Unless you've been living under a proverbial rock, you know about Trevor Lawrence's four interceptions thrown to the Chargers in the Wild Card round. However, aside from the dramatic 31-30 comeback win, against the spread cover as 2-point home dogs, and sixth consecutive win, other flowers should be handed out. The defense held the Chargers to three points in the second half and Travis Etienne rushed for more than 100 yards for the third time in the last five games.

The Chiefs enjoyed the perks of the AFC No. 1 seed and were off last weekend. They finished the regular season 14-3 overall, but were only 6-10-1 against the spread. Kansas City was 2-5-1 ATS at home and 2-4-1 as the home favorite.

Divisional Round: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Game Info
Date	January 21, 2023, 4:30 PM ET
Stadium	Arrowhead Field
TV Coverage	CBS
Opening Betting Odds	Chiefs -8.5 / O/U 52

Line Movement

The Chiefs opened as 8.5-point home favorites, but can be found as low as Kansas City -8 at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Jaguars moneyline odds are around +360, down from opening at 4-to-1. The over-under point total opened at 52, but the consensus is now more like O/U 52.5 with some outlets as high as 53. The UNDER has cashed in six of the Chiefs eight home games this season.

In their last 10 home games where they were favored by 8-or-more points, the Chiefs are 10-0 straight up, 6-4 ATS and the UNDER has hit in seven of those 10 matchups. Worth noting, they've covered three of their past four under those conditions.

Previous Meeting

These two teams met on November 13 at Arrowhead. Despite forcing three Chiefs turnovers, Jacksonville not only lost the game 27-17, they failed to cover as 9.5-point road underdogs. Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times in the loss.

Jaguars News and Notes

Jacksonville has comeback in seven of their past eight wins.
- File Under: living dangerously
- File Under: backdoor covers creeping
Trevor Lawrence was limited with a toe injury (known). Offensive lineman Brandon Scherff missed practice Tuesday due to an abdomen injury he's playing through. Center Luke Fortner was added to the injury report and limited in practice with a back injury.
- While both players remain probable for Saturday, it's noteworthy considering the Chiefs sacked Lawrence five times in the first meeting and, um, accuracy issues he had against the Chargers.
Somewhat lost in the win over Los Angeles was that the Jags held the Chargers to 2.9 yards per rush on 23 carries.
However, all eyes will be on Jacksonville's 27th-ranked pass defense as they attempt to contain Mahomes and minimize the damage. A task they failed in the previous meeting.

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

Here's a wild Wild Card stat for you. Jacksonville converted only 20% of their third downs against the Chargers (2-of-10), but converted 75% (3-4) of their red zone trips. On the season, the Jaguars rank in the middle of the NFL in both categories. Compare that to the Chiefs hyper-offense, which ranks 2nd in both 3rd down and red zone conversion rate.

Jacksonville only managed to convert 4-of-14 third downs in their regular season loss to the Chiefs and let Kansas City convert 4-of-5 red zone trips. Of the three Chiefs turnovers, Jacksonville did manage to score one touchdown. Trailing 27-10 late in the fourth, Lawrence connected with Christian Kirk for the score.

Team	Off. 3rd Down Conversion Rate	Off. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)	Def. 3rd Down Conversion Rate	Def. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)	2nd Half Points Per Game
Jaguars	40.89% (13th)	54.84% (17th)	43.46% (29th)	59.65% (24th)	12.8 (7th)
Chiefs	48.70% (2nd)	69.4% (2nd)	38.29% (13th)	67.27% (31st)	13.1 (3rd)

With both teams averaging double-digits in the second half, the fear of a backdoor cover, especially in the playoffs, is always a concern.

Chiefs News and Notes

Head coach Andy Reid is 27-4 straight up after a BYE week.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected back from an ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 11.
- News isn't so good for Mecole Hardman who remains out with a pelvis injury.
In 7 of their 17 games this season Chiefs-Opponent have combined for more than 53 points.
Forecast: temps in the low-40s, no precipitation, light wind

Betting Pick: Chiefs -8.5 / 6-Point Teaser KC -2.5 pair with Giants/Bengals

Andy Reid after a BYE is one thing. Playing Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs loaded offense, Andy Reid after a BYE, and trying to catch your breath after an historic comeback win is another. Laying 8.5 points in the playoffs may be risky business for some, but I do believe Kansas City rolls in this matchup. If it makes you nervous, tease it down to Chiefs -2.5 and pair it with Bengals +11 or Giants +13.5.