With the ball resting on the Bengals' one-yard line, it appeared the Ravens were about to take a 7-point lead early in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card playoff matchup. However, the "Cincinnati Kid" Sam Hubbard, as Mike Tirico branded him, made the play of the year, returning Tyler Huntley's fumble 98-yards for the go-ahead and eventual game-winning score.

Though they didn't cover the consensus closing line of -8/-8.5, if bettors snagged the opening line of Cincinnati -6.5, their bet slips cashed in a 24-17 Bengals win.

Josh Allen's three turnovers cost the Bills 17 points and Buffalo needed 14 unanswered third-quarter points to put the Tua-less Dolphins away for good in a 34-31 victory. With Skylar Thompson behind center, the point spread swelled to Bills -14, which they failed to cover, but both teams crushed the OVER 44.5-point total. The Bills are just 4-6 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Divisional Round: Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Game Info
Date	January 22, 2023, 3:00 PM ET
Stadium	Highmark Stadium
TV Coverage	CBS
Opening Betting Odds	Bills -4.5 / 50.5

Line Movement

The Bills opened as 4.5-point home favorites, but the line continues to ping-pong back and forth between Buffalo -5 and -4.5 at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Bengals moneyline odds are around +200. The over-under point total opened at 50.5, but the consensus is now more like O/U 48. The OVER has hit in five of the last six Bills home games.

The Bengals are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games and were 7-2 ATS away from Paycor Stadium this season.

Previous Meeting

The Bengals and Bills met earlier this month, on January 2, in Cincinnati. However, the game was cancelled following Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest event on the field.

The game ended with the Bengals leading 7-3 in the first quarter.

Bengals News and Notes

Cincinnati has won 9 straight games by 9.25 point differential per contest.
- They've averaged 29 points per game during the streak.
Bengals offensive lineman Jonah Williams dislocated his knee cap for the second time this season. Now both legs have endured the agony of popping out of place. He's doubtful for this weekend.
- Also missing from the Cincy o-line are La'el Collins who is out for the season due to a knee injury and Alex Cappa is doubtful with a week-to-week ankle injury.
- So, that's 3/5ths of the Bengals starting offensive line likely out against the Bills.
- The Bills average 2.6 sacks per game (10th) and took Skylar Thompson to the ground four times last week.
Joe Mixon could only manage 3.5 yards per carry against the Ravens third-ranked rush defense.
- Now he faces Buffalo's fourth-ranked rush defense, which has held opposing offenses to just 76 rush yards per game and 3.2 YPR over the past three weeks.
- A weak pass blocker, Mixon could be swapped out for Samaje Perine more often Sunday afternoon.
In his past five games, kicker Evan McPherson has missed three extra points and one field including an XP in the win over the Ravens.

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

Two of the most efficient offenses on third down and inside red zone meet in this divisional playoff game. Both the Bengals and Bills continued to move the chains consistently in their wins over the Dolphins and Ravens:

Bills 9-16 on 3rd down
Bengals 7-13 on 3rd down

Where things get interesting is the Bills third-down offense versus the Bengals 16th-ranked third-down defense. You don't want to provide Josh Allen extra lives, but allowing the Bills to convert on down and distance does exactly that.

Team	Off. 3rd Down Conversion Rate	Off. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)	Def. 3rd Down Conversion Rate	Def. RZ Conversion Rate (TD)	Sacks Allowed Per Game
Bengals	46.58% (3rd)	66.10% (5th)	39.01 (16th)	50.00% (5th)	2.8 (25th)
Bills	50.72% (1st)	61.29% (9th)	36.61% (6th)	45.28% (2nd)	2.4 (27th)

Plus, all eyes will be on the Bengals injury-riddled offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked four times by the Ravens pass rush and, not to be outdone, Allen sacked a season-high seven (7!) times by the Dolphins last week.

Bills News and Notes

Buffalo has won eight straight games.
- Averaging 29.3 points per game during the streak.
- The OVER has hit in four straight.
Josh Allen has thrown five interceptions in the past three games.
Tight end Dawson Knox has caught a touchdown in five consecutive games.
- The Bengals defense allowed an average of six receptions for 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.
- Mark Andrews caught a team-high five passes for a team-high 73 yards in the Wild Card playoff game.
Forecast: temps in the mid-30s with a chance of flurries and light wind.

Betting Pick: Bills -4.5 or Bengals Teaser +10.5

While stating the obvious, the play of the Bengals offensive line will be critical to the outcome of this game. Joe Mixon has played well, but isn't a pass blocker. So, we'll likely see more of Samaje Perine on pass plays, which may tip the hand of the play call. Buffalo hasn't looked as crisp as it would like, but think they take care of business at home and set-up a likely AFC Championship matchup with the Chiefs.