The Los Angeles Chargers finished 10-7 overall, 5-4 on the road, 11-5-1 against the spread and 7-2 ATS on the road. They were 4-1 ATS as road favorites as the opening odds suggest in this Saturday's Wild Card matchup.

The Jaguars finished 9-8 overall, 5-3 at home, 8-9 against the spread, and 4-3 ATS at home. The Jags were 4-0 ATS as home underdogs.

Wild Card: Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Game Info


January 14, 2023, 8:15 PM ET


TIAA Bank Field

TV Coverage


Opening Betting Odds

Chargers -1.5 / O/U 46.5

Line Movement

The Chargers opened as 1.5-point road favorites, but have since moved to a consensus line of Los Angeles -1 at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Jaguars moneyline odds are around +100, EVEN money. The over-under point total opened at 46.5, but has ticked up to O/U 47.5. The UNDER hit in six of the Jaguars eight home games and four of the Chargers past six games.

Jaguars-Chargers Week 3: Jacksonville beat Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium back in early-September 38-10. Trevor Lawrence tossed three touchdowns in the win.

It's worth noting that this game was played right after Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in a loss to the Chiefs in Week 2. He played through the injury, but completed a season-low 55.6% of his passes and lost a fumble and tossed a pick. In 13 of his next 14 starts, Herbert's completion percentage didn't dip below 60%.

Jaguars running back James Robinson, who is no longer on the roster, averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 17 touches.

Chargers News and Notes

  • Wide receiver Mike Williams was carted off during Sunday's loss to the Broncos with a back injury. Note: Williams has a history of neck and back issues including a fractured neck vertebrae when at Clemson.
    • The team received positive news Monday that he suffered a back contusion and should practice this week. He's questionable for Saturday.
  • Pass rusher Joey Bosa was seen on the sidelines with medical staff Sunday. He missed some time this season due to a groin injury.
  • The Chargers rushed for just 26 yards in the loss to Jacksonville earlier this season.
    • The offensive line was pretty dinged up that game and missing key players, but still, 26 yards?
  • Speaking of rushing, the Chargers defense joined an unfortunate fraternity this season. According to Joe Reedy, the LAC front seven allowed the sixth-most yards per rush since 1933: 5.42 YPR. 
    • CC: Etienne, Travis
  • For as well as this team played down the stretch, remember they needed a last-second touchdown and two-point conversion to beat the Cardinals Thanksgiving weekend and then lost at the Raiders the following week.

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

When handicapping any NFL contest, I always make sure to dig into these data points to see if I can glean any type of edge.

What's fascinating about this Wild Card matchup is just how evenly matched the Chargers and Jaguars are statistically. Granted, Jacksonville's 3rd-down and red zone defenses are below average, but the Chargers can't stop the rush.

Team Off. 3rd Down Conversion Rate

Off. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)

Def. 3rd Down Conversion Rate Def. RZ Conversion Rate (TD) TO Margin Per Game
Chargers 43.6% (8th) 54.1% (17th) 39.2% (19th) 53.2% (12th) +0.3 (7th)
Jaguars 41.9% (9th) 53.6% (20th) 43.2% (29th) 59.6% (24th) +0.3 (7th)

Jaguars News and Notes

  • Jacksonville has won five games in a row by an average margin of 13.6 points per win.
  • They are 4-1 ATS during that stretch.
  • Prior to the Jags win-or-go-home Week 18 game against the Titans, Travis Etienne had averaged 98 rush yards per game over his previous three.
    • He faces the Chargers 28th-ranked rush defense that just allowed 205 yards to the Broncos.
    • Jacksonville's ability to run the ball will take pressure off Trevor Lawrence who looked tight in Week 18. T-Law has thrown only two interceptions since October 31st.
  • Jacksonville held Derrick Henry to 3.6 yards per carry on 30 touches. Though Austin Ekeler is a different type of back, remember 2.2 YPC back in Week 3.

Betting Pick: Jaguars +1, UNDER 47.5

Don't get me wrong, I think the Chargers are in a better position to win playoff games now than when Philip Rivers was behind center.

However, I don't like the Week 18 trip up in Denver's altitude (where it appeared the Chargers were actually trying to win the game), injuries sustained, then quick turnaround to play at Jacksonville on a short week to start the playoffs.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley versus Jaguars coach Doug Pederson - who has a Super Bowl title in his back pocket. I think Pederson has his guys loose, while Staley's are tight.

Chargers' inability to stop the run proves costly as Travis Etienne is the game's MVP.