their strong 38-21 home record, they've dropped five of their last six games at Citi Field. Their offense has shown power, hitting 147 home runs this season, but they've struggled to capitalize with runners on base, and their bullpen has been heavily utilized, throwing 19.1 innings over their last four games with diminishing returns. Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.46 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) is slated to start for the Mets, providing a reliable presence on the mound, though even he has shown some vulnerability recently.

On the other side, the Atlanta Braves (51-67) are showing signs of life, winning four of their last five games and currently on a three-game winning streak. They recently took four out of five games from the Miami Marlins, scoring seven or more runs in three of those victories, a notable improvement for an offense that has been inconsistent on the road (3-7 in their last 10 away games). Spencer Strider (5-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) will take the mound for Atlanta. While Strider boasts a strong strikeout rate (98 K in 82.1 IP), he has struggled with walks (33 BB) and home runs (12 allowed), particularly against left-handed batters. Citi Field, known for being a pitcher-friendly park, might offer some relief, but light winds blowing out to right-center could favor left-handed power bats.

Both teams are dealing with key injuries. The Braves are without Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-Day IL) and Austin Riley (10-Day IL), while the Mets have Paul Blackburn (15-Day IL) and Tylor Megill (60-Day IL) among others on the injured list. The Mets are desperate to halt their freefall and maintain their playoff position, while the Braves aim to continue their recent momentum and play spoiler in this divisional matchup.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Atlanta Braves have historically dominated this head-to-head matchup, particularly in recent times. They hold a 9-3 record against the New York Mets in their last 12 encounters. This season, the Braves have maintained their superiority, holding a 5-2 advantage in the season series. Atlanta has also performed well at Citi Field, winning four of their last six games there. The Braves are looking to secure the season series against the Mets for the eighth consecutive year and the 24th time since joining the NL East in 1994. In terms of pitching matchups, Clay Holmes has a career 2.18 ERA in 12 outings against the Braves, while Spencer Strider holds a 6-1 record against the Mets despite a higher 4.97 ERA in 10 career appearances.

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline

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Despite the New York Mets being favored at home, the Atlanta Braves present compelling value as an underdog. The Mets are in a severe freefall, having lost seven straight games and showing clear signs of struggle, both offensively and from their bullpen. The Braves, on the other hand, are riding a three-game winning streak and have shown a recent offensive surge, scoring runs in bunches against the Marlins. Historically, Atlanta has had the Mets' number, holding a dominant 9-3 record in their last 12 head-to-head matchups and a 5-2 advantage this season. While Spencer Strider can be inconsistent, his high strikeout potential could neutralize a Mets lineup that has been pressing. Given the Braves' recent momentum and their strong historical performance against New York, backing Atlanta to win outright offers significant value.

Top Player Prop Picks

Jeff McNeil (New York Mets) - Over 0.5 Hits

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Jeff McNeil has been a consistent hitter for the Mets, especially at home. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games and 80% of his last ten games. For the season, he's hit the over in 65.85% of his games. Against the Braves in 2025, McNeil has hit the over in 71.43% of his seven appearances. Playing at home this season, he's hit the over in 70.73% of his 41 games. With Spencer Strider's 1.30 WHIP, there should be opportunities for McNeil to get on base.

Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves) - Over 0.5 Hits

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Matt Olson has been a reliable source of hits for the Braves, particularly against the Mets. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten games. His season hit rate for the over is an impressive 72.88%. Against the Mets in 2025, Olson has hit the over in 100% of his seven matchups, and in 2024, he hit the over in 93.33% of his 15 games against them. As a visitor in 2025, he's hit the over in 67.24% of his 58 games. Olson's strong performance against this opponent makes him a solid pick.

Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves) - Over 4.5 Hits Allowed

Spencer Strider, despite his strikeout prowess, has shown a tendency to allow hits. He has gone over 4.5 hits allowed in 80% of his last five starts and 70% of his last ten starts. For the season, he's hit the over in 66.67% of his appearances. While his 2025 numbers against the Mets show a 50% hit rate over two games, his overall season and recent trends suggest he can be vulnerable. With a 1.30 WHIP and the Mets' ability to put balls in play, especially with light winds potentially aiding left-handed power bats, Strider is likely to concede more than 4.5 hits in this matchup.

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